000
FXUS61 KOKX 021959
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
359 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure settles over the area tonight and slides offshore into
Monday morning. A weak low pressure north of the area allows a
cold front to approach and briefly stall near the region
Tuesday, moving south of the area Tuesday night. The boundary
then moves north of the area as a warm front Wednesday into
Wednesday night, with the associated cold front moving through
late Thursday into Thursday night. High pressure dominates for
the end of the week into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected through tonight
as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will continue to
diminish this evening, eventually become light and variable as high
pressure slides overhead. Clear skies and calm winds will result in
ideal conditions for radiational cooling overnight. This will result
in some locations having temperatures drop into the 20s, mainly for
interior areas away from the coast and typically colder spots. Some
spots around the NYC metro, where the growing season is ongoing, may
approach freezing as well. As a result, a Frost Advisory is in
effect for these areas tonight from midnight through 8AM for
temperatures 33 to 36 degrees.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to slide offshore Monday resulting in a
strengthening southerly return flow as a weak low pressure system
passes by well to the north. Southerly flow through the day will
allow for the increase of low level moisture as well as some WAA
bringing high temperatures into the 60s for the western portions of
the area and the middle 50s for Long Island and Southern Connecticut
with a flow off the cool ocean. By afternoon, S winds of 15-20 mph
with gusts to 30 mph are expected, especially along the coast. Cloud
cover will also increase into the afternoon as a weak mid-level
disturbance approaches from the west.
A weak cold front approaches the area from the north Monday night
but slows its southward progression as it get closer and looks to
weaken and stall north of the area. Any precipitation associated
with it should stay north, but a stray shower for the northernmost
areas can`t be ruled out. Lows will be in the middle to upper
40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Much of the long term can be characterized by light precipitation
events from Tuesday through Thursday. A cold front on approaches
Tuesday and lacks any real upper level support with zonal flow
aloft. Much of any rain will pass west to east across northern areas
of the forecast area such as the Lower Hudson Valley and inland
southern Connecticut. With an upper level ridge building into the
area from the west Tuesday night, and thus heights building, the
front will wash out late in the day Tuesday as it moves through the
rest of the forecast area.
Despite the lack of upper level support, an onshore flow may provide
enough moisture, mainly for eastern areas, for some showers or
possibly even drizzle with weak lift being provided by the frontal
boundary that will settle just south of the area Tuesday night.
As low pressure develops over the Northern Plains, a cold front
associated with it will slowly move toward the area from the mid-
West from Wednesday through Thursday. The frontal boundary that
moved south of the area meanwhile will lift north as a warm front
Wednesday into Wednesday night. The associated cold front will move
through late Friday into Friday night. With no real upper level
feature to aid in developing and lower level features during this
through Thursday, any precipitation will be based on where the warm
and cold fronts will be. There are some slight timing differences
with the models, but the best chances for precipitation looks to be
in association with the cold front Friday into Friday night, which
this far out is pretty well molded among the deterministic models.
Models show some surface based CAPE, mainly for New York City and
points north and west, so added a slight chance for thunderstorms.
However, it is too far out to predict if they will be severe. Gusty
SW flow ahead of the cold front and gusty NW winds behind the front
can be expected.
High pressure builds in for the end of the week and remains in
control into next weekend.
As far as temperatures, they are expected to be above normal Tuesday
through Thursday. Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are forecast
for areas away from the coast on Tuesday, with slightly cooler
conditions expected Wednesday thanks to more cloud cover. Thursday
will be the warmest day as heights rise with the area warm sectored.
Inland areas will likely reach the lower 70s. Onshore flow for
coastal areas will keep temperatures in the 60s and even some 50s
for the Twin Forks. Temperatures fall to more seasonable levels
after the cold for the end of the week into next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds over the area tonight and then offshore by
morning. Low pressure passes well northwest of the area on Monday.
VFR through the period.
NW winds will continue to gradually diminish through this evening.
Winds become northerly at 10 kt or less by early this evening and
then go light and variable overnight as high pressure moves into the
area. Winds then become southerly Monday with G20-25kt by early
afternoon. Seabreeze enhancement likely at KJFK in the late
afternoon with sustained winds around 20 kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts this afternoon/eve could vary 1-2 hours from
TAF.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Afternoon: VFR. S-SW winds 15-20kt G20-25 kt, diminishing
at night.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR.
Tuesday Night-Wednesday: Ceilings lowering to IFR at night with
a chance of light rain or drizzle.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: MVFR to IFR with a chance of showers.
Isolated thunderstorm possible inland Thursday afternoon. SW
gusts 15-20 kt Thursday, becoming W-NW at night.
Friday: VFR. W-NW G20kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Small craft advisory conditions on the ocean with waves near 5 feet
area expected through the evening before sub-SCA conditions are
expected everywhere overnight. Increased southerly flow on Monday
will likely result in SCA conditions during the afternoon and into
the evening. All waters may see gusts upwards of 25 to 30 kt. Wave
heights will remain at or above 5 feet through Monday night so SCA
lingers on the ocean into the evening.
Winds and seas look to be below SCA criteria through Wednesday.
Waves on the ocean build Wednesday night in response to
increased southerly flow. Waves build to 4 to 6 ft. Gusts of 25
to 30 kt are possible for the ocean and eastern bays and the
eastern sound through Thursday and into the first half of
Thursday night. Waves on the ocean diminish Thursday night as
well, and fall below 5 ft late Thursday night as high pressure
builds in from the west.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic concerns are expected through next weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for
NYZ073-074-177-179.
NJ...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Monday for
NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JP/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW