000
FXUS61 KOKX 032004
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches tonight, stalling just to the north of the
area Tuesday. The weakening boundary may sag south into the area
Tuesday night. Deepening low pressure over the Upper Midwest
Wednesday will lift northeast across eastern Canada through the
end of the week, sending a warm front across the area Wednesday,
then a cold front on Thursday. High pressure will build in for
the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes well to the north of the region and into the
Canadian Maritimes tonight, with an attendant cold front
approaching the area from the north. A bit of a breeze persists
into early evening with a tightened pressure gradient between
the offshore high and low passing north. This gradient weakens
this evening, with the flow relaxing in response.
The approaching boundary should slow and weaken as the parent low
begins to fill, and the limited impacts remain largely north of
the area through tonight. It`s possible a sprinkle or shower
sneaks into parts of the Lower Hudson Valley or interior
southern Connecticut overnight, but chances and coverage appear
low overall, and have excluded an explicit mention for now.
Winds lighten inland with the nearby front, but should remain
persistently southerly along the coast, helping maintain
additional cloud cover here. Temperatures run above normal
tonight, bottoming out in the mid-to-upper 40s for most by
daybreak.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Into midweek, deep troughing digs across the Western US, with
building heights over the East. Exiting low pressure over the
Canadian Maritimes leaves behind a weakening frontal boundary that
meanders nearby Tuesday.
Onshore flow continues on Tuesday, and temperatures aloft nudge
upwards on with the southerly flow, though the wind off the
relatively cooler ocean waters may hold down temperatures at the
surface just a bit more than they would be otherwise. Mildest air
will be inland away from the immediate coast and the maritime
influence, with around 70 expected in NE NJ, and about 10 degrees
cooler along the immediate shoreline.
The quasi-stationary boundary near or just north of the region will
serve as a focus for clouds as it weakens, but little more, and the
entire region should remain dry through the day. Building surface
high pressure over Canada shoves what remains of the boundary
south as a backdoor front Tuesday night and backs the flow more
easterly across the region. Weak forcing and increasing moisture
with this persistent return flow may allow for some light rain
or drizzle to develop Tuesday night, though coverage looks
spotty. Low stratus development along the coast should help keep
low temperatures relatively mild and uniform region-wide,
generally ranging from the mid 40s inland, to the lower 50s in
the urban metro. With subtle adjustments, largely stuck close to
national blended guidance for this update.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another springtime closed upper low will lift across the Upper
Midwest on Wednesday, then across eastern Canada through the end of
the week. At the surface, deepening low pressure will follow in
tandem, sending a frontal system toward the area. A warm front will
approach on Wednesday, then lift through Wednesday night, followed
by a cold frontal passage Thursday. Global models are in decent
agreement during this time with the large scale features.
Light rain/or drizzle, along with areas of fog, can be expected on
Wednesday. The area gets into the warm sector Wednesday night with a
chance of showers/isolated thunder, but more widespread convection
is expected along and ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon.
High pressure follows for the weekend into early next week. There
are some differences in the global models with the amplification of
the southern branch and how quickly the high builds offshore next
week as another slow moving cutoff works east.
Near seasonable temperatures on Wednesday will be followed by much
above normal temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday as the area
gets into the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. Highs
away from the immediate coast on Thursday will push well into the
70s, as much as 20 degrees above normal.
Behind the cold front, temperatures Friday through the weekend will
be closer to seasonable levels for this time of year.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Offshore high pressure continues to move east through tonight, then
remains in the western Atlantic Tuesday. A cold front approaches
north of the terminals late tonight.
VFR, except brief MVFR ceilings possible at KGON toward Tuesday
morning.
Southerly winds, with gusts, continue with sea breeze enhancement
this afternoon. Winds diminish after 00Z, even becoming light and
variable at the outlying terminals.
morning. Southerly winds develop Tuesday morning 10kt or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts possible at KJFK. Gusts at KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA may
be a few kts higher through late afternoon.
Winds at KLGA become light E and NE late tonight.
Low confidence in any low clouds developing late tonight, and
removed from the forecast.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night: VFR. MVFR developing, and lowering
to IFR in the evening, LIFR possible toward Wednesday morning. Light
rain possible late at night.
Wednesday: IFR likely. A chance of light rain or drizzle.
Thursday: MVFR, possibly IFR. Chance of showers, with a slight
chance of a thunderstorms. Improving to VFR late at night. SW gusts
15-20kt, becoming W-NW at night.
Friday: VFR. W-NW G20-25kt.
Saturday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Elevated southerly flow produces marginal SCA gusts on all waters
into early this evening. Gusts and 4 to 6 ft seas on the ocean may
linger into the overnight before subsiding. Sub-SCA conditions
return everywhere by Tuesday morning, persisting through
Wednesday.
A strengthening southerly flow Wednesday night into Thursday will
bring SCA conditions to the ocean. All waters then could see a
marginal SCA in a NW flow following a cold frontal passage Thursday
night into Friday. High pressure then follows for the weekend with
sub-SCA conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DW
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR/DW
HYDROLOGY...DR/DW