000
FXUS61 KOKX 041115
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
715 AM EDT Tue Apr 4 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front slowly approaches from the north today and
eventually settles into the area tonight. By late tonight, the
front slowly moves farther south where it will stall through
Wednesday. The front returns north as a warm front Wednesday
night. A cold front approaches on Thursday and moves across
Thursday night. High pressure will build in Friday into the
weekend before beginning to depart next Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track this morning. Just some lowered some
temperatures for some locations to better match observed trends.
Adjusted the patchy fog downward also.
Some morning patchy fog will dissipate with increasing daytime
insolation. The pressure gradient remains weak so sea breezes
will easily develop. With high pressure offshore, some
enhancement is expected to the southerly flow along the coast
for late this afternoon.
Max temperatures were a blend of MAVs and the NBM 50th
percentile, ranging from the low 60s to the low 70s for much of
the area. Once again, the marine influence will be felt with a
vast range of temperatures between Long Island and Southeast
Connecticut compared to Northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson
Valley.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
For tonight, the weakening cold front moves into the area from
the north. Winds will have a change in direction but stay light.
The winds transition from more southerly to eventually more
easterly and northeasterly. With the weak front moving in, there
are forecast increases in the chances of light rain. Forecast
lows stay relatively warmer, ranging from mainly the mid 40s to
low 50s.
Forecast soundings show moisture in the low levels with drier
air aloft, so the precipitation could very well be more drizzle
as opposed to light rain. With the increasing low level
moisture, expecting widespread low stratus to develop. With all
the stratus and some increase in winds, this could disrupt fog
from becoming too expansive but have included patchy fog in the
forecast due to increasing low level moisture. Dense fog will be
possible but confidence is low on this as the low level moisture
is thought to be more low level stratus instead of fog.
For Wednesday, the front stalls out south of the area. The winds
remain easterly and increase during the day as high pressure
builds to the north and east of the area. There will be an
increase in moisture beneath a low level inversion. This will
keep low clouds and patchy fog as well as light rain and drizzle
in the area. Expect a damp and very cool day with forecast highs
only reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s.
For Wednesday night, expecting a continuation of low level
moisture, patchy fog and occasional light rain or drizzle.
However, the front will start to move back north as a warm
front, resulting in temperatures not changing much, in the
lower 50s towards early Thursday. Here, the fog could be more
expansive with some low level warm air and moisture advection
Wednesday night. Fog could be dense once again and feel this
possibility of dense fog is greater for Wednesday night compared
to tonight.
For Thursday, behind the warm front, some substantial warm air
advection on increasing southerly flow expected. East to west
gradient in forecast temperatures, with upper 70s across
Northeast NJ and into Lower Hudson Valley contrasting with mid
to upper 50s across the Twin Forks of Long Island. A cold front
will be approaching from the north and west during the day. The
front moves across early Thursday night. There will be showers
and a chance of thunderstorms with instability ahead of the cold
front. Conditions dry out Thursday night behind the cold front
from west to east as winds switch to a more westerly flow.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes made to the long term Friday through next
Monday.
The cold front that impacts the area on Thursday will continue
pushing well south and east on Friday as high pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes region. The high then dominates the surface
pattern this weekend. Aloft, broad troughing persists Friday into
Saturday before ridging builds in on Sunday. Dry weather and
temperatures closer to seasonable levels will result Friday through
the weekend. Gusty NW winds 25 to 30 mph are possible on Friday as
the high builds in, but winds should be relatively light over the
weekend.
The evolution of the large scale pattern becomes more uncertain to
start next week. The latest model consensus has the surface high
starting to move offshore, but lingering ridging may hold on during
Monday. There may be an approaching upper trough, but the timing and
amplitude are showing little run-to-run consistency. Followed the
NBM PoPs for Monday which yield just a 20 percent chance at night.
Temperatures look to trend above normal to start the week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front stalls nearby to the terminals today. The front
then sags south of the terminals tonight into early Wednesday
morning.
Mainly VFR through 00z. Conditions will then lower tonight,
becoming IFR and LIFR early Wednesday morning. Drizzle or
sprinkles are possible late tonight and early Wednesday morning.
Light flow to begin to the TAF period will become SE to S from
late morning into the afternoon around 10 kt or less. Some
inland terminals may see winds become more SW for a time this
afternoon. Winds should then become E-NE tonight as the cold
front sags southward.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds at KLGA this morning may shift to the SE 1-2 hours
quicker than forecast
Adjustments likely to ceilings and visibilities for tonight into
early Wednesday morning. There is a chance the lower conditions
will be from ceilings with visibilities possibly staying MVFR or
VFR.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: LIFR in the morning, becoming IFR, possibly MVFR in the
afternoon. A chance of light rain or drizzle. E gusts 15-20 kt
possible.
Wednesday Night-Thursday: MVFR or lower possible Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. MVFR-VFR Thursday afternoon and night. Chance
of showers, with a slight chance of a thunderstorms Wednesday night,
showers likely slight chance thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and
evening. SW gusts 15-20kt, becoming W-NW at Thursday night.
Friday-Saturday: VFR. W-NW G20-25kt on Friday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, conditions
are expected to remain below SCA thresholds on the forecast
waters today through Wednesday. SCA conditions become more
probable across the ocean Wednesday night with an increasing
easterly flow. Non-ocean waters expected to remain below SCA
Wednesday night. Non-ocean waters forecast to remain below SCA
Thursday into Thursday night with SCA conditions becoming more
likely on the ocean for the same time period.
SCA conditions are possible on Friday as high pressure builds in
bringing gusts around 25 kt on the waters. Some marginal SCA gusts
could linger east of Moriches Inlet Friday night. Otherwise, sub-SCA
conditions are expected through the weekend with high pressure in
control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DS
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/DS
HYDROLOGY...DS