000
FXUS61 KOKX 051815
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
215 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front south of Long Island will will return
northward as a warm front tonight, eventually moving north of
the region by early Thursday. A cold front will approach on
Thursday and move through late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
night. High pressure will then gradually build from the
northwest late Thursday night through the weekend, and slide
offshore by early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made some slight adjustments to temperatures and dewpoints to
better match observed trends. Decreased chances of light rain
and made areas of very light drizzle the main weather parameter
for many coastal locations going through this morning. Forecast
soundings show most moisture only up through first 2 kft above
ground with relatively drier air above that.
A very cool and increasingly damp day is expected across the
coastal and eastern sections of the region as surface flow from
the east advects in a cooler maritime airmass across the region.
Locations in Northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley are
forecast to be relatively warmer compared to farther east in the
area so not nearly as damp in Northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson
Valley. Looking for temperatures to stay mostly in the 50s for
the high temperature forecast today.
Models are coherent on depicting a few hundredths of an inch of
rainfall across coastal Connecticut and Long Island. This is
where temperatures will be relatively the coolest and where more
of the light rain and drizzle will be located. Both light rain
and drizzle are mentioned this afternoon with the variance of
vertical depth of moisture indicated in the forecast soundings
between saturation of just a few thousand feet to near
saturation of up to 3 to 5 kft. Mesoscale models also depict for
eastern parts of the area, more larger discrete areas of rain in
their reflectivity fields for this afternoon.
With the increasing moisture, there will be fog especially along
the coast but more patchy away from the coast. Along the coast,
some patchy dense fog is possible this morning. As moisture
increases with any light rain or drizzle today, would expect
this fog to form farther inland this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
For tonight, the front south of Long Island gradually returns
north as a warm front.
The surface flow transitions from easterly to more southerly.
There will be continuing chances of light rain or drizzle, but
would expect a more expansive fog as well due to low level warm
and moist air advection occurring with the more southerly flow.
The fog could once again be potentially dense.
The warm front is expected to move north of the region early
Thursday and that will place the area in the warm sector. There
will be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms as a
cold front approaches and moves into the area due to growing
instability.
Temperature rebound substantially on Thursday with increasing SW
flow and increased warm air advection ahead of an approaching
cold front. This will be most pronounced across the interior
sections of the region in Southwest Connecticut, the Lower
Hudson Valley, and Northeast NJ as well as some northern and
western parts of NYC where more vertical mixing is expected.
High temperatures forecast for these aforementioned locations
are in the mid to upper 70s with some locations in Northeast NJ
reaching near 80. Meanwhile, farther east and along the coast,
more of a marine influence will be seen with forecast high
temperatures staying mostly in the 60s but a little cooler for
the Twin Forks of Long Island. Another factor leading to the
cooler temperatures farther east for the coastal sections will
also be the lingering low clouds and fog.
The cold front moves across late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening and will push farther offshore late Thursday
night. Showers will taper off from northwest to southeast along
with any thunder.
The forcing with the cold front has increasing bulk shear
between 0 and 6 km above the ground to near 50 kt but the
instability will be quite limited. This is also related to the
moisture content of the atmosphere as diagnosed from the
precipitable water. Both the precipitable water and instability
are higher to the south and west of the area. Model BUFKIT wind
profiles also indicate shear that is not consistent in the way
of wind direction and speed. Less organized convection may very
well be the result which is indicated by some mesoscale models.
So, some strong thunderstorms will be possible with higher
potential for severe to the southwest of the forecast region.
For Friday, high pressure gradually builds in from the north and
west. Dry conditions will remain across the region but there
will be lingering clouds as a mid level trough remains in the
Northeast but will not be that amplified.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The weekend will be dry as a 1035 mb surface high pressure
builds in from the Great Lakes. Gusty NW winds lower over the
weekend. With the northwest flow, temperatures will be cooler
during this time, generally 50s and lower 60s, with increasing
sun through Sunday.
The evolution of the large scale pattern becomes more uncertain to
start next week. The latest model consensus has the surface high
starting to move offshore, but lingering ridging may hold on during
Monday. There may be an approaching upper trough, but the timing and
amplitude continue to have little consistency. Generally stuck close
to national blended guidance for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Stationary front to the south lifts north as a warm front late
tonight into Thursday, followed by a cold front Thursday afternoon
into evening.
IFR/MVFR through this afternoon, lowering to IFR everywhere tonight.
Some drizzle this afternoon from KLGA/KJFK to points east.
Improvement to VFR generally west to east on Thursday, but with
a chance of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon/early
evening.
E or ENE winds around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt for
KJFK/KLGA/KHPN and points east this afternoon. Other terminals
will be closer to 10kt. Winds shift SE-S tonight. LLWS for all
but KSWF late tonight with winds at 2kft SW at 40-50kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Chance that KEWR/KTEB remain IFR all night without improvement
to MVFR. Occasional gusts around 20 kt possible at KLGA through
this afternoon. Chance that gusts at KJFK are only occasional.
VSBYs 1/2sm or lower potentially prevail for a few hours this
evening. Low confidence in vsbys, low to moderate confidence in
cigs, moderate to high confidence in winds except regarding
if/when warm front shifts north tonight with winds backing
southerly.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday aftn/early evening: VFR with chc TSTM and MVFR. NW
gusts 20-25 kt outside of TSTMs.
Thursday overnight: VFR.
Friday: VFR. NW gusts around 20kt late morning and around 25kt
aftn.
Saturday-Monday:VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Trimmed back marine dense fog advy to the western ocean waters
per beach cams. Also issued SCA for this afternoon for all by
NY Harbor as low level inversion breaks and E flow gusts up to
25-30 kt, highest on the eastern ocean/Sound waters, with ocean
seas E of Fire Island Inlet as high as 5 ft.
Dense fog will be possible once again tonight for all the
forecast waters. This could expand from the ocean waters to the
non-ocean waters.
After a short lull late today, SCA conditions should redevelop
tonight on the ocean and continue into Thursday. The non ocean
waters should remain below SCA thresholds through Thursday.
SCA conditions for wind gusts could spread to most waters
Thursday night with ocean SCA seas probably continuing.
SCA conditions are then possible on all waters Friday into
Friday night as high pressure builds in, potentially bringing
NW flow gusting up to 25 kt. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on
all waters through the weekend with high pressure in control.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
332-335-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353-
355.
Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JM/DR
NEAR TERM...BG/JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/JM/DR
HYDROLOGY...JM