000
FXUS61 KOKX 061754
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
154 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front over the area will jump north by early this
afternoon. A cold front will then approach from the west and
move through this evening. High pressure will then build from
the west through Friday night and settle over the area for the
weekend. High pressure dominates the area for much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Earlier dense fog across central/eastern Long Island, much of
southern CT, and back into parts of the Hudson Valley has burned
off, leaving a mid level cloud deck trapped beneath an weak H7
inversion in its wake. Temps mostly in the 50s beneath this
desk, but rising quickly through the 60s on its southern and
western fringe. Followed HRRR forecast of rapidly rising temps
this afternoon, aided by downslope W flow. Now expect temps to
reach at least 80 everywhere form NYC north/west, with mid 80s
in parts of NYC farthest from the ocean/Sound, and also in much
of NE NJ and S Westchester.
A few showers may skirt northern sections mid afternoon, then
showers and isolated tstms could accompany the front as it
moves through from NW-SE from about 6-10 PM. Instability looks
meager due to poor mid level lapse rates so expect non-severe
activity, but any stronger cell that manage to overcome these
conditions in the NYC metro area could still produce gusty winds
given strong deep layer vertical shear, dry sub-cloud air and
steep low level lapse rates.
Guidance then also continues to show weak wave development
skirting the coast, forced by convectively induced shortwave
energy riding up through the TN river valley and the mid
Atlantic, and approaching the right rear quad of an upper jet.
So post-frontal showers and a few rumbles of thunder may occur
tonight mostly from the NYC metro area eastward.
In terms of temps, confidence remains high in warmest temps so
far this year in many places given downslope flow in an early
Spring pre-greenup environment, with daily record high temps
likely for EWR/NYC/LGA and possible for the remaining sites
depending on position of a pre-frontal trough this afternoon
and cold fropa timing. This air mass produced mid 80s temps in
the nation`s capital and southern Delaware (away from coast)
yesterday.
Elsewhere, temps should be able to rise into the 70s away from
southern and eastern coasts. Temps likely hold in the lower to
mid 60s right along the south facing coasts and across the
forks of Long Island with greater marine influence and slow to
scour stratus. A typical early spring 20+ degree variation in
temp from immediate coast to interior is likely today.
Cold front shifts far enough offshore late tonight to dry the
area out. Otherwise, steady cold advection on a gusty NW flow
tonight, with temps falling to near 50 in NYC and into 40s
elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Gradual deepening of longwave northern stream troughing through
the period as a series of weak shortwaves moves through
northern New England.
First in series of shortwaves slowly crosses northern New
England on Friday. Gusty CAA NW flow on Friday in wake of cold
frontal passage, with considerable jet mid- high deck streaming
thru the area. A return towards more seasonable temps likely on
Fri.
A couple more weak shortwaves/weak cold fronts cross the region
this weekend, with Canadian high pressure progressively
building into the region. These passages will be dry, resulting
in seasonable temps Sat and Sun, with good radiational cooling
conditions for outlying areas at night.
Models in fairly good agreement with the last of the series
digging shortwave on Sunday, phasing with southern stream
shortwave energy, but well south and east of the region. This
will keep resultant coastal low pressure development across the
SE/Southern Mid Atlantic and heading offshore.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The extended forecast will be dominated by a strong surface high
pressure system under an associated upper level ridge. This will
result in dry and clear conditions from Monday through Friday of
next week. Winds will generally be from the South/Southwest/West
through this timeframe at 10 to 15 mph everyday. This will allow for
a favorable flow for much of the area to see above normal
temperatures through much of the timeframe.
Temperatures as a whole will be above average with the exception of
eastern Long Island and the immediate southern coastal areas as the
ocean remains cold. Highs on Monday will be close to average with
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s for much of the area.
Persistent sunshine and SW flow will bring a warming trend through
late week. Highs on Tuesday increase to the low 60s for Long Island
and coastal areas to the low 70s for inland areas to the west. By
Wednesday and Thursday, inland area will be rising into the upper
70s and possibly low 80s. Eastern areas during this time will be
cooler but still above average, generally seeing temperatures in the
middle 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front has started to push north of the area terminals
early this afternoon. The front will continue to lift north,
followed by a cold front moving across the region from west to
east late this afternoon into early evening.
With the front lifting to the north, conditions have improved
to VFR everywhere, except EWR, where some lower vsbys keep them
MVFR. They too, should improve to VFR shortly.
A cold front is then expected to move across the area terminals
later this evening. Showers will develop along and ahead of this
front. Some MVFR conditions will be possible in any showers this
evening. There is also a chance of some thunder late this afternoon,
with the best chances at KEWR and KJFK. Have added thunder back to
these TAFs. While the chances still remain rather low, there is
still a non-zero chance. Timing for any convection looks to be 22-
01z. Showers may persist behind the frontal passage before coming to
an end from 04-06Z Friday. Fair amount of uncertainty in the
coverage of post-frontal showers after 00Z.
Wind direction will vary anywhere from south/southwest near the
coast to westerly a bit more inland. These wins will gradually
shift to the NW this evening behind a cold frontal passage. A
few gusts to 20 kt are possible this afternoon and again with
the passage of the front. A better chance for wind gusts will be
during the day Friday when gusts between 20-25kt become likely
from mid morning through the afternoon. A few gusts to near 30kt
can not be ruled out.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance but TSRA possible from 23-01Z. Best chances will be
at KEWR and KJFK. Occasional gusts possible this evening.
Occasional wind gusts on Friday may be higher than forecast.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.
Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
SCA cancelled as ocean seas had fallen to 3-4 ft. Marine dense
fog advy remains in effect for the eastern waters into this
afternoon, for widespread vsby less than 1 nm. The fog there may
burn off temporarily, and then come back this evening before
cold fropa.
A brief period of gusts up to 25 kt is possible this evening in
wake of cold frontal passage, and again Fri eve in wake of
secondary cold fropa.
Otherwise, sub-SCA conds expected into early next week with
high pressure exerting control.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Potential for enhanced brush fire spread on Friday with NW winds
gusting 20-25 mph min RH values in the 20s. An extended period
of dry conditions will continue into this weekend with min RH
values in the 20s, although frequent wind gusts should remain
below 20 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high and fcst temps for today:
Record Fcst
EWR 80 1947 87
NYC 79 1947* 85
LGA 80 1947 83
JFK 73 2010 72
ISP 71 2010* 73
BDR 70 1991 68
* Also in previous years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/NV/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BC/MW
MARINE...BG/NV/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/NV/MW
CLIMATE...