000
FXUS61 KOKX 062102
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
502 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front approaching from the west will move through
tonight. High pressure will then build from the west through
Friday night and settle over the area for the weekend into much
of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Cold front moving into Orange County attm accompanied by sct
showers. Instability meager per latest mesoanalysis so thunder
unlikely, but can`t totally rule out a rumble of thunder, also
some gusty winds with any showers from NYC north/west given dry
blyr, steeper low level lapse rates, and WINDEX values 30-40
kt.
Weak wave development skirting the coast should lead to likely
post-frontal showers from NYC east into Long Island and S CT for
tonight, while interior portions of the lower Hudson Valley
remain mostly dry.
Cold front shifts far enough offshore late tonight to dry the
area out. Otherwise, steady cold advection on a gusty NW flow
tonight, with temps falling to near 50 in NYC and into the 40s
elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Gradual deepening of longwave northern stream troughing through
the period as a series of weak shortwaves moves through
northern New England.
First in series of shortwaves slowly crosses northern New
England on Friday. Gusty CAA NW flow on Friday in wake of cold
frontal passage, with considerable jet-induced high/mid level
clouds streaming across. A return to more seasonable temps
likely daytime Fri, with highs in the lower 60s. Lows Fri night
as winds diminish should range from 35-40 in/around NYC, to the
upper 20s in outlying areas.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The weekend begins with a zonal flow aloft which will become
slightly cyclonic Saturday night into Sunday morning with the help
of a shortwave. Deep-layered ridging then follows Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Some troughing occurs on Tuesday, followed by
ridging for Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, high pressure
dominates through the entire long term forecast period with perhaps
a weak trough nearby Tuesday into Wednesday.
Dry weather for the entire period. High temperatures will be about 5
degrees below normal for Saturday and only slights warmer for
Sunday. High temperatures then moderate more significantly Monday
through Thursday with low 80s inland and 70s for most coastal areas
on Thursday. NBM was used for highs except on Wednesday where
roughly the 75th percentile NBM was used based on progged 850mb
temps and surface winds.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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A warm front has push north of the area terminals. A cold front will
move across the region from west to east late this afternoon into
early evening.
With the front lifting to the north, conditions have improved to VFR
everywhere. A cold front is then expected to move across the area
terminals later this evening. Showers will develop along and ahead
of this front. Some MVFR conditions will be possible in any showers
this evening. There is also a chance of some thunder late this
afternoon, with the best chances at KEWR and KJFK. Have added
thunder back to these TAFs. While the chances still remain rather
low, there is still a non-zero chance. Timing for any convection
looks to be 22-01z. Showers may persist behind the frontal passage
before coming to an end from 04-06Z Friday. Fair amount of
uncertainty in the coverage of post-frontal showers after 00Z.
Wind direction will vary anywhere from south/southwest near the
coast to westerly a bit more inland. These wins will gradually
shift to the NW this evening behind a cold frontal passage. A
few gusts to 20 kt are possible this afternoon and again with
the passage of the front. A better chance for wind gusts will be
during the day Friday when gusts between 20-25kt become likely
from mid morning through the afternoon. A few gusts to near 30kt
can not be ruled out.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low chance but TSRA possible from 23-01Z. Best chances will be
at KEWR and KJFK. Occasional gusts possible this evening.
Occasional wind gusts on Friday may be higher than forecast.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday: VFR. NW G20-25kt.
Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub SCA cond expected on all waters through Fri AM. Dense fog to
the south may creep back into the ocean waters this evening
ahead of a cold frontal passage. A few tstms may also be
possible on the ocean waters tonight, depending on how activity
over the Mid Atlantic evolves going into this evening.
NW winds increase daytime Fri, and issued SCA for NY Harbor and
the nearshore ocean water W of Fire Island Inlet for gusts up to
25 kt. These gusty winds may spread to the ocean waters Fri
night.
Offshore winds diminish Saturday morning with high pressure
building into the region, then shift SW-S with the synoptic
flow and sea breeze development. Sub-advisory conditions through
the day, and continuing through Tuesday as a high pressure ridge
remains nearby.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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After collab with NY/CT fire wx partners issued a red flag
watch for Friday from 10 AM until 9 PM. NW winds gusting to 25
mph and RH as low as 20 percent should lead to enhanced
potential for fire growth/spread. Issued SPS farther south as
potential may be limited by wetting rains tonight.
An extended period of dry conditions will continue into next
week with daytime min RH values in the 20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
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Daily record highs set today:
Record
NYC 79 2023*
JFK 74 2023
EWR 81 2023
ISP 78 2023
* Also in previous years-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for CTZ005>012.
NY...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for NYZ211.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ338-
355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC/MW
MARINE...JC/BG
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
CLIMATE...