000
FXUS61 KOKX 070021
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
821 PM EDT Thu Apr 6 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaching from the west will move through
tonight. High pressure will then build from the west through
Friday night and settle over the area for the weekend into much
of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast has been adjusted mainly for PoPs, but no significant
changes here as the expectation is for more showers to develop
along and behind a cold front currently passing through. These
showers will mainly be confined to the coast through the early
morning hours. Weak wave development skirting the coast should
lead to likelihood of post-frontal showers from NYC east into
Long Island and S CT for tonight, while interior portions of the
lower Hudson Valley remain mostly dry. Instability is still
low, so only a chance of a thunderstorm - mainly over the ocean.
Cold front shifts far enough offshore late tonight to dry the
area out. Otherwise, steady cold advection on a gusty NW flow
tonight, with temps falling to near 50 in NYC and into the 40s
elsewhere.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Gradual deepening of longwave northern stream troughing through
the period as a series of weak shortwaves moves through
northern New England.
First in series of shortwaves slowly crosses northern New
England on Friday. Gusty CAA NW flow on Friday in wake of cold
frontal passage, with considerable jet-induced high/mid level
clouds streaming across. A return to more seasonable temps
likely daytime Fri, with highs in the lower 60s. Lows Fri night
as winds diminish should range from 35-40 in/around NYC, to the
upper 20s in outlying areas.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend begins with a zonal flow aloft which will become
slightly cyclonic Saturday night into Sunday morning with the help
of a shortwave. Deep-layered ridging then follows Sunday afternoon
through Monday. Some troughing occurs on Tuesday, followed by
ridging for Wednesday and Thursday. At the surface, high pressure
dominates through the entire long term forecast period with perhaps
a weak trough nearby Tuesday into Wednesday.
Dry weather for the entire period. High temperatures will be about 5
degrees below normal for Saturday and only slights warmer for
Sunday. High temperatures then moderate more significantly Monday
through Thursday with low 80s inland and 70s for most coastal areas
on Thursday. NBM was used for highs except on Wednesday where
roughly the 75th percentile NBM was used based on progged 850mb
temps and surface winds.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front will pass through the eastern terminals within the
hour. High pressure over the Midwest will then gradually build
in through the weekend.
This will mainly be a VFR forecast outside of brief MVFR
conditions with any showers impacting the coastal terminals
through the early morning hours.
NW winds 10-15 G20kt through the first half of the night, then
10 kt or less. Occasional G20kt will still be possible. Frequent
NW G20-25kt on Friday with a few higher gusts possible. Winds
generally at or right of 310 magnetic, but may for a time vary
to 10-20 degrees to the left in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional NW G15-20kt may persist through the night. A few
gusts on Friday may exceed 25kt on Friday afternoon.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Night: VFR. Chance of NW G20kt early in the evening.
Saturday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA cond expected on all waters through Fri AM. Dense fog to
the south may creep back into the ocean waters this evening
ahead of a cold frontal passage. A few tstms may also be
possible on the ocean waters tonight, depending on how activity
over the Mid Atlantic evolves going into this evening.
NW winds increase daytime Fri, and issued SCA for NY Harbor and
the nearshore ocean water W of Fire Island Inlet for gusts up to
25 kt. These gusty winds may spread to the ocean waters Fri
night.
Offshore winds diminish Saturday morning with high pressure
building into the region, then shift SW-S with the synoptic
flow and sea breeze development. Sub-advisory conditions through
the day, and continuing through Tuesday as a high pressure ridge
remains nearby.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
After collab with NY/CT fire wx partners issued a red flag
watch for Friday from 10 AM until 9 PM. NW winds gusting to 25
mph and RH as low as 20 percent should lead to enhanced
potential for fire growth/spread. Issued SPS farther south as
potential may be limited by wetting rains tonight.
An extended period of dry conditions will continue into next
week with daytime min RH values in the 20s.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record highs set today:
Record
NYC 79 2023*
JFK 74 2023
EWR 81 2023
ISP 78 2023
* Also in previous years
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for CTZ005>012.
NY...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
for NYZ211.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EDT Friday for ANZ338-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/BG
NEAR TERM...BG/JC
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/BG
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/BG
CLIMATE...