000
FXUS61 KOKX 071122
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 AM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Behind the cold front, high pressure builds into the area through
this weekend. High pressure remains in control for much of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track with only slight adjustments to temperatures
and dew points to reflect the most recent observations and
trends into the morning.
Behind the cold front that continues to push east, conditions
dry out and skies gradually clear with high pressure building
into the area from the west. Brisk NW flow today 10 - 15 mph
with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 mph possible. As a result of the
dry conditions and brisk winds, today features an elevated
chance of fire spread. A Red Flag warning is in effect for
Southern Connecticut through this evening with relative humidity
values near 20 percent. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect
for the Lower Hudson Valley. An SPS is in effect for NE NJ, NYC,
and Long Island. Highs today will be about average with highs
in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Winds weaken a bit tonight with skies becoming gradually
clearer as high pressure continues to build in. Lows will be in
the middle to upper 20s for the interior areas. Coastal areas
will only fall into the low middle to upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging and the center of the surface high pressure
move overhead this weekend with dry conditions and generally
clear skies. An approach of a disturbance to the south may
result in some additional cloud cover Saturday and into early
Sunday but otherwise, minimal impact is expected. High
temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to
middle 50s. Generally weak or calm winds at night under a mostly
clear sky will result in fairly good radiational cooling
conditions each night so low temperatures drop into the upper
20s for the interior and the low to middle 30s for the coast for
both Saturday and Sunday nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Shortwave ridging on Monday, will be followed by a couple of
northern stream shortwaves moving through northern New England Mon
Night into Tuesday Night. This brief troughing will give way to
upper ridging and unseasonable warmth for mid to late week. A large
cutoff upper low over the gulf states could lift towards the region
by the weekend.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure gradually slides southeast of
the region Mon. A couple of weak front passes through Tue and Tue
night, followed by southern high pressure building towards the area
Wed thru Fri as it slides offshore. Dry conditions through the
period, with seasonable temps on Monday, giving way to a significant
warning trend through mid week, with temps potentially 20-25 degrees
above normal away from south coasts by Thu and Fri. Have blended NBM
with NBM 75th percentile based on deep WSW flow, deep mixing to at
least 850 HPA temps of 10+C, and much of the region still in
pre/early green up.
Once caveat for late week will be progression of a deep southern
closed low for Fri into the weekend, potentially bringing increased
cloud cover to end the week and unsettled weather for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually builds in through the weekend.
VFR.
NW winds 10 to 15 kt for morning push (right of 310 mag), with
occasional G20-25kt possible. Frequent NW G20-25kt mid morning thru
the afternoon with a few higher gusts possible. NW gusts to 20 kt
likely for the evening push, gradually veering to the N and
subsiding to 10 kt or less after midnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
NW winds of 15-18G25 kt, generally at or right of 310 magnetic
for morning and evening push, but may for a time back to the
the left of 310 in the afternoon. A few gusts of 25+ kt possible
in the afternoon.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. N winds 10 kt or less, giving way to aft sea
breezes at coastal terminals.
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
NW winds increase this morning with SCA conditions possible for
NY Harbor and the nearshore ocean waters W of Fire Island Inlet
for gusts up to 25 kt. Conditions then fall below SCA tonight
for all waters.
Sub SCA winds likely through the early to mid week period under weak
pressure gradient regime, but easterly swells from an offshore storm
may have seas hovering around 4 to 5 ft during this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
After collab with NY/CT fire wx partners, issued a red flag
warning for today from 12 PM until 8 PM for Southern
Connecticut, and all NY zones. NW winds gusting to 25-30 mph
and RH as low as 20 percent should lead to enhanced potential
for fire growth/spread. Issued SPS for NE NJ based on fire
manager input on fuels.
An extended period of dry conditions will continue into next
week with daytime min RH values in the 20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
NYZ211>213.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening
for ANZ338-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...NV/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...NV/MW