000
FXUS61 KOKX 071743
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
143 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Behind the cold front, high pressure builds into the area through
this weekend. High pressure remains in control for much of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast remains on track with the drier air and gusty winds
remaining the primary concern for the afternoon due to
heightened potential for fire spread. Despite upper level cloud
cover, temperatures have risen enough for relative humidities
to fall largely into the teens to lower 30s, which combined
with gusty winds will maintain conditions favorable for fire
spread, should ignition occur. A Red Flag Warning remains in
effect for the Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, Long Island, and
Connecticut. An SPS is in effect for NE NJ, NYC, and Long
Island. Highs today will be about average with highs in the
upper 50s to low 60s.
Winds weaken a bit tonight with skies becoming gradually
clearer as high pressure continues to build in. Lows will be in
the middle to upper 20s for the interior areas. Coastal areas
will only fall into the low middle to upper 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging and the center of the surface high pressure
move overhead this weekend with dry conditions and generally
clear skies. An approach of a disturbance to the south may
result in some additional cloud cover Saturday and into early
Sunday but otherwise, minimal impact is expected. High
temperatures for both Saturday and Sunday will be in the low to
middle 50s. Generally weak or calm winds at night under a mostly
clear sky will result in fairly good radiational cooling
conditions each night so low temperatures drop into the upper
20s for the interior and the low to middle 30s for the coast for
both Saturday and Sunday nights.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shortwave ridging on Monday, will be followed by a couple of
northern stream shortwaves moving through northern New England Mon
Night into Tuesday Night. This brief troughing will give way to
upper ridging and unseasonable warmth for mid to late week. A large
cutoff upper low over the gulf states could lift towards the region
by the weekend.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure gradually slides southeast of
the region Mon. A couple of weak front passes through Tue and Tue
night, followed by southern high pressure building towards the area
Wed thru Fri as it slides offshore. Dry conditions through the
period, with seasonable temps on Monday, giving way to a significant
warning trend through mid week, with temps potentially 20-25 degrees
above normal away from south coasts by Thu and Fri. Have blended NBM
with NBM 25th percentile based on deep WSW flow, deep mixing to
at least 850 HPA temps of 10+C, and much of the region still in
pre/early green up.
Once caveat for late week will be progression of a deep southern
closed low for Fri into the weekend, potentially bringing increased
cloud cover to end the week and unsettled weather for the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually builds in through the weekend.
VFR through the TAF period.
NW winds 15 kt G20-25kt thru the afternoon with a few higher
gusts possible. Direction close to 310 magnetic much of the day,
perhaps just left into late afternoon, then gradually veering
to the N and subsiding to 10 kt or less after midnight. Sea
breezes develop Sat PM and turn flow southerly for coastal
terminals, largely after 17z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Direction may for a time back to the the left of 310 mag in the
afternoon. A few gusts of 25+ kt possible into early evening.
Timing of sea breeze wind shifts may be off by a couple of
hours.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. N winds 10 kt or less, giving way to aft sea
breezes at coastal terminals.
Sunday through Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
NW winds increase this morning with SCA conditions possible for
NY Harbor and the nearshore ocean waters W of Fire Island Inlet
for gusts up to 25 kt. Conditions then fall below SCA tonight
for all waters.
Sub SCA winds likely through the early to mid week period under weak
pressure gradient regime, but easterly swells from an offshore storm
may have seas hovering around 4 to 5 ft during this time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A red flag warning remains in effect for today from 12 PM until
8 PM for Southern Connecticut, and all NY zones. NW winds
gusting to 25-30 mph and RH as low as 20 percent should lead to
enhanced potential for fire growth/spread should ignition occur.
SPS remains in effect for NE NJ.
An extended period of dry conditions will continue into next
week with daytime min RH values in the 20s.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ338-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/MW
NEAR TERM...MD/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DR/NV
MARINE...NV/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...NV/MW