000
FXUS61 KOKX 071911
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
311 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds into the area through this weekend and
remains in control for much of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The main concern into the evening remains the dry and breezy
conditions across the area, enhancing the potential for fire
spread, should ignition occur. Conditions are expected to
improve into the evening as diurnal cooling occurs, allowing
relative humidities to increase. Additionally, gusts will
gradually diminish overnight as high pressure builds across the
area.
Despite upper level clouds somewhat lingering across the area,
the post frontal air mass with weakening winds will allow for
temperatures to fall to a few degrees below climatological
normals in the upper 20s to 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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The post frontal air mass will prevail on Saturday and Saturday
night, with temperatures remaining a few degrees below
climatological normals. Expect highs in the upper 40s to mid
50s, and lows in the upper 20s to 30s. Although minimum
relative humidities will once again fall into the 20s to near
30 during the day, much weaker winds should help to mitigate
any fire weather concerns.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A trough axis aloft shifts east of the forecast area on Sunday with
riding aloft by the end of the day and surface high pressure in
place. Dry with highs slightly below normal.
Deep-layered ridging on Monday will be followed by a couple of
northern stream shortwaves moving through northern New England
Monday night and Tuesday night. This brief troughing will give way
to upper ridging and unseasonable warmth for mid to late week.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure gradually slides southeast of
the region Monday. A couple of weak troughs pass through Tuesday and
Tuesday night, followed by southern high pressure building towards
the area Wednesday through Friday as it slides offshore. Dry
conditions through the period with a significant warning trend
through the period. High temps potentially 20-25 degrees above
normal away from south coasts by Thu and Fri. NBM temps looked
reasonable given wind direction and progged temps at the top of the
mixed layer.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in through the weekend.
VFR through the TAF period.
NW winds 15 kt G20-25kt thru the afternoon with a few higher
gusts possible. Direction close to 310 magnetic much of the day,
perhaps just left into late afternoon, then gradually veering
to the N and subsiding to 10 kt or less after midnight. Sea
breezes develop Sat PM and turn flow southerly for coastal
terminals, largely after 17z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Direction may for a time back to the the left of 310 mag in the
afternoon. A few gusts of 25+ kt possible into early evening.
Timing of sea breeze wind shifts may be off by a couple of
hours.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday: VFR. N winds 10 kt or less, giving way to aft sea
breezes at coastal terminals.
Sunday through Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
&&
.MARINE...
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NW winds will occasionally gust to near 20 kt tonight before
subsiding into the weekend as high pressure builds across the
waters.
Sub SCA winds are likely through the early to mid week period under
a weak pressure gradient regime, but easterly swells may have seas
hovering around 4 to 5 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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A red flag warning remains in effect for until 8 PM for
Southern Connecticut, and all NY zones. NW winds gusting to
25-30 mph and RH as low as 15 percent should lead to enhanced
potential for fire growth/spread should ignition occur. SPS
remains in effect for NE NJ.
An extended period of dry conditions will continue through the
weekend into early next week with daytime min RH values in the
20s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MD
NEAR TERM...MD/MW
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/MD
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MD