000
FXUS61 KOKX 072148
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
548 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through this weekend and
remains in control for much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The forecast is mainly on track with only minor adjustments made
to hourly temperatures, dewpoints and cloud cover.
The main concern into the evening remains the dry and breezy
conditions across the area, enhancing the potential for fire
spread, should ignition occur. Conditions are expected to
improve into the evening as diurnal cooling occurs, allowing
relative humidities to increase. Additionally, gusts will
gradually diminish overnight as high pressure builds across the
area.
Despite upper level clouds somewhat lingering across the area,
the post frontal air mass with weakening winds will allow for
temperatures to fall to a few degrees below climatological
normals in the upper 20s to 30s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The post frontal air mass will prevail on Saturday and Saturday
night, with temperatures remaining a few degrees below
climatological normals. Expect highs in the upper 40s to mid
50s, and lows in the upper 20s to 30s. Although minimum
relative humidities will once again fall into the 20s to near
30 during the day, much weaker winds should help to mitigate
any fire weather concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A trough axis aloft shifts east of the forecast area on Sunday with
riding aloft by the end of the day and surface high pressure in
place. Dry with highs slightly below normal.
Deep-layered ridging on Monday will be followed by a couple of
northern stream shortwaves moving through northern New England
Monday night and Tuesday night. This brief troughing will give way
to upper ridging and unseasonable warmth for mid to late week.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure gradually slides southeast of
the region Monday. A couple of weak troughs pass through Tuesday and
Tuesday night, followed by southern high pressure building towards
the area Wednesday through Friday as it slides offshore. Dry
conditions through the period with a significant warning trend
through the period. High temps potentially 20-25 degrees above
normal away from south coasts by Thu and Fri. NBM temps looked
reasonable given wind direction and progged temps at the top of the
mixed layer.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in through the weekend.
VFR through the TAF period.
NW winds 15 kt G20-25kt into early evening with a few higher gusts
possible. Direction close to 310 magnetic to start, then gradually
veering to the N and subsiding to 10 kt or less after midnight.
Sea breezes develop Sat PM and turn flow southerly for coastal
terminals, largely after 17z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Direction may for a time back to the the left of 310 mag into
early this evening. A few gusts of 25+ kt possible into early
evening.
Timing of sea breeze wind shifts on Saturday may be off by a
couple of hours.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Afternoon: VFR. Light NW flow inland, with seabreeze
development at the coastal terminals. Seabreeze may get into
KHPN by early evening.
Sunday through Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
&&
.MARINE...
NW winds will occasionally gust to near 20 kt tonight before
subsiding into the weekend as high pressure builds across the
waters.
Sub SCA winds are likely through the early to mid week period under
a weak pressure gradient regime, but easterly swells may have seas
hovering around 4 to 5 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A red flag warning remains in effect for until 8 PM for
Southern Connecticut, and all NY zones. NW winds gusting to
25-30 mph and RH as low as 15 percent should lead to enhanced
potential for fire growth/spread should ignition occur. SPS
remains in effect for NE NJ.
An extended period of dry conditions will continue through the
weekend into early next week with daytime min RH values in the
20s.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ211>213.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MD
NEAR TERM...JC/MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/MD
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MD