000
FXUS61 KOKX 080000
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
800 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the area through this weekend and
remains in control for much of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The forecast is mainly on track with only minor adjustments made
to hourly temperatures, dewpoints and cloud cover.
Building high pressure will allow for gradually diminishing
NW-N winds overnight.
Despite upper level clouds persisting across the area, the post
frontal airmass with weakening winds will allow for temperatures
to fall to a few degrees below climatological normals in the
upper 20s to 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The post frontal air mass will prevail on Saturday and Saturday
night, with temperatures remaining a few degrees below
climatological normals. Expect highs in the upper 40s to mid
50s, and lows in the upper 20s to 30s. Although minimum
relative humidities will once again fall into the 20s to near
30 during the day, much weaker winds should help to mitigate
any fire weather concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A trough axis aloft shifts east of the forecast area on Sunday with
riding aloft by the end of the day and surface high pressure in
place. Dry with highs slightly below normal.
Deep-layered ridging on Monday will be followed by a couple of
northern stream shortwaves moving through northern New England
Monday night and Tuesday night. This brief troughing will give way
to upper ridging and unseasonable warmth for mid to late week.
At the surface, Canadian high pressure gradually slides southeast of
the region Monday. A couple of weak troughs pass through Tuesday and
Tuesday night, followed by southern high pressure building towards
the area Wednesday through Friday as it slides offshore. Dry
conditions through the period with a significant warning trend
through the period. High temps potentially 20-25 degrees above
normal away from south coasts by Thu and Fri. NBM temps looked
reasonable given wind direction and progged temps at the top of the
mixed layer.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds in through the weekend.
VFR through the TAF period.
NW winds 10-15 kt G20kt early this evening will gradually veer
to the N and diminish to 10 kt or less by around midnight.
Winds will continue to weaken into Saturday afternoon with a
light NW flow inland and likely seabreeze development at the
coastal terminals. A weak seabreeze could get into KHPN by early
evening.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of seabreeze wind shifts on Saturday afternoon may be
off by a 1-2 hours.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday Night through Wednesday: VFR. SW-W G15-20kt Tue night
into Wed.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
&&
.MARINE...
NW winds will occasionally gust to near 20 kt tonight before
subsiding into the weekend as high pressure builds across the
waters.
Sub SCA winds are likely through the early to mid week period under
a weak pressure gradient regime, but easterly swells may have seas
hovering around 4 to 5 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An extended period of dry conditions will continue through the
weekend into early next week with daytime min RH values in the
20s.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through early next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MD
NEAR TERM...JC/MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC/MD
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JC/MD