000
FXUS61 KOKX 081050
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
650 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure builds into the area through this weekend and
remains in control for much of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The combination of mid and high level cloud cover and winds
staying up has caused temperatures to run a few degrees higher
than forecast. Have adjusted for this in latest update.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
High pressure builds in from the northwest today. Given the
orientation of the high, expect light northerly winds before
any afternoon sea breezes. This cool airmass will keep
temperatures about 5 degrees below normal for early April. Highs
will be in the low to mid 50s for most. The air will have a dry
feel with dewpoints bottoming out in the teens resulting in
minimum RH values around 20 percent.
Mid and high level cloud cover associated with a strong upper
level jet will hang around the area all day. The cloud cover
slowly shifts southeast tonight as a shortwave approaches.
Timing of clearing and thickness of the clouds will affect
tonight`s low temperatures. With light winds and a dry airmass,
any locations that get under some clearing will quickly drop in
temperature. Northern locations will see clearing earlier and
expecting lows in the mid 20s there. Farther south across NYC
and Long Island likely don`t see clearing until just before
daybreak.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control resulting in dry conditions. Mid-
level shortwave ridging builds in as the aforementioned trough
axis shifts offshore. By Sunday morning skies should be clear as
any high clouds shift south and east. Skies then likely remain
clear through Monday. Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than
Saturday, and the warming trend continues on Monday with highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Although clear skies are expected Sunday night, the flow
becomes southerly and moisture increases slightly. Therefore
Sunday night lows will likely be a few degrees warmer than
Saturday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Shortwave ridging Monday Night will be followed by a vigorous
northern stream shortwave passage through northern New England
Tuesday Night. This trough will slide east on Wednesday and give way
to upper ridging and unseasonable warmth for mid to late week. A
large cutoff upper low over the gulf states may shear towards the
region this weekend.
At the surface, sprawling southern US high pressure noses NE towards
the region Mon Night into Tue. A clipper low tracks SE through
northern New England Tue night, with pre-frontal trough crossing on
Tuesday and cold front Wed AM. Models have trended stronger with
this shortwave/cold front, with hints of an isolated shower or
sprinkle with passage. Main sensible weather impact may be gusty SW
winds Tue aft/night ahead of the front, and gusty NW winds in its
wake Wed, which will likely elevate fire weather concerns on Wed.
Temps on Tue will likely rise to near 10 degrees above seasonable
(upper 60s/lower 70s) level away from south coasts, and then 10 to
15 degrees above seasonable (lower to mid 70s) for much of the
region on Wed with likely offshore flow.
Thereafter, southern high pressure builds towards the area Wed Night
thru Fri as it slides offshore and gradually centers over Bermuda.
Dry conditions through the period, with a continued warming trend
through late week, with temps likely 20-25 degrees above normal away
from south coasts Thu and Fri, possibly into Sat. Have blended NBM
with NBM 75th percentile based on deep WSW flow, deep mixing to at
least 850 HPA temps of 10+C, and much of the region still in
pre/early green up.
Low predictability on evolution of a large but weak southern closed
low shearing NE for next weekend. This could bring the next chance
for unsettled weather.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure gradually builds in through the weekend.
VFR through the TAF period.
N winds 10 kt or less for morning push, give way to a light
W/NW flow inland and S seabreeze development at the coastal
terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of S/SE seabreeze wind shifts this afternoon may be off
by an hour or so.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: VFR. NE/E winds 10 kt or less.
Monday into Tuesday: VFR. W/SW winds 10kt or less, giving way
to aft seabreeze at coastal terminals.
Tuesday Night into Wednesday: VFR. SW G20-25kt Tue night,
becoming W/NW 20-30kt Wed.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions on all waters expected through Tuesday as
high pressure builds in this weekend.
Confidence then increases in SCA conds on the ocean waters Tue
Night/Wed as easterly swells from a slow moving offshore system
may have seas hovering around 4 to 5 ft, aided by marginal S/SW
SCA gusts Tue Night ahead of a cold front. Potential for SCA
nearshore gusts on all waters Wed in wake of a cold front.
Sub SCA conds likely return Wed Night into Thu as high pressure
builds in from the SW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
An extended period of dry conditions will continue through the
midweek with daytime min RH values in the 20 and 30 percent range.
There is potential to meet Red Flag criteria on Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/NV
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JT/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JT/NV