000
FXUS61 KOKX 081956
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
356 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will be in control through much of next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Sprawling high pressure continues to settle over the northeast
tonight. A strong upper jet streak remains situated over
northern New England. The region is located within the right
entrance region, which is helping to draw up high level
moisture/cirrus clouds. The thickest of these clouds should
remain closer to the coast, but a period of mostly cloudy
conditions looks likely this evening. The jet streak will depart
off the New England coast after midnight as an associated
shortwave trough axis swings over the region. The high clouds
will shift southeast as a result leading to mostly clear skies
early Sunday morning.
Lows tonight should be in the lower to middle 30s for most
locations with upper 30s to around 40 in the NYC metro. Frost
development may be difficult to achieve with fairly large dew
point depressions (dew points likely stay in the teens and low
20s). Some patchy frost is possible across in the Long Island
Pine Barrens where dew point depressions may be lower.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will be in control into early next week. The
aforementioned shortwave trough will slowly move off the
coast Sunday and may start to become cutoff from the flow on
Monday. Ridging will build over the northeast during this time
frame. The atmosphere is progged to be quite dry with mostly
clear skies during this period.
Temperatures will slowly moderate, but should still be slightly
below normal on Sunday. Highs will be in the lower to middle
50s for most locations with some of the usual warmer spots in
the upper 50s. Lows Sunday night look similar to those forecast
for tonight (Saturday night). Dew points will likely be higher
with lower dew point depressions. With nearly calm winds and
clear skies, frost may be a bit more widespread outside of the
NYC metro. Did not make much change to where the previous shift
had frost mentioned. Highs on Monday should rise above normal
with most areas in the upper 50s to low 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A pair of shortwaves are expected to pass by primarily to the north
of the area for late Mon night / early Tue, and late Tue night /
early Wed. No sensible wx is anticipated with these features, which
at the surface will translate to a trough of low pressure and a cold
frontal boundary. Both of these disturbances will be weaker further
south into our area and will mainly serve to change the low level /
sfc wind direction. The only implications for these feature thus
will be deciding the prevailing sfc winds for both Tue and Wed which
will determine max temps across the area, particularly closer to the
coast. Look for gradual height rises aloft as ridging builds into
the Ohio Valley and the east into Wed through Fri. This will mean
overall warming temperatures through the week. Temps at 5 kft start
to climb more noticeably late Wed into Thu and should reach 14 to 15
C towards Thu night and Fri. This keeps the area dry with a good
deal of sunshine. If it was a different time of year late day and
evening sea breezes could be ruled out, especially on Wed with a
stronger W flow. But Thu into Fri with the ocean water temps still
well down into the middle and upper 40s late day / eve sea breezes
with intervals of low level clouds are a possibility for the eastern
coastal sections. Temps overall late in the week should get to
around 15 to 20 degrees or so above normal. This may lead to record
warm temperatures being approached, particularly day time maxes late
in the week. The stretch of dry weather may come to an end sometime
next weekend as an upper level low down to the south looks to weaken
in terms of positive vorticity advection, but may lift enough
northeast to bring clouds and possibly some rain. At this time the
first half of next weekend is leaning towards remaining dry.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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High pressure builds in through the weekend.
VFR through the TAF period.
Light and variable winds will shift to the S to SW with sea breezes
developing later this afternoon (around 20Z for KJFK and later for
other terminals). Gusts of 15 to 20 kt for KISP until sea breeze
moves through, then they become more occasional. Occasional gusts of
15 to 20 kt are possible through the afternoon for coastal terminals
after sea breeze moves through. Winds become light and variable
overnight, then shift to the NE Sunday morning, then SE by the
afternoon at 10 kt or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of S to SW seabreeze wind shifts this afternoon may be off by
an hour or so.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday: VFR. NE/E winds 10 kt or less.
Monday into Tuesday: VFR. W/SW winds 10kt or less, giving way to aft
seabreeze at coastal terminals.
Tuesday Night into Wednesday: VFR. SW G20-25kt Tue night, becoming
W/NW 20-30kt Wed.
Thursday: VFR. W to SW winds around 10 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A weak pressure gradient over the waters into early next week
will lead to sub-SCA conditions.
With a relatively weak pressure gradient in place, sub small
craft conditions are anticipated through the first half of Tue.
By late Tue a SW flow increases with marginal small craft
conditions for the eastern most waters. By Tue night into Wed
the expectation is small craft conditions will become more
widespread, first for the ocean and eastern non- ocean waters.
By Wed as the winds become more westerly small craft conditions
will become more likely for all waters with a higher chance of
meeting small craft gust criteria. Sub small craft conditions
should then return into Wed night and Thu.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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An extended period of dry conditions will continue through
the middle of next week with daytime min RH values in the 20
and 30 percent range.
There is potential to meet Red Flag criteria on Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JE/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS