000
FXUS61 KOKX 091059
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
659 AM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through much of the week. A slow
moving frontal system approaches through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast is mainly on track. Temperatures are running a bit
lower than forecast. Despite being under some high cloud cover
most of the night, the LI Pine Barrens has dropped into the mid
20s, with FOK currently at 23 degrees. The back edge of the high
clouds is now offshore.
Shortwave trough can be seen diving down from the Great Lakes
on water vapor satellite imagery. The axis is progged to pass
over the area this morning and the mid and high level clouds
that have been lingering over the area finally shift farther
south. Ridging then builds in over the northeast.
High pressure will be in control the next several days leading to
dry conditions and sunny skies. Highs will be a few degrees warmer
than yesterday, mid to upper 50s for most. Coastal CT and eastern
long Island are expected to be a bit cooler, upper 40s to lower 50s.
A good radiational cooling night is expected tonight now that there
will not be any high clouds to deal with. However, with more of a
southerly flow expected and an increase in moisture, lows tonight
will likely be similar or slightly warmer than Saturday night.
Temperatures bottom out in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the
interior and LI Pine Barrens and mid 30s to lower 40s
elsewhere. Given the aforementioned higher moisture, frost is
expected to be more widespread tonight, but only where the
growing season has not started yet.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Similar conditions are expected on Monday. Ridge axis passes
overhead in the evening and surface high pressure shifts south.
High temperatures Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than
today. The warming trend continues on Tuesday under a
southwesterly flow. Forecast highs are in the mid 60s to lower
70s. The flow increases through the day as the pressure gradient
over the area tightens as a vigorous shortwave dives down from
eastern Canada as well as associated surface low. No sensible
weather is anticipated as this feature approaches.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A vigorous northern stream shortwave passes through northern New
England Tuesday Night. This trough will slide east on Wednesday and
give way to upper ridging and unseasonable warmth for mid to late
week. A large cutoff upper low over the Gulf States gradually shears
towards the region this weekend.
At the surface, a clipper low tracks SE through northern New England
Tue night, with tail end of its weak cold front passing thru on Wed
AM. Models still hinting at an isolated shower or sprinkle with
passage, and at least considerable mid deck ahead of it, and sct cu
in it wake. Main sensible weather impact still looks to be be gusty
SW winds Tue night ahead of the front, and gusty W/NW winds in its
wake Wed, which will likely elevate fire weather concerns on Wed.
Temps on Wed will likely rise 10 to 15 degrees above seasonable
(lower to mid 70s) for much of the region with likely offshore flow,
likely keeping sea breeze development limited to immediate south
coasts.
Thereafter, southern high pressure builds towards the area Wed Night
thru Fri as it slides offshore and gradually centers over Bermuda.
Dry conditions through the period, with a continued warming trend
through late week, with temps likely 20-25 degrees above normal
across NYC/NJ metro and interior on Thu and Fri, possibly into Sat.
Have blended NBM with NBM 75th percentile based on deep WSW flow,
deep mixing to at least 850 HPA w/temps of 10+C, and much of the
region still in pre/early green up. Afternoon seabreezes will keep
southern and eastern coastal areas significantly cooler each
afternoon, likely falling back into the 60s, or even holding in
upper 50s along immediate oceanfront.
Somewhat better agreement on a weak southern closed low shearing NE
towards the region on Saturday, ahead of a deep western US trough
sliding into the central US. This would bring the next chance for
unsettled weather this weekend into early next week with a resultant
slow moving frontal system approach.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure builds in.
Lgt/vrb winds become NE 5-10 kt for morning push, veering to E
thru the morning, then to SE>S coastal sea breezes for most
terminals in the aft/eve. Light SW flow developing tonight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of veering winds (NE>E>SE) may be off by an hour or so.
KLGA will likely hold with ENE winds until a switch to SE sea
breeze aft 20z. SE Sea breezes (around 10 kt) at KJFK/KLGA
could veer to the S (180 true) quicker than forecast (for eve
push).
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Monday: VFR. W/SW winds winds 10 kt or less, with S/SSW sea
breeze development likely in the afternoon at the south coastal
terminals.
Tuesday: VFR. W winds 15G20-25kt in the afternoon, backing SW
at the coastal terminals in the aft. SW/WSW winds 10-15G20kt at
night.
Wednesday: VFR. NW winds 15-20G25-30kt, diminishing at night.
Thursday: VFR. W flow 10 kt, backing SW at the coastal terminals
in the afternoon. Late aft S/SSW seabreeze development likely.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient over the waters into early this week
will lead to sub-SCA conditions.
By late Tue a SW flow increases with marginal small craft conditions
for the eastern most waters. SCA conds then likely on the ocean
waters Tue Night from marginal S/SW SCA gusts ahead of a cold
front and 3 to 4 ft wind waves combining with easterly swells
from a slow moving offshore system. Potential for SCA nearshore
gusts on all waters Wed in wake of a cold front.
Sub SCA conds likely return Wed Night into Thu as high pressure
builds in from the SW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An extended period of dry conditions will continue through
the middle of next week with daytime min RH values in the 20
and 30 percent range.
There is potential to meet Red Flag criteria on Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns expected through the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/NV
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JT/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JT/NV