000
FXUS61 KOKX 092222
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 PM EDT Sun Apr 9 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through much of the week. A slow
moving frontal system approaches through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast is on track with no significant changes. Just a few
minor adjustments to reflect current conditions.
Otherwise, the center of high pressure will remain over the
area tonight. Strong subsidence associated with the high will
allow for clear skies overnight. Additionally, winds will likely
decouple across the outlying areas, allowing for another night
of radiational cooling in these areas. Though lows will not be
as cold as last night, they will still drop to the upper 20s to
around 30 in the well radiating outlying areas. Lows in the
lower 40s are expected in New York City, while elsewhere, lows
will be in the middle to upper 30s.
With these temperatures, frost is once again possible, but is
not expected to be as widespread as Saturday night and will
primarily occur where the growing season has not started yet.
Patchy frost is possible across areas where the growing season
has started, but it is not expected to be widespread enough to
warrant an advisory.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquil weather expected through the short term period as the
center high pressure at the surface pushes south of the area and
slowly weakens and settles over the southeast U.S. Tuesday
night. A surface cold front approaches from the northwest.
Aloft, a ridge builds over the Northeast, and weakens late
Monday into Monday night. Thereafter, building ridge over the
Northern Plains slowly makes its way east, with the center of
the ridge axis near the western Great Lakes region by daybreak
Wednesday.
Rising heights during this time frame will mean warmer
temperatures through Tuesday. Highs away from the coast will be
well into the 60s on Monday and in the 70s by Tuesday. Coastal
areas will see highs in the lower 50s and 60s on Monday, and
upper 50s to upper 60s on Tuesday thanks to the development of
local sea breezes.
Low temperatures will be on the rise as well, with lows Tuesday
night into Wednesday approaching early summer values of middle
to upper 50s in the New York City metro area, with lower 50s
most everywhere else.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level trough will slide east on Wednesday and give way to
upper ridging and unseasonable warmth for mid to late week. A large
cutoff upper low over the Gulf States gradually shears towards the
region this weekend.
At the surface, a weak cold front associated with a clipper low
passing well north of the region will move across there region early
Wednesday morning. There could be an isolated shower or sprinkle
with the front, but chances are too low to include in the forecast.
We should at least see a sct cu in it wake. Also, gusty W/NW winds
will be likely behind the front on Wednesday. This will also likely
elevate fire weather concerns. Temps on Wed will likely rise 10 to
15 degrees above seasonable (lower to mid 70s) for much of the
region with likely offshore flow, likely keeping sea breeze
development limited to immediate south coasts.
Thereafter, southern high pressure builds towards the area Wed Night
thru Fri as it slides offshore and gradually centers over Bermuda.
Dry conditions through the period, with a continued warming trend
through late week, with temps likely 20-25 degrees above normal
across NYC/NJ metro and interior on Thu and Fri, possibly into Sat.
Afternoon seabreezes will keep southern and eastern coastal areas
significantly cooler each afternoon, likely falling back into the
60s, or even holding in upper 50s along immediate oceanfront. Stuck
fairly close to the NBM temperatures in this period.
Somewhat better agreement on a weak southern closed low shearing NE
towards the region on Saturday, ahead of a deep western US trough
sliding into the central US. This would bring the next chance for
unsettled weather this weekend into early next week with a resultant
slow moving frontal system approach.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR as high pressure remains in control into early this week.
SE sea breezes will continue this afternoon, generally around 10-13
kt. Winds will be weaker further inland and should remain variable
at KSWF. Winds veer towards the S this evening as wind speeds
gradually diminish.
Winds shift towards the SSW-SW overnight around 5 kt at NYC
terminals. Winds become light and variable elsewhere. A light W-WNW
flow develops after 12z Monday. Late morning to early afternoon sea
breezes are then likely near the coast.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind speeds could be a few kt higher than forecast at times into
early this afternoon.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday Afternoon-Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. W wind G20kt, backing SW at the coastal terminals in
the afternoon and evening.
Wednesday: VFR. WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt, diminishing at night.
Thursday-Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient over the waters through Tuesday will
lead to sub- SCA conditions.
By late Tue a SW flow increases with marginal small craft conditions
for the eastern most ocean waters with gusts approaching 25 or
slightly higher. SCA conds then likely on all ocean waters Tue
night from marginal S/SW SCA gusts ahead of a cold front and 4
to 6 ft wind waves combining with easterly swells from a slow
moving offshore system.
Potential for SCA nearshore gusts on all waters Wed in
wake of a cold front.
Sub SCA conds likely return Wed Night into Thu as high pressure
builds in from the SW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An extended period of dry conditions will continue through
the middle of next week with daytime min RH values in the 20
and 30 percent range.
There is potential to meet Red Flag criteria on Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns expected through the week.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP