000
FXUS61 KOKX 101719
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
119 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control today through Tuesday, with a weak
cold frontal passage Tuesday Night. Southern high pressure builds in
for late week, before a slow moving frontal system approaches for
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast is on track with only minor changes needed to the
forecast.
Shortwave ridging builds in today, flattening tonight as lead
northern stream shortwave slides into northern New England. At the
surface, Canadian high pressure sinks south of the area today,
with sprawling high pressure establishing itself south and
southwest of the region Tonight.
After a frosty start, sunny skies, deep mixing, and a
moderating airmass, will allow for temps to rise a few
degrees (coast) to several degrees(NYC/NJ metro and interior)
above seasonable today (lower to mid 60s). WSW flow should have
all but the immediate south and east coastal areas quickly warm
into the upper 50s/lower 60s by early afternoon, but then
afternoon seabreeze will likely have south and eastern coastal
areas falling back through the 50s during the mid to late
afternoon.
A milder night tonight w/ moderating airmass and sw flow (lower
to mid 40s), but far outlying areas could still decouple and
radiate into the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A vigorous northern stream shortwave approaches northern New
England Tuesday, sliding through Tuesday Night. This trough will
slide east Wed into Wed Night and give way to upper ridging and
unseasonable warmth for late week.
At the surface, sprawling southern US high pressure noses NE
towards the region Tue, while a clipper low tracks SE towards
northern New England Tue and then through late Tue night/Wed AM.
The tail end of its weak cold front approaches late Tue with
gusty W/SW flow (G20-25mph) ahead of it and increasing high
clouds in the afternoon. Temps on Tue will likely rise to 10 to
15 degrees above seasonable (lower 70s-75) for NYC/NJ metro and
interior, while temps hold in the the 60s along south and east
coast with flow likely backing SW flow. Immediate S and E
shoreline areas may hold in the upper 50s/60. Temps a blend of
HRRR and NBM.
Weak cold front passes thru late Tue Night/Wed AM. Models still
hinting at an isolated shower (more likely a few sprinkles)
from considerable mid deck Tue Night/Wed AM. Then sct cu (bkn CU
interior) in its wake Wed as backside weak shortwave energy
slides through. Main sensible weather still looks to be be mild
and gusty SW winds Tue night (20-25mph) ahead of the front, and
gusty, warm and drying W/NW winds (25 to 30 mph) in its wake
Wed.
Despite weak caa, temps on Wed will likely rise around 15
degrees above seasonable (lower to mid 70s) for much of the
region with likely downslope WSW flow (keeping sea breeze
development limited to immediate south shore), deep mixing to at
least 850 HPA w/temps of 7- 8C, and much of the region still in
pre/early green up. Have bumped up NBM temps by several degrees
across coastal areas with this setup. Cu development across
NYC/NJ metro and interior may be the one limiting factor for
maximizing temps there, so have stayed close to deterministic
NBM in these areas.
Winds and low RH conditions on Tue and Wed signal elevated fire
weather concerns.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Heights continue to rise aloft on Thursday as upper level
ridging builds in. At the surface, high pressure over the
Western Atlantic remains in control. Closer to the weekend, a
large cutoff upper low over the Gulf States gradually shears
towards the region along with associated surface low. This
feature will bring the next chance of rain after a very dry
week.
The warming trend continues Thursday and Friday, with sunny and
dry conditions. Temperatures will likely be 20-25 degrees above
normal for mid April across NYC/NJ metro and interior. Friday
will be the warmest day of the year so far for most, with record
or near record temperatures. Much of the area will see highs in
the mid 80s. Afternoon seabreezes will keep eastern Long Island
and the southeast CT coast significantly cooler each afternoon.
Stuck close to NBM for temperatures.
As mentioned earlier, the next chance of rain comes over the
weekend as a frontal system slowly approaches. With some timing
differences capped PoPs at chance. Temperatures will still be
well above normal on Saturday, but a slight downward trend will
begin.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pres over the region becomes suppressed to the S tngt and
Tue.
VFR thru the TAF period.
Wly component winds today. Sea breezes near the coasts, with all
winds diminishing aft 00Z. Light flow tngt, then increasing WSW
flow on Tue. Winds 15-20kt by Tue aftn with gusts up to 25kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in KEWR sea breeze, so tempo remains in place.
Amendments possible for the timing/strength of sea breeze flow
this aftn and eve.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night: VFR. W winds gusting aoa 20kt.
Wednesday: VFR. WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt, diminishing at night.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Slight chance of MVFR or lower.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Sub SCA conds through Tue morning under a weak pressure
gradient.
By late Tue a SW flow increases with marginal SCA gusts
possible for NY Harbor, southern bays, and ocean waters, and
marginal SCA ocean seas likely developing from S wind waves and
e swell.
SCA likely on the ocean waters Tue Night from marginal SCA
gusts continuing and marginal seas, then potential for SCA
nearshore gusts on all waters Wed in wake of a cold front.
Sub SCA conds likely return Wed night as high pressure builds from
the SW. With high pressure largely remaining in control through
Friday, sub SCA conditions are expected to continue.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An extended period (a week and counting) of dry conditions will
continue through the week, with daytime min RH values in the 20 and
30 percent range through midweek.
There is potential to meet Red Flag criteria on both Tuesday and
Wednesday. On Tuesday, away from the immediate south an east coast,
min RH values will likely drop into the 20s with frequent gusts of
20 to 25 mph. On Wednesday, for much of the region, min RH values
will likely drop into the 20s to around 30 percent with frequent
gusts of 25 to 30 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns expected through the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Max Temperatures For April 14th
Bridgeport.....73/1949
Islip..........73/2022
LaGuardia......84/1941
JFK............78/1949
Central Park...85/1941
Newark.........88/2022
Record High Min Temperatures For April 14th
Bridgeport.....51/2014
Islip..........54/2022
LaGuardia......58/1945
JFK............53/2022
Central Park...60/2019
Newark.........62/2014
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT/NV
NEAR TERM...JP/NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...12
MARINE...JT/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JT/NV
CLIMATE...