000
FXUS61 KOKX 102008
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
408 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control today through Tuesday, with a weak
cold frontal passage Tuesday Night. Southern high pressure builds in
for late week, before a slow moving frontal system approaches for
the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Surface high pressure will settle to over the Southeast U.S.
overnight as a ridge aloft weakens. Rising heights will mean
warmer low temperatures than previous nights. Though light winds
and clear skies will allow outlying areas to decouple and
radiate. However, even in these locations, temperatures will be
warmer. Temperatures in the outlying areas will dip into the
middle 30s, with isolated spots possibly falling to freezing.
These areas will see patchy to areas of frost. Elsewhere, lows
will be in the 40s, with some lows nearing 50 in the New York
City metro area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches for Tuesday, and this will allow for a
WSW flow to increase ahead of it. This will allow for warmer
temperatures, with highs in the lower to middle 70s expected
away from the coast. Highs in the 60s are expected along the
coast, and 50s for the immediate coast.
Dew points are expected to be in the 30s for much of the area,
and with highs in the 70s, RH values will drop to upper 10s to
20s percent. It is possible that these values may be too high,
but combined with winds near 25 mph and antecedent dry
conditions, conditions are becoming more favorable for the start
and spread of fires. Sea breezes that develop during the
afternoon on Tuesday (Long Island) will allow dew points and
therefore RH to increase, making the fire weather concerns more
uncertain. Therefore, in coordination with surrounding offices
and partners, have issued a Fire Weather Watch across the Lower
Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut. Elsewhere, a Special
Weather Statement will likely be issued with the overnight
package.
As the sun sets Tuesday, and temperatures drop, the RH will
increase, assuaging the fire weather concerns. However, very
warm conditions are expected for this time of year, with lows in
the 50s, and possibly around 60 in the New York City metro area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak frontal boundary moves east of the region early Wednesday
morning. Wednesday will remain dry with temperatures rising around
15 degrees above normal (lower to mid 70s) for much of the region.
With a downslope WSW flow (keeping sea breeze development limited to
immediate south shore), deep mixing to at least 850 HPA w/temps of 7-
9C, and much of the region still in pre/early green up. Stuck fairly
close to the NBM temperatures, however did lower the dew points a
bit. Winds and low RH conditions on Wednesday signal elevated fire
weather concerns.
The warming trend continues Thursday and Friday, with sunny and
dry conditions. Temperatures will likely be 20-25 degrees above
normal for mid April across NYC/NJ metro and interior. Friday
will be the warmest day of the year so far for most, with record
or near record temperatures. Much of the area will see highs in the
mid to upper 80s. Afternoon seabreezes will keep eastern Long Island
and the southeast CT coast significantly cooler each afternoon.
Stuck close to NBM for temperatures.
The next chance of rain comes over the weekend as a frontal system
slowly approaches. With some timing differences capped PoPs at
chance. Temperatures will still be well above normal on Saturday,
but a slight downward trend will begin.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pres over the region becomes suppressed to the S tngt and Tue.
VFR thru the TAF period.
Wly component winds today. Sea breezes near the coasts, with all
winds diminishing aft 00Z. Light flow tngt, then increasing WSW flow
on Tue. Winds 15-20kt by Tue aftn with gusts up to 25kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence in KEWR sea breeze, so tempo remains in place.
Amendments possible for the timing/strength of sea breeze flow thru
this eve.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Night: VFR. W winds gusting aoa 20kt.
Wednesday: VFR. WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt, diminishing at night.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Slight chance of MVFR or lower.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
By late Tue a SW flow increases with the approach of a cold
front and marginal nearshore SCA gusts expected for southern
bays, and ocean waters, and eastern sound and marginal SCA ocean
seas likely developing from S wind waves and E swell.
Therefore, SCA has been issued for these areas through Tuesday
night. Marginal nearshore SCA gusts for the harbor and western
sound, but did not have enough confidence to issue SCA for these
areas just yet as low level inversion over the waters may
prevent some of the higher gusts from mixing down.
The potential for SCA nearshore gusts will be possible on all waters
on Wednesday in wake of a frontal passage.
Sub SCA conds likely return Wed night as high pressure builds from
the SW. With high pressure largely remaining in control through
Friday, sub SCA conditions are expected to continue.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
An extended period (a week and counting) of dry conditions will
continue through the week, with daytime min RH values in the 20 and
30 percent range through midweek. A Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut.
Elsewhere, a Special Weather Statement will likely be issued
with the overnight package.
There is potential to meet Red Flag criteria again on
Wednesday, with min RH values will likely dropping into the 20s
to around 30 percent with frequent gusts of 25 to 30 mph for
much of the region.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns expected through the week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Max Temperatures For April 14th
Bridgeport.....73/1949
Islip..........73/2022
LaGuardia......84/1941
JFK............78/1949
Central Park...85/1941
Newark.........88/2022
Record High Min Temperatures For April 14th
Bridgeport.....51/2014
Islip..........54/2022
LaGuardia......58/1945
JFK............53/2022
Central Park...60/2019
Newark.........62/2014
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening for NYZ211.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday
for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...12
MARINE...BC/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP
CLIMATE...