000
FXUS61 KOKX 111135
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
735 AM EDT Tue Apr 11 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure anchored south of the area will be in control today. A
weak cold front passes through tonight. High pressure south of
the area will remain in control as an early season Bermuda high
sets up through Friday. Weak low pressure will pass to our south
and east late Saturday as a frontal system slowly approaches
from the west Sunday into Monday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No big changes for this update as the forecast continues to be
on track.
A shortwave moves away well to the northeast of the area, and
in its wake expect a fair amount of sunshine. A WSW flow will
prevail with more of a hybrid sea breeze perhaps for eastern
coastal sections during the afternoon. Temperatures will start
to begin their warm up for this week as 850 mb temps gradually
warm today with more of a wind out of the west at 5 kft. This
should yield temperatures that warm into the lower and middle
70s well inland and further west across the area, with mainly
60s for coastal sections, especially southeastern coastal
sections. With abnormally dry air in place and breezy conditions
the risk of fire spread will be high. Refer to the fire wx
section for details.
Late this afternoon, and especially towards this evening expect
more in the way of mid and high level clouds as a shortwave
north of the area in Eastern Canada zips by to our north. This
will serve to bring in more in the way of upper level moisture,
but that will be the extent of it as ridging over the nation`s
mid section begins to translate east. With a gradual warming of
the air mass and a good amount of cloud cover expect
temperatures to be milder with lows mainly in the 50s region
wide.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Some mid level clouds will be around to start on Wed, but expect
high to mid level clouds and moisture to thin out as more in the way
of deep layer ridging works in. Temperatures will also continue
their gradual ascent as 850 mb temps work to 10 to 12 C late in the
day. With more in the way of sunshine, especially later in the day
expect max temps on more of a offshore flow from the WNW to get well
into the 70s from NYC on west and well inland, to mainly upper 60s
and lower 70s across eastern most coastal sections. This will get
most places 10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal averages, with
somewhat lower departures from normal along coastal sections. With
abnormally dry air remaining in place and breezy conditions the
risk of fire spread will remain high over a relatively larger area.
Refer to the fire wx section for details.
For Wednesday night as the air mass in place continues to gradually
warm temps will remain rather mild and a few degrees warmer in all
likelihood from the previous night under a mainly clear sky. Enough
of a westerly synoptic flow should preclude the formation of a
marine layer with low clouds from attempting to push in.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic remains in control through
the end of the week. On Thursday, an upper level ridge builds in,
with the axis passing to the east late Friday. Record or near record
high temperates are expected at all climate sites Friday, with
multiple days of record or near record high minimum temperatures
possible as well. See the Climate section below.
Sunny conditions on Thursday and Friday in a dry airmass. 850mb
temperatures 14-16C will be near the max moving average and possibly
above the daily max for OKX per SPC`s Sounding Climatology page.
Highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s
will give the air a very dry feel. Minimum RH values will be 30 to
40 percent for most. There will be a weak pressure gradient over the
area and thus light winds, so no fire weather concerns. Sea breezes
are likely both days, this will keep highs along the southeast CT
coast and eastern Long Island in the mid 60s to low 70s given a cool
flow off of the water. Water temperatures are still in the mid 40s.
A closed upper level low that was sitting over the southeast US will
lift northeast towards our area late Friday into Saturday. An
associated weak surface low will pass just to our southeast as high
pressure over the Western Atlantic starts to push east. There
continues to be differences in location and timing in this weak low,
but this feature could bring our next chance of rain. Capped at
slight chance for now Saturday afternoon. A larger and slower moving
frontal system then approaches with a cold frontal passage sometime
late Sunday into Monday. This front brings better shot at seeing
rain. Currently chance PoPs.
Temperatures will start trending down Saturday, but remain above
average through Monday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure becomes suppressed to the south today, but
remains in control.
VFR. Increasing WSW flow today, with winds 15-20G25kt by afternoon,
peaking 20G24-29kt, with a few higher gusts possible at the metros
especially KJFK toward evening. Can`t rule out KJFK/KBDR/KGON
and possibly KISP backing more to the SW than forecast via a
partial sea breeze component.
Winds lower slightly late tonight, but remain gusty around 20kt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
KJFK winds could back more SW than forecast This afternoon.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Wednesday: VFR. WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt, diminishing at night.
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. Low confidence.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
By this afternoon a SW flow increases out ahead of an approaching
cold front. Thus, small craft conditions will become increasingly
likely for southern bays, the central and eastern ocean waters, the
eastern half of LI Sound. Small craft conditions are therefore
expected tonight, especially behind the cold front for all waters,
with the exception being the western most ocean waters and NY Harbor
with gusts being just short of criteria and seas up to 4 ft on the
western ocean. Have added the western portion of LI Sound with gusts
likely to get up to 25 kts for at least 3-4 hours tonight.
The potential for SCA nearshore gusts will be possible on all waters
on Wednesday in wake of the front on a WNW flow and with more mixing
overall. Sub SCA conds likely return Wed night as high pressure
builds enough to decrease the pressure gradient.
Sub SCA conditions expected Thursday through most of the weekend,
with a weak pressure gradient over the area and high pressure over
the Western Atlantic largely remaining in control.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An extended period (a week and counting) of dry conditions will
continue through the week, with daytime min RH values mainly in the
20 and 30 percent range through midweek. A Red Flag Warning has been
issued for today into early this evening for the Lower Hudson
Valley, Southern Connecticut, and New York City. A Special Weather
Statement is in effect for NE New Jersey and Long Island.
There is potential to meet Red Flag criteria again on Wednesday,
with min RH values likely dropping into the 20s to around 30 percent
with gusts likely to be more frequent at 25 to 30 mph for much of
the region.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 14
Bridgeport.....73 (1949)
Islip..........73 (2022)
LaGuardia......84 (1941)
JFK............78 (1949)
Central Park...85 (1941)
Newark.........88 (2022)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...49 (2017)...61 (1945)...60/2019...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......54 (2017)...59 (2018)...58/1945...64 (1941)
JFK............52 (2017)...53 (2019)...53/2022...58 (1960)
Islip..........51 (2008)...53 (2019)...54/2022...54 (2012)
Newark.........59 (2017)...61 (2019)...62/2014...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....49 (2017)...52 (2020)...51/2014...53 (2012)
For more details see the WPC experimental NDFD Forecast
Temperature Records page at:
https:/www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/ndfd/ndfd.html
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NYZ211-212.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for ANZ335.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/JT
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JE/JT
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/JT
CLIMATE...