000
FXUS61 KOKX 120546
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
146 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored south of the area tonight as
a weak cold front passes through the northeast. The high
pressure then becomes an early season Bermuda high through the
end of the week. A weak area of low pressure passes to the
south and east on Saturday, with another frontal system
approaching the region into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The main adjustments for the remainder of the overnight with
this update had to do mainly with temps and winds. Temps have
been running a few degrees warmer than previously progged. Also,
winds have been coming in lighter in most places. Adjustments
were made in the hourly forecast database accordingly with the
min temp raised a touch in some spots.
A strong shortwave will dig out eastern Canada towards the
Maritimes, sending a weak cold front towards the region. The
front likely never moves fully south of the area as heights
aloft start rising with ridging building to the west early
Wednesday morning. The only noticeable change to the weather
tonight will be an increase in middle and high level clouds. It
will likely be mostly cloudy, which will help keep temperatures
mild and in the 50s. It will also remain breezy with some gusts
up to 20 mph possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High clouds may persist in the morning, especially near the
coast. The deep layered ridging building in should eventual
create enough subsidence for a mostly sunny afternoon. With the
core of the high pressure to the south, the westerly flow will
remain strong enough to slow the progress of sea breezes in the
afternoon. 850 mb temperatures rise to 10 to 12 C late in the
day as well. Highs look to reach the upper 70s and low 80s in
the NYC metro, urban NE NJ corridor, and portions of the Lower
Hudson Valley. Temperatures further east will be a bit cooler in
the lower to potentially middle 70s. Locations along the
immediate shore may see temperatures struggle to get out of the
60s where the afternoon sea breezes develop. Breezy conditions
are expected with gusts 20-25 mph likely.
Wednesday night will remain quite mild with lows in the 50s for
most. Temperatures may not fall below 60 degrees in the NYC metro.
High pressure then centers itself over the Western Atlantic to end
the week, similar to a more summertime pattern. Models continue
to prog 850 mb temperature increasing to 14-17C on Thursday.
Temperatures likely warm well into the 80s away from the coast,
where temperatures reach the 70s. The forecast highs are close
to records in some locations (See climate section below for
more). Afternoon sea breezes are likely again as well near the
coast. It will remain breezy but winds should be weaker than on
Wednesday with just a few gusts 15-20 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The warm spell continues to start the long term period. An
upper ridge axis passes overhead Friday as it slides east. Weak
surface high pressure in place gradually weakens and shifts east
as well into the start of the weekend.
Sunshine prevails Friday with a light WSW/SW flow. Dew points
in the 40s and 50s, with minimum RH values in the 30 to 40
percent range, give a dry feel to the day. Fortunately, the weak
pressure gradient will mitigate fire weather concerns. With the
warm air aloft, and a well-mixed BL, expecting another
unseasonably warm, if not hot, afternoon away from the maritime
influence. Model soundings prog 850mb temperatures between
14-16C, or near the max moving average per SPC`s Sounding
Climatology page. This translates to highs into the mid 80s
across NE NJ, NYC, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior
southern Connecticut. Along the SE CT shoreline, as well as
eastern Long Island, sea breezes are expected to develop and
bring cooler air onshore (water temps in the 40s), temperatures
remain in the 60s and 70s. Still, near record high temperatures
are expected at all climate sites Friday, with near record high
minimum temperatures possible as well. See the Climate section
below.
The region likely breaks the dry streak this weekend. A closed
upper level low over the Southeast US lifts northeast and off
the Carolina coast late Friday into Saturday. The associated
weak surface low passes just to our southeast on Saturday as
high pressure over the Western Atlantic starts to push east. The
flow turns southerly in response, and with the cooler air
aloft, temperatures on Saturday fall about 10 degrees from
Friday. Forcing and moisture are both limited, so any
precipitation that does develop on Saturday would be light and
spotty. From here, global guidance continues to see timing
differences with a more potent frontal system early next week,
but largely agree on a cold frontal passage sometime Monday,
with showers likely ahead of it. Continue to cap PoPs at high
chance (50%) though given these subtle differences.
Temperatures start trending down Saturday, but remain above average
through Monday, with highs largely in the 60s. Other than subtle
changes, national blended guidance was followed for this update.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak cold front approaches from the north tonight and stalls
near or just NE of the area around daybreak. The front then
slowly lifts NE Wednesday afternoon and night.
VFR.
SW to W flow becomes more westerly by daybreak, and then W to
NW Wednesday morning. Winds and gusts increase Wednesday
morning, with higher confidence in frequent gusts developing.
Timing of the ending of the gusts late Wednesday afternoon is
uncertain and gusts may continue an hour or two later.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts possible overnight before becoming frequent
during Wednesday morning, with gusts 20-25kt.
...OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Gusty SCA winds remain on the ocean waters east of Fire Island
Inlet and across the Long Island Bays and the far eastern Long
Island Sound through the overnight and into early Wednesday
morning, however, gusts may be more marginal at times. Seas
were increased across the central ocean waters, as seas were
about 5.5 feet at 02Z.
SW flow remains below SCA levels on much of the Long Island
Sound, NY Harbor, and ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet.
Winds should remain below SCA levels on Wednesday with the
warmer air continuing to move over the cold waters. Ocean seas
may remain elevated around 5 ft east of Moriches Inlet. SCA in
effect until 18z Wed here. Sub-SCA conditions are otherwise
likely into Thursday.
Sub SCA conditions expected Friday through most of the weekend, with
a weak pressure gradient over the area and high pressure over the
Western Atlantic largely remaining in control.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An extended period (a week and counting) of dry conditions will
continue through the week, with daytime min RH values mainly in the
20 and 30 percent range.
After collaboration with partners, another Red Flag Warning was
issued for Wednesday for Connecticut. A Special Weather
Statement may be needed once again for NJ and NY zones, though
with marginal conditions, will reevaluate overnight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 13 Apr 14
Central Park...88 (1977)...85 (1941)
LaGuardia......85 (1977)...84 (1941)
JFK............85 (1977)...78 (1949)
Islip..........82 (1977)...73 (2022)
Newark.........86 (1977)...88 (2022)
Bridgeport.....74 (1968)...73 (1949)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...49 (2017)...61 (1945)...60/2019...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......54 (2017)...59 (2018)...58/1945...64 (1941)
JFK............52 (2017)...53 (2019)...53/2022...58 (1960)
Islip..........51 (2008)...53 (2019)...54/2022...54 (2012)
Newark.........59 (2017)...61 (2019)...62/2014...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....49 (2017)...52 (2020)...51/2014...53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Thursday
for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ332-
340-345-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/DS
NEAR TERM...JE/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/DS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DR/DS
CLIMATE...