000
FXUS61 KOKX 121014
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
614 AM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remaining south of the area will remain in control
as an early season Bermuda high sets up through Friday. Weak
low pressure will pass to the south and east on Saturday, with
another frontal system moving through the area Sunday night into
Monday. A weaker cold front may follow on Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A very mild start with temperatures already beginning in the
middle and upper 60s in the metro, with lots of upper 50s to
middle 60s elsewhere. Mid level clouds and patches of upper
level clouds will be around to start today. Expect the high to
mid level clouds and moisture to thin out more and more as mid
and upper level ridging works in for the second half of today.
Temperatures will also continue their gradual ascent as 850 mb
temps work to 10 to 12 C late in the day. With more in the way
of sunshine towards the afternoon expect max temps on more of a
offshore flow from the W and WNW to get into the upper 70s and
lower 80s from NYC on west and well inland, to mainly 70s
elsewhere, and a few 60s across far eastern coastal sections.
This will get most places to 20 degrees above the seasonal
averages, with somewhat lower departures from normal along
eastern coastal sections. With abnormally dry air remaining in
place and breezy conditions the risk of fire spread will remain
high over a relatively larger area. Refer to the fire wx section
for details.
For tonight as the air mass in place continues to gradually warm
temps will remain rather mild and a few degrees warmer in all
likelihood from the previous night under a mainly clear sky. Enough
of a westerly synoptic flow should preclude the formation of a
marine layer with low clouds from attempting to push in most places.
Out towards eastern LI the chances of a stronger maritime intrusion
will be higher as temps could get down to around 50, or a few upper
40s for lows. Otherwise, lows will range from the lower 60s in the
NYC metro, and mainly 50s elsewhere. See the climate sections with
regard to any records through the period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sub SCA conditions expected Friday through most of the weekend, with
a weak pressure gradient over the area and high pressure over the
Western Atlantic largely remaining in control.
The trend up in temperatures continues into the latter portion of
the week for Thursday and Friday. Global guidance consensus has 850
mb temps warming to about 14 C on Thursday, and 15 to 16 C on
Friday. This will translate to day time maxes getting well into the
80s across the interior and away from the coast. Otherwise, a hybrid
coastal sea breeze may have a better chance of getting going on
Friday, with the winds during the day on Thursday likely maintaining
more of a westerly component, even for some coastal communities
for a good portion of the day. Low to mid 80s look likely for
the NYC metro, with perhaps southern portions of the city down
into Brooklyn staying in the upper 70s, with cooler lower and
middle 70s for eastern sections. Some coastal communities may
hit 80 towards mid day on Thursday, before localized sea breezes
can get initiated.
Night time conditions look to be similar for Thursday night.
Southeastern coastal sections will cool down the most due to
localized sea breezes setting up earlier in the night. Otherwise,
look for lows to be mainly in the middle 50s to lower 60s which
continues the run of well above normal temperatures. See the climate
sections with regard to any records through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Increasing cloud cover and rain chances over the weekend will put a
damper on the record warmth across the region, however, it will
remain unseasonably warm. Record Min Maxs are still a possibility
Friday night with a mild southerly flow and increasing cloud cover.
For Saturday, highs are forecast to be 10-15 degrees above normal,
but on the downward trend. This will also hinge on the extent of
cloud cover increasing ahead of a southern branch low moving around
the western periphery of the ridge over the western Atlantic. The
latter which will bring a chance of showers Saturday into Saturday
night.
A stronger frontal system will then approach the area on Sunday and
move through the area Sunday night into Monday morning. There is a
good chance of showers at this time. Instability is marginal and
will leave the mention of thunder out at this time. Behind the
front, temperatures will return to more seasonable levels to start
the week. In addition, global models are also in good agreement with
closing off an upper low across the NE quarter of the nation,
keeping the weather unsettled with a chance of showers.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak cold front approaches from the north tonight and stalls
near or just NE of the area around daybreak. The front then
slowly lifts NE Wednesday afternoon and night.
VFR.
SW to W flow becomes more westerly by daybreak, and then W to
NW Wednesday morning. Winds and gusts increase Wednesday
morning, with higher confidence in frequent gusts developing.
Timing of the ending of the gusts late Wednesday afternoon is
uncertain and gusts may continue an hour or two later.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional gusts possible overnight before becoming frequent
during Wednesday morning, with gusts 20-25kt.
...OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday night through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in showers.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
&&
.MARINE...
Marginal small craft conditions persist through much of this
morning, with small craft conditions mainly due to seas of around 5
ft out on the eastern ocean through mid to late morning. Otherwise
sub small craft conditions return for all waters later today into
tonight. More tranquil conditions are expected on Friday with seas
for a time only averaging around 2 ft on the ocean.
Sub SCA conditions are expected through most of the weekend, with a
weak pressure gradient over the area and high pressure over the
Western Atlantic largely remaining in control.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
With the extended period of dry weather continuing and daytime min
RH values at 25 to 30 percent and wind gusts to around 25 mph at
times for today , a red flag warning has been issued for CT, with an
SPS for NE NJ and all NY zones (NYC, LI, and the Lower Hudson
Valley) for today.
Conditions are expected to be marginal on Thu, and will be
reevaluated later today and tonight.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 13 Apr 14
Central Park...88 (1977)...85 (1941)
LaGuardia......85 (1977)...84 (1941)
JFK............85 (1977)...78 (1949)
Islip..........82 (1977)...73 (2022)
Newark.........86 (1977)...88 (2022)
Bridgeport.....74 (1968)...73 (1949)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...49 (2017)...61 (1945)...60/2019...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......54 (2017)...59 (2018)...58/1945...64 (1941)
JFK............52 (2017)...53 (2019)...53/2022...58 (1960)
Islip..........51 (2008)...53 (2019)...54/2022...54 (2012)
Newark.........59 (2017)...61 (2019)...62/2014...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....49 (2017)...52 (2020)...51/2014...53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this
evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ332-
340-345-353.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
CLIMATE...