000
FXUS61 KOKX 121925
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
325 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure remains in control through Friday. Weak low
pressure will pass to the south and east on Saturday. A cold
front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, then push
south Tuesday night into Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Well above average temperatures will continue tonight as daytime
highs in the upper 70s and 80s slowly cool off into the evening.
Clear skies overnight with a weakening wind as high pressure build
back into the area from the south, should aid in cooling overnight,
but will still remain above average. Lows tonight will only fall
into the low to middle 50s for most. The NYC metro may not drop
below 60. Record Maximum Minimum temperatures are possible
tonight. Refer to the climate section for the records.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern Thursday.
The upper level ridge moves more firmly overhead on Thursday with
500 mb heights near 576 dam. This anomalously warm air aloft will
translate to surface temperatures during the afternoon climbing into
the 80s for most of the area and spots for the western area and NYC
metro approaching 90 degrees. Westerly winds as high pressure is
centered to the south will allow for the warm air to infiltrate Long
Island and the southern Connecticut coast with less of a flow off of
the cooler ocean. This will allow temperatures along the coast and
through Long Island to rise into the upper 70s and low 80s. Even the
Twin Forks are expected to rise into the middle 70s. Overall,
temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above average.
Some spots may be 30 degrees above average. Record high temperatures
are likely for some locations tomorrow. Refer to the climate section
for records.
There is also a continuing fire weather concern with dry and warm
conditions, though with a generally weaker wind on Thursday, no Red
Flag Warnings are expected. Refer to the fire weather section for
more information.
Continued warmth persists into the evening Thursday with
temperatures slowly cooling off through the evening. Low
temperatures Thursday night will be above average, generally only
cooling off into the middle to upper 50s. The NYC metro may not drop
below 60 once again.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Increasing cloud cover and rain chances over the weekend will put a
damper on the record warmth across the region, however, it will
remain unseasonably warm. Record Min Maxs are still a possibility
Friday night with a mild southerly flow and increasing cloud cover.
For Saturday, highs are forecast to be 10-15 degrees above normal,
but on the downward trend. Currently forecasting low/mid-80s in the
NYC metro and in the interior with coastal ares of Connecticut and
Long Island in the mid/upper-70s. These highs may vary by a few
degrees depending on how much cloud cover we see during the daytime.
This hinges on the extent of cloud cover increasing ahead of a
southern branch low moving around the western periphery of the ridge
over the western Atlantic. The latter of which will bring a chance
of showers Saturday into Saturday night. Precip should clear by
Sunday morning.
A stronger frontal system will then approach the area on Sunday and
move through the area Sunday night into Monday morning. There is a
good chance of showers at this time. Instability is marginal and
will leave the mention of thunder out at this time. Behind the
front, temperatures will return to more seasonable levels to start
the week. Along with the seasonable temperatures, winds could gust
up to 25 mph following the front`s passage.
Global models are also in good agreement with closing off an upper
low across the NE quarter of the nation. This low will bring a
weaker secondary front on Tuesday and keep things unsettled through
this time. Shower chances remain because of this, but look better
for areas to the north in the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut
than in NE NJ, NYC or Long Island. Temperatures remain seasonable
during this time as the closed low lies directly to our north by
Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A front just NE of the area will slowly lifts NE, away from the
region through tonight. High pressure will remain south of the
area.
VFR.
W to NW winds 10 to 15kt G20-25 kt through 22-00z. Gusts then
end and winds diminish to 10kt or less. Thursday, winds will be
from the west to start, then back to the SW. Winds speeds will
be 5-8kt to start and increase to 10-15 during the afternoon.
A few occasional gusts into the teens or lower 20s will be
possible. Confidence not high enough to include in the TAF.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of the ending of the gusts late this afternoon may vary
by 1-2 hours.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers late.
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
&&
.MARINE...
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Sub-SCA conditions are expected through at least Sunday night
with a weak pressure gradient over the area.
Post-frontal SW flow on Monday could bring minimal SCA conds
(gusts up to 25 kt and seas approaching 5 ft) to the ocean
waters E of Fire Island Inlet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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With the extended period of dry weather continuing and daytime min
RH values at 25 to 30 percent and wind gusts to around 25 mph at
times for today , a red flag warning has been issued for CT, with an
SPS for NE NJ and all NY zones (NYC, LI, and the Lower Hudson
Valley) for through this evening.
Conditions are expected to be similar on Thursday with RH values g
generally 20 - 30 percent through winds will be weaker with only
occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph in the afternoon. An SPS is
expected to be issued for tomorrow for the entire area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 13 Apr 14
Central Park...88 (1977)...85 (1941)
LaGuardia......85 (1977)...84 (1941)
JFK............85 (1977)...78 (1949)
Islip..........82 (1977)...73 (2022)
Newark.........86 (1977)...88 (2022)
Bridgeport.....74 (1968)...73 (1949)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...49 (2017)...61 (1945)...60/2019...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......54 (2017)...59 (2018)...58/1945...64 (1941)
JFK............52 (2017)...53 (2019)...53/2022...58 (1960)
Islip..........51 (2008)...53 (2019)...54/2022...54 (2012)
Newark.........59 (2017)...61 (2019)...62/2014...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....49 (2017)...52 (2020)...51/2014...53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BG/BR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/BR/MW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR/MW
CLIMATE...