000
FXUS61 KOKX 122330
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday. Weak low
pressure will pass to the south and east on Saturday. A cold
front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, then push
south Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Update mainly to capture near term trends. Sea breeze made it
into parts of Brooklyn/Queens/SW Nassau and also into most the
south shore and east end locations on Long Island, so near term
temp/wind forecast in/near those areas very tricky (temps attm
still near 80 on the north shore of western Suffolk, in the 60s
just south of the boundary, and in the lower/mid 50s near the
ocean shore!) and and will need further refinement later this
evening.
Otherwise...clear skies tonight with a weakening wind as high
pressure builds back into the area from the south should aid in
cooling, but temps will still remain above average. Lows
tonight will only fall into the low to middle 50s for most. The
NYC metro may not drop below 60. Record high minimum
temperatures are possible tonight. Refer to the climate
section for the records.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern Thursday.
The upper level ridge moves more firmly overhead on Thursday with
500 mb heights near 576 dam. This anomalously warm air aloft will
translate to surface temperatures during the afternoon climbing into
the 80s for most of the area and spots for the western area and NYC
metro approaching 90 degrees. Westerly winds as high pressure is
centered to the south will allow for the warm air to infiltrate Long
Island and the southern Connecticut coast with less of a flow off of
the cooler ocean. This will allow temperatures along the coast and
through Long Island to rise into the upper 70s and low 80s. Even the
Twin Forks are expected to rise into the middle 70s. Overall,
temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above average.
Some spots may be 30 degrees above average. Record high temperatures
are likely for some locations tomorrow. Refer to the climate section
for records.
There is also a continuing fire weather concern with dry and warm
conditions, though with a generally weaker wind on Thursday, no Red
Flag Warnings are expected. Refer to the fire weather section for
more information.
Continued warmth persists into the evening Thursday with
temperatures slowly cooling off through the evening. Low
temperatures Thursday night will be above average, generally only
cooling off into the middle to upper 50s. The NYC metro may not drop
below 60 once again.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Increasing cloud cover and rain chances over the weekend will put a
damper on the record warmth across the region, however, it will
remain unseasonably warm. Record high minimum temps are still a
possibility Friday night with a mild southerly flow and
increasing cloud cover. For Saturday, highs are forecast to be
10-15 degrees above normal, but on the downward trend. Currently
forecasting low/mid-80s in the NYC metro and in the interior
with coastal ares of Connecticut and Long Island in the
mid/upper-70s. These highs may vary by a few degrees depending
on how much cloud cover we see during the daytime. This hinges
on the extent of cloud cover increasing ahead of a southern
branch low moving around the western periphery of the ridge over
the western Atlantic. The latter of which will bring a chance
of showers Saturday into Saturday night. Precip should clear by
Sunday morning.
A stronger frontal system will then approach the area on Sunday and
move through the area Sunday night into Monday morning. There is a
good chance of showers at this time. Instability is marginal and
will leave the mention of thunder out at this time. Behind the
front, temperatures will return to more seasonable levels to start
the week. Along with the seasonable temperatures, winds could gust
up to 25 mph following the front`s passage.
Global models are also in good agreement with closing off an upper
low across the NE quarter of the nation. This low will bring a
weaker secondary front on Tuesday and keep things unsettled through
this time. Shower chances remain because of this, but look better
for areas to the north in the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut
than in NE NJ, NYC or Long Island. Temperatures remain seasonable
during this time as the closed low lies directly to our north by
Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain south of the area into Thursday night
as a trough of low pressure also remains across the region.
VFR.
A sea breeze went through KISP around 23Z with southerly winds,
and a weak sea breeze was also through KGON. Otherwise, winds
were westerly 10kt or less, and will diminish through this
evening. Thursday, winds will be from the west to start, then
back to the SW late in the day. Gusts up to 20kt are likely in
the afternoon and included in the forecast at this time.,
however, gust may be more occasional. Also, there is a chance of
late day seas breezes along the Connecticut and Long Island
south shore.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts Thursday afternoon may be more occasional.
A sea breeze is possible at KJFK by late in the day, and may
also reach KLGA as late as 22Z.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers late.
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SW winds over the waters picked up to 15-20 kt late today, but
should diminish this evening and remain below SCA criteria. Sub-
SCA conditions expected through at least Sunday night with a
weak pressure gradient over the area.
Post-frontal SW flow on Monday could bring minimal SCA conds
(gusts up to 25 kt and seas approaching 5 ft) to the ocean
waters E of Fire Island Inlet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Cooling temps, diminishing winds, and rising RH will bring a
quick end to red flag conditions early this evening.
Conditions are expected to be similar on Thursday with min RH
values generally 20-30 percent, through winds will be weaker
with only occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph in the afternoon.
SPS will be issued to handle this as the red flag warning
expires.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 13 Apr 14
Central Park...88 (1977)...85 (1941)
LaGuardia......85 (1977)...84 (1941)
JFK............85 (1977)...78 (1949)
Islip..........82 (1977)...73 (2022)
Newark.........86 (1977)...88 (2022)
Bridgeport.....74 (1968)...73 (1949)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...49 (2017)...61 (1945)...60/2019...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......54 (2017)...59 (2018)...58/1945...64 (1941)
JFK............52 (2017)...53 (2019)...53/2022...58 (1960)
Islip..........51 (2008)...53 (2019)...54/2022...54 (2012)
Newark.........59 (2017)...61 (2019)...62/2014...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....49 (2017)...52 (2020)...51/2014...53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/BR/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BG/BR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/BR/MW
FIRE WEATHER...BG/BR/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR/MW