000
FXUS61 KOKX 130228
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1028 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday. Weak low
pressure will pass to the south and east on Saturday. A cold
front will approach late Monday night into Tuesday, then push
south Tuesday night into Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Update mainly to capture near term trends.
Otherwise, clear overnight with diminishing wind as high
pressure builds back into the area from the south which should
aid in cooling, with temperatures remaining above average.
Lows tonight will only fall into the lower to middle 50s for
most locations. The NYC metro may not drop below 60. Record
high minimum temperatures are possible tonight. Refer to the
climate section for the records.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern
Thursday. The upper level ridge moves more firmly overhead on
Thursday with 500 mb heights near 576 dam. This anomalously warm
air aloft will translate to surface temperatures during the
afternoon climbing into the 80s for most of the area and spots
for the western area and NYC metro approaching 90 degrees.
Westerly winds as high pressure is centered to the south will
allow for the warm air to infiltrate Long Island and the
southern Connecticut coast with less of a flow off of the cooler
ocean. This will allow temperatures along the coast and through
Long Island to rise into the upper 70s and low 80s. Even the
Twin Forks are expected to rise into the middle 70s. Overall,
temperatures are expected to be 20 to 25 degrees above average.
Some spots may be 30 degrees above average. Record high
temperatures are likely for some locations tomorrow. Refer to
the climate section for records.
There is also a continuing fire weather concern with dry and warm
conditions, though with a generally weaker wind on Thursday, no Red
Flag Warnings are expected. Refer to the fire weather section for
more information.
Continued warmth persists into the evening Thursday with
temperatures slowly cooling off through the evening. Low
temperatures Thursday night will be above average, generally only
cooling off into the middle to upper 50s. The NYC metro may not drop
below 60 once again.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Increasing cloud cover and rain chances over the weekend will
put a damper on the record warmth across the region, however, it
will remain unseasonably warm. Record high minimum temps are
still a possibility Friday night with a mild southerly flow and
increasing cloud cover. For Saturday, highs are forecast to be
10-15 degrees above normal, but on the downward trend. Currently
forecasting low/mid-80s in the NYC metro and in the interior
with coastal ares of Connecticut and Long Island in the
mid/upper-70s. These highs may vary by a few degrees depending
on how much cloud cover we see during the daytime. This hinges
on the extent of cloud cover increasing ahead of a southern
branch low moving around the western periphery of the ridge over
the western Atlantic. The latter of which will bring a chance
of showers Saturday into Saturday night. Precip should clear by
Sunday morning.
A stronger frontal system will then approach the area on Sunday
and move through the area Sunday night into Monday morning.
There is a good chance of showers at this time. Instability is
marginal and will leave the mention of thunder out at this time.
Behind the front, temperatures will return to more seasonable
levels to start the week. Along with the seasonable
temperatures, winds could gust up to 25 mph following the
front`s passage.
Global models are also in good agreement with closing off an
upper low across the NE quarter of the nation. This low will
bring a weaker secondary front on Tuesday and keep things
unsettled through this time. Shower chances remain because of
this, but look better for areas to the north in the Lower Hudson
Valley and Connecticut than in NE NJ, NYC or Long Island.
Temperatures remain seasonable during this time as the closed
low lies directly to our north by Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain south of the area into Thursday night
as a trough of low pressure remains across the region.
VFR.
Winds have quickly diminished, becoming light and variable to
calm across the outlying areas, and light SW along the coast.
Thursday, winds will be from the west to start, then back to
the SW late in the day. Gusts up to 20kt are likely in the
afternoon and included in the forecast at this time., however,
gust may be more occasional. Also, there is a chance of late day
seas breezes along the Connecticut and Long Island south shore.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts Thursday afternoon may be more occasional.
A sea breeze is possible at KJFK by late in the day, and may
also reach KLGA as late as 22Z.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday night through Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers late.
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated winds, gusts, and seas for current conditions.
SW winds over the waters picked up to 15-20 kt late today, but
should diminish this evening and remain below SCA criteria. Sub-
SCA conditions expected through at least Sunday night with a
weak pressure gradient over the area.
Post-frontal SW flow on Monday could bring minimal SCA conds
(gusts up to 25 kt and seas approaching 5 ft) to the ocean
waters E of Fire Island Inlet.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Conditions Thursday are expected to be similar to Wednesday`s,
with min RH values generally 20-30 percent, though winds will
be weaker with only occasional gusts upwards of 20 mph in the
afternoon. An SPS has been issued for the region for Thursday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 13 Apr 14
Central Park...88 (1977)...85 (1941)
LaGuardia......85 (1977)...84 (1941)
JFK............85 (1977)...78 (1949)
Islip..........82 (1977)...73 (2022)
Newark.........86 (1977)...88 (2022)
Bridgeport.....74 (1968)...73 (1949)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...49 (2017)...61 (1945)...60/2019...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......54 (2017)...59 (2018)...58/1945...64 (1941)
JFK............52 (2017)...53 (2019)...53/2022...58 (1960)
Islip..........51 (2008)...53 (2019)...54/2022...54 (2012)
Newark.........59 (2017)...61 (2019)...62/2014...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....49 (2017)...52 (2020)...51/2014...53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/BR/MW
NEAR TERM...BG/BR/MET
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...BG/BR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/BR/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/BR/MW
CLIMATE...