000
FXUS61 KOKX 131139
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
739 AM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday. Low pressure moves
in from the south on Saturday. A frontal system approaches
from the west Sunday and passes through late Sunday night into
Monday. A series of surface troughs or weak cold fronts will then
rotate around an upper low across the area Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure will then follow for the middle of next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
With low humidity across the area and light winds temps really
cooled outside of the urban areas during the overnight. Temps in
the city are noticeably warmer to start due to the heat island
effect. The trend up in temperatures continues today with wall
to wall sunshine with high pressure south of the area in
control. Mid and upper level heights gradually rise today with
deep layer ridging getting more established. Global guidance
consensus has 850 mb temps warming to about 14 C. This should
translate to day time maxes getting well into the 80s across the
interior and away from the coast. The winds should maintain a
westerly component into this afternoon, and even for most
coastal communities for a good portion of the day. This leads to
downsloping enhancing adiabatic compression and will only serve
to warm it up further. For daytime maxes mid 80s look likely
for the NYC metro, and upper 80s across the interior and perhaps
a few interior spots reaching 90. Upper 70s and lower 80s
appear more likely for most coastal sections, with some lower
70s perhaps confined to the twin forks of LI. See the climate
section with regard to any records through the period. Also,
refer to the fire weather section with respect to fire spread
potential.
For tonight under clear skies look for a warm night for this time of
year. Thought it prudent to go a bit above guidance, especially in
the metro with regard to minimum temperatures. Cooler 50s will be
more prevalent out towards eastern sections, especially out on
LI.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another record warm day is anticipated Friday, with 850 mb temps
warming further to about 15 to 16 C. The difference into the
afternoon will be a more southerly component to the wind,
especially across the eastern half of the area. This will cool
it down, especially towards evening considerably for coastal
sections. Interior sections should get to max temperatures
comparable to today, although further east the affects of the
cooler ocean are likely to be felt sooner in the afternoon hours
with more of a wind off the colder ocean. Thus, look for 60s
and lower 70s to be more prevalent closer to the immediate
coast. Another day in which there will be plenty of sunshine,
with only a few high clouds in the afternoon.
With more of a southerly component to the prevailing flow Friday
night look for temperatures to cool down more so than the past
couple of nights. Lows should get into the middle 40s to middle 50s
further east and closer to the coast, with upper 50s to around 60
further west across the interior and for the metro.
For Friday night a frontal boundary / quasi-back door front may
sag far enough south to get into northern most zones. Overall, temps
will still average above normal, although the sfc winds become more
SE towards daybreak. Look for mid and high clouds to increase at
night. Lows will range mainly from 55 to 60 for the western half of
the area, with 45 to 50 for eastern most sections.
Look for clouds to lower early Sat morning with excellent agreement
among the deterministic global guidance with respect to an
opening wave at 500 mb approaching from the Gulf states. This
should result in positive vorticity advection and lower heights
as any upper ridging breaks down quickly during Fri night. Look
for scattered showers to develop Saturday, mainly in the
afternoon with an onshore flow more out of the SE. The coverage
in shower activity is low confidence at this time, but a few
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with some elevated instability
likely.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Just some small timing differences during this period as a weak
southern branch low passes to the south and east Saturday night into
Sunday morning ahead of an amplifying longwave trough over the mid
section of the country. The latter of which will send a stronger
frontal system across the area late Sunday night into Monday. It
will also remain unsettled Monday night into Tuesday as the
aforementioned upper trough closes of an upper low across the NE.
There is enough progression in the upper flow due to upstream Pac
Energy for conditions to dry out by mid week with high pressure
building in from the west.
Rain chances Saturday night will diminish by Sunday morning with a
respite before another round of showers moves in late Sunday into
Monday with the frontal system. Thereafter, a series of surface
troughs and/or cold fronts will move across the area Monday night
into Tuesday with a continued chance for showers.
Temperatures will also gradually work their way back to normal
levels by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain south of the area through tonight as
a trough of low pressure remains nearby. The high builds farther
offshore on Friday as a weak area of low pressure work slowly
north along Carolina coast.
VFR.
W winds less than 10 kt to start will increase to 10-15kt G20kt
by early afternoon. Winds may back a bit in the afternoon,
especially at the coastal terminals with a likely seabreeze
influence along the Connecticut and Long Island south shore. Any
gusts diminish by early evening. WSW winds less than 10 kt
tonight will back to the SW after 12Z Friday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts this afternoon may be more occasional.
Low chance for seabreeze making it to KLGA as late as 22Z.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Friday: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers, becoming IFR Saturday
night.
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers. SW G20kt
Monday afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A SW flow takes shape out over the waters today and tonight with
gusts approaching 20 kts at times out on the ocean. Otherwise, sub
small craft conditions continue through Saturday with ocean seas
averaging 2 to 3 ft. The winds will become more SE and E during the
day Saturday and Saturday night.
Sub- SCA conditions expected through at least Sunday night with a
weak pressure gradient over the area. Post-frontal SW flow on Monday
could bring minimal SCA conds (gusts up to 25 kt and seas
approaching 5 ft) to the ocean waters E of Fire Island Inlet.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The prolonged stretch of dry weather continues. Thus, continuing
with an SPS for today with the potential for fire spread with any
ignition today with min RH at 25 to 35 percent for the majority of
the CWA. Wind speeds fall just short of RFW criteria. A similar set
up on Friday, with low RH and the winds being a touch lighter. More
of a hybrid sea breeze is expected Friday afternoon for coastal
sections where the RH will be higher as a result.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 13 Apr 14
Central Park...88 (1977)...85 (1941)
LaGuardia......85 (1977)...84 (1941)
JFK............85 (1977)...78 (1949)
Islip..........82 (1977)...73 (2022)
Newark.........86 (1977)...88 (2022)
Bridgeport.....74 (1968)...73 (1949)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...61 (1945)...60 (2019)...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......59 (2018)...58 (1945)...64 (1941)
JFK............53 (2019)...53 (2022)...58 (1960)
Islip..........53 (2019)...54 (2022)...54 (2012)
Newark.........61 (2019)...62 (2014)...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....52 (2020)...51 (2014)...53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
CLIMATE...