000
FXUS61 KOKX 132046
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
446 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain in control through Friday. Weak low pressure will then approach from the southwest Friday night into Saturday, and pass south of the area Saturday night, keeping an associated warm front to the south. A cold front will approach Sunday night and move slowly across on Monday. A secondary cold front will pass through late day Tuesday into Tuesday evening, followed by high pressure on Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain south of the region tonight. It will remain a clear night with a relatively light westerly flow. A rather mild evening is expected for this time of year with overnight lows only falling into the 50s and lower 60s. A few 40s may be possible in some of the cooler spots. The NYC Metro area may see lows tonight remain in the middle (and possibly the upper) 60s. Normal lows this time of year are lower to middle 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another warm day is expected on Friday as 850mb temperatures will warm to about 15 to 16 C. Offshore high pressure will result in a S/SW flow. More of a southerly flow should keep conditions slightly cooler, along the coast, especially later in the afternoon/evening. Interior locations should see temperatures once again climb into the upper 80s to near 90. Closer to the coast, highs should once again reach the lower and middle 80s, but as noted earlier, those highs closer to the coast should occur early in the afternoon. It should be a mostly sunny day once again, however high clouds do start to filter into the area, especially late in the day. A frontal boundary approaches Friday night. This will allow clouds to gradually increase becoming mostly cloudy towards midnight. Despite the cloud cover, we should remain dry, with most precipitation remaining south of the area. Lows, while expected to be slightly cooler than what we have forecast tonight, will still be well above normal. Lows should fall into the 50s and lower 60s, except eastern sections of Long Island and Connecticut, where lows will fall into the upper 40s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Timing of the weakening low forecast to move toward the area this weekend remains consistent, with chance of showers and possibly a tstm mainly in the afternoon, then likelihood of showers Sat night, as well as fog development especially closer to the coast, as the low and an associated warm front both approach. The weak low should pass to the south. That plus a later timing of cold frontal approach/passage (Sunday night/Mon), cool air damming and a NE flow or maritime air should prevail on Sunday, with cooler, overcast conditions, also areas of fog especially closer to the coast. Fropa on Monday will be followed by cooler cond Mon night into Tue on a gusty W flow, with temps a little below normal. Another cold front moving through late Tue into into Tue evening will shift winds out of the NW into Wed, with temps near normal. Moderation to above normal temps possible on Thu as CAA wanes and high pressure briefly takes control.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR. High pressure will remain south of the area tonight and then moves further offshore on Friday. SW-SSW winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt this afternoon. Any gusts diminish by late afternoon and early evening. Wind speeds diminish this evening into the overnight with a general SW direction. Outlying terminals likely go light and variable. SW winds are expected Friday morning before becoming S in the afternoon. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be occasional this afternoon. Wind direction likely varies between 220-260 at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB into early evening with surface trough in vicinity. ...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Friday Afternoon-Night: VFR. Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers, becoming IFR Saturday night. Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers. SW G20 kt Monday afternoon. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. SW G20-25 kt Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak pressure gradient will result in sub-SCA cond through daytime Mon. Fog may be possible on the waters Sat night and Sunday night. SCA cond are possible Mon night into Tue night mainly on the ocean waters following a cold frontal passage. Near shore gusts may be possible on the non ocean waters Tue afternoon, especially on the wrn Sound and harbor.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
SPS remains in effect for the entire CWA until 9 PM as RH in most places has fallen to 15-25%, and a west wind occasionally gusting up to 20 mph. For Friday, RH values will remain low (20-40%) but winds will be lower, with less gusting. The best chances for any gusty winds will be across the coastal locations, where RH values will be higher due to and onshore flow. Because of this, we are not planning any fire weather products for Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns exist into early next week. && .CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Daily Record High Temperatures... Apr 13 Apr 14 Central Park...90 (2023)........85 (1941) LaGuardia......89 (2023)........84 (1941) JFK............85 (2023/1977)...78 (1949) Islip..........84 (2023)........73 (2022) Newark.........92 (2023)........88 (2022) Bridgeport.....79 (2023)........73 (1949) Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures... Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Central Park...61 (1945)...60 (2019)...67 (1941) LaGuardia......59 (2018)...58 (1945)...64 (1941) JFK............53 (2019)...53 (2022)...58 (1960) Islip..........53 (2019)...54 (2022)...54 (2012) Newark.........61 (2019)...62 (2014)...60 (1960) Bridgeport.....52 (2020)...51 (2014)...53 (2012)
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/BG NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...DS MARINE...BC/BG FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...BC/BG CLIMATE...