000
FXUS61 KOKX 132046
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
446 PM EDT Thu Apr 13 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain in control through Friday. Weak low
pressure will then approach from the southwest Friday night into
Saturday, and pass south of the area Saturday night, keeping an
associated warm front to the south. A cold front will approach
Sunday night and move slowly across on Monday. A secondary cold
front will pass through late day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
followed by high pressure on Wednesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure will remain south of the region tonight. It will
remain a clear night with a relatively light westerly flow. A rather
mild evening is expected for this time of year with overnight lows
only falling into the 50s and lower 60s. A few 40s may be possible
in some of the cooler spots. The NYC Metro area may see lows tonight
remain in the middle (and possibly the upper) 60s. Normal lows this
time of year are lower to middle 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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Another warm day is expected on Friday as 850mb temperatures will
warm to about 15 to 16 C. Offshore high pressure will result in a
S/SW flow. More of a southerly flow should keep conditions slightly
cooler, along the coast, especially later in the afternoon/evening.
Interior locations should see temperatures once again climb into the
upper 80s to near 90. Closer to the coast, highs should once again
reach the lower and middle 80s, but as noted earlier, those highs
closer to the coast should occur early in the afternoon. It should
be a mostly sunny day once again, however high clouds do start to
filter into the area, especially late in the day.
A frontal boundary approaches Friday night. This will allow clouds
to gradually increase becoming mostly cloudy towards midnight.
Despite the cloud cover, we should remain dry, with most
precipitation remaining south of the area. Lows, while expected to
be slightly cooler than what we have forecast tonight, will still be
well above normal. Lows should fall into the 50s and lower 60s,
except eastern sections of Long Island and Connecticut, where lows
will fall into the upper 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Timing of the weakening low forecast to move toward the area
this weekend remains consistent, with chance of showers and
possibly a tstm mainly in the afternoon, then likelihood of
showers Sat night, as well as fog development especially closer
to the coast, as the low and an associated warm front both
approach.
The weak low should pass to the south. That plus a later timing
of cold frontal approach/passage (Sunday night/Mon), cool air
damming and a NE flow or maritime air should prevail on Sunday,
with cooler, overcast conditions, also areas of fog especially
closer to the coast.
Fropa on Monday will be followed by cooler cond Mon night into
Tue on a gusty W flow, with temps a little below normal. Another
cold front moving through late Tue into into Tue evening will
shift winds out of the NW into Wed, with temps near normal.
Moderation to above normal temps possible on Thu as CAA wanes
and high pressure briefly takes control.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR. High pressure will remain south of the area tonight and then
moves further offshore on Friday.
SW-SSW winds 10-15 kt with gusts around 20 kt this afternoon. Any
gusts diminish by late afternoon and early evening. Wind speeds
diminish this evening into the overnight with a general SW
direction. Outlying terminals likely go light and variable. SW winds
are expected Friday morning before becoming S in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may be occasional this afternoon.
Wind direction likely varies between 220-260 at KLGA, KEWR, and KTEB
into early evening with surface trough in vicinity.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Friday Afternoon-Night: VFR.
Saturday: Chance of MVFR in showers, becoming IFR Saturday night.
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers. SW G20 kt
Monday afternoon.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. SW G20-25 kt
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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A weak pressure gradient will result in sub-SCA cond through
daytime Mon. Fog may be possible on the waters Sat night and
Sunday night.
SCA cond are possible Mon night into Tue night mainly on the
ocean waters following a cold frontal passage. Near shore gusts
may be possible on the non ocean waters Tue afternoon, especially
on the wrn Sound and harbor.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
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SPS remains in effect for the entire CWA until 9 PM as RH in
most places has fallen to 15-25%, and a west wind occasionally
gusting up to 20 mph.
For Friday, RH values will remain low (20-40%) but winds will
be lower, with less gusting. The best chances for any gusty
winds will be across the coastal locations, where RH values will
be higher due to and onshore flow. Because of this, we are not
planning any fire weather products for Friday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist into early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
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Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 13 Apr 14
Central Park...90 (2023)........85 (1941)
LaGuardia......89 (2023)........84 (1941)
JFK............85 (2023/1977)...78 (1949)
Islip..........84 (2023)........73 (2022)
Newark.........92 (2023)........88 (2022)
Bridgeport.....79 (2023)........73 (1949)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...61 (1945)...60 (2019)...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......59 (2018)...58 (1945)...64 (1941)
JFK............53 (2019)...53 (2022)...58 (1960)
Islip..........53 (2019)...54 (2022)...54 (2012)
Newark.........61 (2019)...62 (2014)...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....52 (2020)...51 (2014)...53 (2012)-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/BG
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/BG
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/BG
CLIMATE...