000
FXUS61 KOKX 141151
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 AM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control today. Occluded low pressure
approaches from the south Saturday and then moves east on Sunday.
A cold front will approach Sunday night and move slowly across on
Monday. A secondary cold front will then pass through late day
Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast remains on track with no adjustments on this update.
Another warm day is expected today as 850mb temperatures remain
at about 15 to 16 C. Offshore high pressure results in more of a
S/SW flow, especially into the afternoon. More of a southerly
flow should keep conditions slightly cooler, along the coast,
especially later in the afternoon/evening. Interior locations
should see temperatures once again climb into the upper 80s to
around 90. Closer to the coast, highs should once again reach
the lower and middle 80s, but these highs closer to the coast
should occur quite early in the afternoon and will be followed
by temps falling through the 70s later in the day. It should be
a mostly sunny day once again, however high clouds do start to
filter into the area, especially further south and west late in
the day and towards evening.
A frontal boundary approaches from the north tonight, while occluded
low pressure down to the south and southwest begins to approach.
This will allow clouds to gradually increase with just high clouds
before 2 am. More of a mid deck arrives during the pre-dawn hours
with lowering heights as the upper ridging begins to break down
quickly. Despite the cloud cover it should remain dry, with most
precipitation remaining south of the area. Lows will still be well
above normal on average, although cooler than the past couple of
nights as more of. Lows should fall into the 50s and lower 60s,
except eastern sections of Long Island and Connecticut, where lows
will fall into the noticeably cooler upper 40s. Some patchy fog may
try to from towards early Sat AM further south and closer to the
ocean.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Look for clouds to lower early Sat morning with excellent agreement
among the deterministic global guidance with respect to the an
opening wave at 500 mb approaching from the Gulf states. This should
result in positive vorticity advection with the remnant 500 mb low
getting over the area late in the day Sat and for the evening. Look
for scattered showers to develop with an onshore flow more out of
the SE during the day, with a higher likelihood for showers later in
the afternoon and evening (first half of Saturday night). The
coverage in shower activity is likely to increase some for Sat eve /
the first half of Sat night. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out
with some elevated instability likely as more of a SE flow promotes
more of a maritime influence. Thus, the possibility of severe wx
looks to be out with a lack of instability lower down in the column.
With the cloud cover and onshore flow looks for temps to cool some
on Saturday with widespread lower and middle 60s along the
shorelines, and upper 60s to mid 70s further inland. Lows Sat night
will trend down further, but will still run a bit above normal. The
difficult part of the forecast is determining how much fog can form
and whether the flow closer to the sfc will be light enough to
promote fog into Saturday night and Sunday morning.
For Sunday the occluded low should get east of the area, with the
mid levels drying out. Low clouds are likely to persist, but little
lift and moisture higher up to support organized or meaningful
precip. Much of Sunday will be dry, just a good amount of cloud
cover being likely. The mid levels will remain quite mild, but with
an onshore flow out of the east on Sunday and a frontal boundary
nearby temperatures will be considerably cooler. Temps will be
closer to normal with widespread 60s, with some middle and upper 50s
across eastern coastal sections.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Global models have been fairly consistent with taking a closed upper
low over the Great Lakes Sunday night east across eastern Canada and
the Northeast Monday into Tuesday. However, the trend has been to
slow the system down, which is now reflected by a frontal system
moving across the area Monday into Tuesday evening. The system will
be accompanied by showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Any rain Sunday
night now looks to be closer to daybreak Monday. Area looks to be
mainly north of the warm front on Monday with the triple point low
passing in close proximity during the afternoon into early evening
hours. This will likely mean the area will remain under low clouds
and possible fog through the day.
Following a cold frontal passage Monday evening, a more seasonable
airmass will move into the region through mid week on a gusty W-NW
flow. A low chance of showers will remain in the forecast for
Tuesday as the upper low moves across the region with a secondary
cold front late in the day. High pressure then builds in for the
middle of the week.
Temperatures will return to seasonable levels or slightly below by
Tuesday and then begin to gradually warm back up Wednesday into
Thursday as heights build aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will remain centered near Bermuda through today,
while a weak area of low pressure tracks slowly north over the
Carolinas.
Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR/IFR moving into the coastal
terminals between 09Z and 12Z Saturday.
S to SW less than 10 kt this morning becomes S by afternoon at
around 10 kt. Winds remain light southerly tonight, backing to
the ESE toward 12Z Saturday as a weak front settles across the
area.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Seabreeze at KJFK may get to around 15 kt.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday: IFR possible at the coastal terminals in the morning,
otherwise a chance of MVFR in showers. IFR in showers Saturday
night.
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers. SW G20 kt
Monday afternoon.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. WSW G20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas should average 2 to 3 ft on the ocean waters through Sunday.
The winds will have more of a southerly component into this
afternoon. The winds then become SE early Sat morning, then more out
of the E Saturday and through the weekend. A weak pressure gradient
will result in sub-SCA conditions through Monday. Areas of fog will
be likely Sunday night into Monday.
SCA cond are possible Monday night through Tuesday mainly on the
ocean waters following a cold frontal passage. Near shore gusts may
be possible on the non ocean waters Tue afternoon, especially on the
wrn Sound and harbor.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
After collaboration with state land managing partners an SPS has
been issued for Southern CT given that conditions remain quite dry
with continued low relative humidity through today, despite wind
speeds being below criteria. Today looks to be the last day in which
conditions will be somewhat conducive for wild fire activity as
relative humidity levels increase into Saturday, with the potential
for a wetting rain Saturday and Saturday evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 14
Central Park...85 (1941)
LaGuardia......84 (1941)
JFK............78 (1949)
Islip..........73 (2022)
Newark.........88 (2022)
Bridgeport.....73 (1949)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...60 (2019)...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......58 (1945)...64 (1941)
JFK............53 (2022)...58 (1960)
Islip..........54 (2022)...54 (2012)
Newark.........62 (2014)...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....51 (2014)...53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
CLIMATE...