000
FXUS61 KOKX 141959
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure erodes tonight. Occluded low pressure approaches
from the south Saturday and then moves east on Sunday. A cold
front will approach Sunday night and move slowly across on
Monday. A secondary cold front will then pass through late day
Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in for the middle of
next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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After a very warm afternoon, a frontal boundary approaches from
the north tonight, while occluded low pressure down to the
south and southwest begins to approach. This will allow clouds
to gradually increase with just high clouds before 2 am. More of
a mid deck arrives during the pre-dawn hours with lowering
heights as the upper ridging begins to break down quickly.
Despite the cloud cover it should remain dry, with most
precipitation remaining south of the area. Lows will still be
well above normal on average, although cooler than the past
couple of nights as more of. Lows should fall into the 50s and
lower 60s, except eastern sections of Long Island and
Connecticut, where lows will fall into the noticeably cooler
upper 40s. Some patchy fog may try to from towards early Sat AM
further south and closer to the ocean.
Look for clouds to lower early Sat morning with excellent agreement
among the deterministic global guidance with respect to the an
opening wave at 500 mb approaching from the Gulf states. This should
result in positive vorticity advection with the remnant 500 mb low
getting over the area late in the day Sat and for the evening. Look
for scattered showers to develop with an onshore flow more out of
the SE during the day, with a higher likelihood for showers later in
the afternoon and evening (first half of Saturday night). Cannot
rule out a thunderstorm late afternoon to early evening as a
result of some elevated instability. With that said, severe
weather chances will likely be muted due to the SE flow
promoting more of a maritime influence. With the cloud cover
and onshore flow looks for temps to cool some on Saturday with
widespread lower and middle 60s along the shorelines, and upper
60s to mid 70s further inland.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The coverage in shower activity (with a slight chance for
thunderstorms) is likely to increase some for Sat eve / the
first half of Sat night. Lows Sat night will trend down further,
but will still run a bit above normal. The difficult part of
the forecast is determining how much fog can form and whether
the flow closer to the sfc will be light enough to promote fog
into Saturday night and Sunday morning.
For Sunday the occluded low should get east of the area, with the
mid levels drying out. Low clouds are likely to persist, but little
lift and moisture higher up to support organized or meaningful
precip. Much of Sunday will be dry, just a good amount of cloud
cover being likely. The mid levels will remain quite mild, but with
an onshore flow out of the east on Sunday and a frontal boundary
nearby temperatures will be considerably cooler. Temps will be
closer to normal with widespread 60s, with some middle and upper 50s
across eastern coastal sections.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Global models have been fairly consistent with taking a closed
upper low over the Great Lakes Sunday night east across eastern
Canada and the Northeast Monday into Tuesday. However, the trend
has been to slow the system down, which is now reflected by a
frontal system moving across the area Monday into Tuesday
evening. The system will be accompanied by showers, possibly a
thunderstorm. Any rain Sunday night now looks to be closer to
daybreak Monday. Area looks to be mainly north of the warm front
on Monday with the triple point low passing in close proximity
during the afternoon into early evening hours. This will likely
mean the area will remain under low clouds and possible fog
through the day.
Following a cold frontal passage Monday evening, a more seasonable
airmass will move into the region through mid week on a gusty W-NW
flow. A low chance of showers will remain in the forecast for
Tuesday as the upper low moves across the region with a secondary
cold front late in the day. High pressure then builds in for the
middle of the week.
Temperatures will return to seasonable levels or slightly below
by Tuesday and then begin to gradually warm back up Wednesday
into Friday as heights build aloft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure positioned over the Atlantic will remain in
control through the rest of the evening before a weak low
pressure system tracks northward across the region beginning
Saturday morning and through the afternoon.
VFR through early tonight. Winds remain light out of the south
tonight, backing to the ESE toward 12Z Saturday as a weak front
settles across the area. MVFR/IFR moving into the coastal
terminals between 09Z and 12Z Saturday with MVFR ceilings
lingering through Saturday afternoon with showers beginning the
in the afternoon. IFR conditions possible late afternoon into
the early evening with heavier downpours. E to ESE winds around
10 kts prevail through the day Saturday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Sub-VFR ceilings arriving around 12Z Saturday.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
Saturday night: IFR possible with showers. E to ENE winds 5-10
kts.
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers. SW G20 kt
Monday afternoon.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. WSW G20-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Seas should average 2 to 3 ft on the ocean waters through Sunday.
The winds will have more of a southerly component into this
afternoon. The winds then become SE early Sat morning, then more out
of the E Saturday and through the weekend. A weak pressure gradient
will result in sub-SCA conditions through Monday. Areas of fog will
be likely Sunday night into Monday.
SCA cond are possible Monday night through Tuesday mainly on the
ocean waters following a cold frontal passage. Near shore gusts may
be possible on the non ocean waters Tue afternoon, especially on the
wrn Sound and harbor.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
After collaboration with state land managing partners an SPS has
been issued for Southern CT given that conditions remain quite dry
with continued low relative humidity through today, despite wind
speeds being below criteria. Today looks to be the last day in which
conditions will be somewhat conducive for wild fire activity as
relative humidity levels increase into Saturday, with the potential
for a wetting rain Saturday and Saturday evening.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Temperatures...
Apr 14
Central Park...85 (1941)
LaGuardia......84 (1941)
JFK............78 (1949)
Islip..........73 (2022)
Newark.........88 (2022)
Bridgeport.....73 (1949)
Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures...
Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...60 (2019)...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......58 (1945)...64 (1941)
JFK............53 (2022)...58 (1960)
Islip..........54 (2022)...54 (2012)
Newark.........62 (2014)...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....51 (2014)...53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...JE/MJL
SHORT TERM...JE/MJL
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...DW/MJL
MARINE...JE/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
CLIMATE...