000
FXUS61 KOKX 150044
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
844 PM EDT Fri Apr 14 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure erodes tonight. Occluded low pressure approaches
from the south Saturday and then moves east on Sunday. A cold
front will approach Sunday night and move slowly across on
Monday. A secondary cold front will then pass through late day
Tuesday, followed by high pressure building in for the middle of
next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
After a very warm afternoon, a frontal boundary approaches from
the north tonight, while occluded low pressure down to the
south and southwest begins to approach. This will allow clouds
to gradually increase with just high clouds before 2 AM. More
of a mid level cloud deck arrives during the pre-dawn hours with
lowering heights as the upper ridging begins to break down
quickly. Despite the cloud cover it should remain dry, with most
precipitation remaining south of the area. Lows will still be
well above normal on average, although cooler than the past
couple of nights as more of. Lows should fall into the 50s and
lower 60s, except eastern sections of Long Island and
Connecticut, where lows will fall into the noticeably cooler
upper 40s. Some patchy fog may try to from towards early morning
closer to the ocean.
Look for clouds to lower early Sat morning with excellent
agreement among the deterministic global guidance with respect
to the an opening wave at 500 mb approaching from the Gulf
states. This should result in positive vorticity advection with
the remnant 500 mb low getting over the area late in the day Sat
and for the evening. Look for scattered showers to develop with
an onshore flow more out of the SE during the day, with a
higher likelihood for showers later in the afternoon and evening
(first half of Saturday night). Cannot rule out a thunderstorm
late afternoon to early evening as a result of some elevated
instability. With that said, severe weather chances will likely
be muted due to the SE flow promoting more of a maritime
influence. With the cloud cover and onshore flow looks for temps
to cool some on Saturday with widespread lower and middle 60s
along the shorelines, and upper 60s to mid 70s further inland.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The coverage in shower activity (with a slight chance for
thunderstorms) is likely to increase some for the first half of
Sat night. Lows Sat night will trend down further, but will
still run a bit above normal. The difficult part of the
forecast is determining how much fog can form and whether the
flow closer to the sfc will be light enough to promote fog into
Saturday night and Sunday morning.
For Sunday the occluded low should get east of the area, with
the mid levels drying out. Low clouds are likely to persist,
but little lift and moisture higher up to support organized or
meaningful precip. Much of Sunday will be dry, just a good
amount of cloud cover being likely. The mid levels will remain
quite mild, but with an onshore flow out of the east on Sunday
and a frontal boundary nearby temperatures will be considerably
cooler. Temps will be closer to normal with widespread 60s, with
some middle and upper 50s across eastern coastal sections.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Global models have been fairly consistent with taking a closed
upper low over the Great Lakes Sunday night east across
eastern Canada and the Northeast Monday into Tuesday. However,
the trend has been to slow the system down, which is now
reflected by a frontal system moving across the area Monday into
Tuesday evening. The system will be accompanied by showers,
possibly a thunderstorm. Any rain Sunday night now looks to be
closer to daybreak Monday. Area looks to be mainly north of the
warm front on Monday with the triple point low passing in close
proximity during the afternoon into early evening hours. This
will likely mean the area will remain under low clouds and
possible fog through the day.
Following a cold frontal passage Monday evening, a more
seasonable air mass will move into the region through mid week
on a gusty W-NW flow. A low chance of showers will remain in the
forecast for Tuesday as the upper low moves across the region
with a secondary cold front late in the day. High pressure then
builds in for the middle of the week.
Temperatures will return to seasonable levels or slightly below
by Tuesday and then begin to gradually warm back up Wednesday
into Friday as heights build aloft.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure positioned over the Atlantic will remain in
control through the rest of the evening before a weak low
pressure system tracks northward across the region beginning
Saturday morning and through the afternoon as a frontal boundary
remains over or just north of the region through the TAF
period.
VFR through much of the night. MVFR/IFR conditions move into the
coastal terminals after 09Z Saturday with MVFR ceilings
continuing through Saturday afternoon and showers beginning the
in the afternoon. IFR conditions possible late Saturday
afternoon into the early evening. Winds remain light out of the
south tonight, shifting to the ESE toward 12Z Saturday. E to ESE
winds less than 10 kt prevail through the day Saturday.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
High confidence in sub-VFR conditions. Low to medium confidence
in IFR conditions. Low confidence in visibility.
...OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Saturday night: IFR possible with showers. E to ENE winds 5-10
kts.
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers. E to SE
winds less than 10 kt on Sunday, increasing to 10 to 15 kt on
Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. WSW G20-25 kt shifting the
NW Wednesday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minimal SCA conds were occurring S of NYC per obs at 44065 where
the Ambrose jet was gusting to 25 kt, with seas 5 ft. Issued
short fused SCA for this evening.
Otherwise, ocean seas should average 2-3 ft through Sunday.
Winds become SE early Sat morning, then more out of the E
Saturday and through the weekend. A weak pressure gradient will
result in sub-SCA conditions through Monday. Areas of fog will
be likely Sunday night into Monday.
SCA cond are possible Monday night through Tuesday mainly on the
ocean waters following a cold frontal passage. Near shore gusts
may be possible on the non ocean waters Tue afternoon,
especially on the wrn Sound and harbor.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
Today looks to be the last day for the time being with
conditions somewhat conducive for enhanced wildfire activity, as
RH relative humidity levels increase into Saturday, with the
potential for a wetting rain Saturday and Saturday evening.
Weather conds favorable for fire growth/spread are likely to
return next week beginning Tue. Wed appears to be the day of
greatest concern, with NW winds 15-25 mph and RH 25-30%.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Daily record high temps were set at all 6 local climate sites as
temps rose in the the 80s and lower 90s. See RER products for
details.
Daily record high minimum temperatures are likely to be set for
today, and approached at a few sites for Saturday:
Apr 14 Apr 15
Central Park...60 (2019)...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......58 (1945)...64 (1941)
JFK............53 (2022)...58 (1960)
Islip..........54 (2022)...54 (2012)
Newark.........62 (2014)...60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....51 (2014)...53 (2012)-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...BG/MJL
SHORT TERM...JE/MJL
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JP/MJL
MARINE...BG/JE/DW
FIRE WEATHER...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG
CLIMATE...BG