000
FXUS61 KOKX 152339
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
739 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure passes across the area tonight and then east
on Sunday. A cold front will approach Sunday night and move
across the area on Monday. Weakening low pressure remains
over eastern Canada and into the northeast Monday night and
Tuesday. High pressure builds in for Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and moves offshore Wednesday night. A frontal system
impacts the area Friday into Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Areas of dense fog have developed across most of Suffolk County
early this evening. Fog will persist into the overnight hours,
with the dense fog possibly becoming more widespread. A dense
fog advisory has been issued for eastern Suffolk, and
southwestern Suffolk. Through southern Connecticut and
northwestern Suffolk fog was widespread with visibilities around
1 mile, or less, with patchy dense fog. Have issued a special
weather statement for these areas, and if the dense fog becomes
more widespread a dense fog advisory may be needed.
An upper low over the Middle Atlantic will move across the area
tonight. Accompanying the upper low will be a weak surface low
that moves near Long Island tonight and then east early Sunday
morning.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms have slowly shifted to the
east this evening with the weak surface low, and were into
northeastern New Jersey. The showers and thunderstorms have
weakened as they have moved into a more stable area, with a
marine influence. Will have isolated thunderstorms into New
York City until 10 PM to 11 PM. The approaching upper low may
help add some lift and instability aloft and could help push
some of the shower/storms towards the NYC and NE NJ metro
region.Showers are possible this evening into tonight further
east across Connecticut and Long Island with the upper low
moving over the area. Guidance hints at activity diminishing in
coverage overnight for much of the area. However, the weak
surface low passing to the east could sustain some scattered
showers across eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut into
the early morning hours.
Another round of record high minimums are possible before
midnight (see climate section below). Lows Sunday morning will
be in the 50s, about 10-15 degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
The upper low and weak surface low shift east of the area early
Sunday. Heights will build aloft behind the departing system and
a much stronger upper low near the Great Lakes.
Sunday should be mainly dry with low clouds and fog lingering
along the immediate coast. There should be at least partial
clearing across the interior and potentially down into the NYC
metro in the afternoon. Highs will range from the 60s across
Long Island and Connecticut and the lower 70s along and east of
the Hudson River.
The associated cold front approaches Sunday night and the moves
across the area on Monday. Fog remains possible, especially near
the immediate coast. A band of showers will accompany the front
Monday morning and then lift out of the area early Monday
afternoon, potentially lingering across eastern CT longest.
There is some very marginal instability, but have left mention
of thunder out of the forecast for now. Rainfall continue to
look around a quarter inch or less. Decreasing clouds and
improving conditions are expected from west to east in the late
afternoon/early evening. Temperatures remain above normal on
Monday with highs in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weakening upper low and surface low remain across eastern
Canada Monday night into Tuesday as cyclonic flow persists.
Lingering low level moisture will allow for clouds Monday night
into Tuesday with a more seasonal airmass moving into the
region. Have trended dry for Monday night into Tuesday as the
low and better lift has shifted northward. Heights begin to rise
with weak ridging Tuesday night as the upper low continues to
weaken and track north. Weak low level cold advection will end
toward Wednesday morning, and warm advection then sets up during
Wednesday. A warm front will be approaching late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Moisture will be limited with the front, and
the best frontal forcing and frontolysis is also to the north.
The NBM and global guidance keep the area dry for now, however
with precipitation possible just to the north a shift southward
in the later guidance may have light rain across portions of the
region. With the area likely warm sectored Thursday and Friday
have leaned toward the 75th percentile for temperatures. A cold
front will approach later Friday into Saturday, and possible
move through late in the day. There are timing uncertainties
this far out in time, and with a negatively tilted upper trough
and closed low remaining well to the west. Best chances,
although just slight, for convection will be across the inland
areas away from the marine influence, and have added a slight
chance Friday afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure will slowly pass through the area tonight
and into Sunday.
Any MVFR conditions this evening will lower to IFR and possible
LIFR. LIFR is expected for most coastal and NYC terminals with
fog and low stratus. A slight improvement to MVFR is possible
for NYC and interior terminals by early afternoon. Coastal
terminals may briefly improve to MVFR mid-afternoon Sunday but
there is a chance it remains IFR all day. Any MVFR conditions
Sunday drop to IFR again by Sunday evening.
Scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms over the
western portion of the area (near the NYC terminals) are
expected to weaken over the new several hours such that
everywhere should be mostly dry by 2-3Z.
Winds mainly E-ESE at 10 kt or less through the TAF period,
with direction VRB at times.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Showers may hang on a bit longer than forecast tonight. Timing
of category changes tonight and then improving on Sunday may be
+/- a few hours.
Amendments likely for changing categories this evening and into
Sunday morning.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday night: IFR or lower possible. Chance of showers late.
Light and vrb winds becoming E.
Monday: MVFR or lower with a chance of shwrs, mainly early.
Winds shifting to the SW.
Tuesday-Thursday: VFR with W flow.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A dense fog advisory is in effect on all waters through 8 am
Sunday. There has been some brief improvement in visibility
noted on some webcams near shore in the NY Harbor, ocean west
of Fire Island Inlet, and western Long Island Sound. However,
think this will be short-lived as warm and moist air will
continue to move over the colder waters. Loss of daytime heating
with sunset and a continued SE flow will help cool the boundary
layer to support redevelopment/expansion of dense fog.
Elsewhere, dense fog is expected to persist into early Sunday
morning. Areas of fog will likely persist on the waters on
Sunday, but confidence is not high if it will be dense or not
beyond early Sunday morning. An extension in time of the
advisory is possible.
Otherwise, an weak easterly flow across the waters Sunday night
will result in sub-SCA conditions. A cold front moves across the
waters Monday morning, and winds will increase behind the front
to around 20 kt Monday afternoon.
Marginal SCA conditions are possible on the eastern ocean waters
early Monday night as a cold front passes to the east. Then behind
the cold front marginal SCA gusts will be possible across the
forecast waters Tuesday, and possible into Tuesday night on the
ocean waters. Gusts across the forecast waters diminish Tuesday
night as high pressure builds toward the waters. And winds and seas
remain below advisory levels Wednesday into Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high minimum temperatures are possible at a few
sites for Apr 15.
Apr 15
Central Park...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......64 (1941)
JFK............58 (1960)
Islip..........54 (2012)
Newark.........60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ079>081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
CLIMATE...