000
FXUS61 KOKX 151634
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1234 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak low pressure approaches from the south and passes across
the area tonight and then east on Sunday. A cold front will
approach Sunday night and move across the area on Monday. A
secondary cold front will then pass through late day Tuesday.
High pressure builds in for the middle of the next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Forecast largely on track early this afternoon. There may be
some locally dense fog immediately along the shore into the
afternoon, but do not think any widespread dense fog will occur
the rest of the afternoon away from the shore. Will have to
watch trends this evening once the boundary layer cools and
sunsets.
Otherwise, an upper low over the Mid Atlantic states will lift
slowly NE through tonight, ahead of an amplifying longwave
trough over the mid section of the country. This will result in
increasing shower chances this afternoon, with the best chance
being north and west of NYC. Already seeing some development
across SW Orange County with a few lightning strikes. Marginal
instability and a weakly sheared environment could result in a
few thunderstorms north and west of the NYC metro this afternoon
and evening. Elsewhere, expecting only a chance of showers
through tonight. Airmass will also stabilize by early this
evening across the interior with only a chance of showers as
well.
Highs today will range from near 60 far eastern LI/SE CT, to
around 70 across inland areas and the NYC metro. This will fall
well below the record highs we have been experiencing in recent
days. However, another round of record high minimums are
possible before midnight (see climate section below). Lows
Sunday morning will be in the 50s, about 10-15 degrees above
normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday, the area will be between systems as the upper low
lifts out of the area in the morning, and heights build aloft
ahead of the negatively tilting upper low/trough lifting into
the Great Lakes. The day should be mainly dry with low
clouds/fog lingering along the immediate coast with some
partial clearing across the interior. The associated cold front
approaches Sunday night and the moves across the area on Monday.
Marginal instability will once again result in a slight chance
of thunderstorms, but showers are likely to be widespread late
Sunday night into the Monday. Rainfall amounts will generally be
a quarter inch or less.
Areas of fog will continue to impact coastal locations until
the cold frontal passage Monday afternoon. The fog is expected
to be more patchy in nature farther inland.
Temperatures will gradually trend downward during this time, but
still remain above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Following a cold frontal passage Monday, a more seasonable air
mass will move into the region through mid week on a gusty W-NW
flow. A low chance of showers will remain in the forecast for
Tuesday as the upper low moves across the region with a
secondary cold front late in the day. High pressure then builds
in for the middle of the week.
Temperatures will return to seasonable levels or slightly below
by Tuesday and then begin to gradually warm back up Wednesday
into Friday as heights build aloft.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An area of weak low pressure tracks northward across the region
through the afternoon as a frontal boundary remains over or
just north of the region through the TAF period.
IFR or lower for far ern terminals thru the TAF period, perhaps
with some breaks to MVFR or VFR late mrng into the early aftn
before deterioration this eve.
For the rest of the area, mainly VFR today excepts pockets of
IFR/MVFR thru 16-17Z. Conditions worsen late this eve, with IFR
or lower expected tngt.
There is also the potential for convection this afternoon. SE
to E winds at EWR and TEB should help keep convection west of
the terminals, making any convection more of an enroute issue
and less of a terminal issue. Will continue to monitor trends
increase any mention of thunder needs to be added to KEWR/KTEB.
Confidence of any convection at KSWF still remains low enough to
include in the TAF.
E to ESE winds less than 10 kt prevail through the TAF period.
Direction could become vrb tngt.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low confidence TAF forecast with respect to ceilings/vsbys.
Low chance of thunder impacting western terminals today and have
not included at thunder in the TAFs.
...OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday and Monday: MVFR or lower possible in showers. E to SE
winds less than 10 kt on Sunday, increasing to 10 to 15 kt on
Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. WSW G20-25 kt shifting the
NW Wednesday.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.
&&
.MARINE...
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The dense fog advisory has been extended on the ocean, Long
Island Bays, and Long Island Sound until 5 pm. Have issued a
marine weather statement on the NY harbor for more locally
dense fog this afternoon. There may be some brief improvement
this afternoon, but some of the Advisory may need to be extended
into tonight. The highest probabilities for dense fog to
continue tonight is across the eastern waters. The warm, moist
air moving over the colder waters may keep areas of fog, likely
dense at times, through a portion of Sunday morning as well.
Otherwise, an weak easterly flow across the waters through
Monday morning will result in sub-SCA conditions.
SCA cond are possible Monday night through Tuesday mainly on the
ocean waters following a cold frontal passage. Near shore gusts
may be possible on the non ocean waters Tue afternoon,
especially on the wrn Sound and harbor.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Daily record high minimum temperatures are possible at a few
sites today.
Apr 15
Central Park...67 (1941)
LaGuardia......64 (1941)
JFK............58 (1960)
Islip..........54 (2012)
Newark.........60 (1960)
Bridgeport.....53 (2012)
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
332-335-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BC/12
MARINE...BC/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW
CLIMATE...