Discussion on 2023-04-16

000
FXUS61 KOKX 161004
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
604 AM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure passes east of the area today. A cold front
will then approach tonight and move across the area on Monday.
Weakening low pressure remains over eastern Canada and into the
Northeast Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure builds in for
Tuesday night into Wednesday, and moves offshore Wednesday
night. A frontal system impacts the area Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --Showers have lifted to the NE in conjunction with the upper
low, but eastern areas could still see a shower this morning.

Otherwise, expect a foggy start to the day as light E/SE winds
continue to bring fog in off the marine waters. A dense fog
advisory remains in effect until 10 am for coastal areas.
However, patchy dense fog is possible away from the coast.

Shortwave ridging behind the departing upper low and daytime
heating will allow for gradual improvement through the morning
with skies becoming partly sunny away from the immediate
shoreline, where fog could persist, especially along the south
shore of LI and the CT coast.

It will be another unseasonably warm day, especially north of
west of the NYC metro, where highs could top in the lower 70s.
Elsewhere, readings will be in the 60s with even some mid 50s
across far eastern LI under the marine influence with low
clouds and fog.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A well advertised upper low part of a negatively tilting upper
trough, will work slowly NE across the Great Lakes tonight into
Monday. It will send a frontal system toward the area with a
weak frontal wave approaching the area Monday morning. The
front passes through from west to east during the morning into
the early afternoon hours. Weak lift and marginal instability
will allow for showers to develop late tonight with a line of
showers likely moving through the area. Thunderstorms look
unlikely at this time.

Conditions dry out behind the front with drier air working in
on SW winds in the afternoon. A few gusts up to 20 mph will be
possible. A more seasonable airmass follows for Monday night
into Tuesday, but not before Monday tops out in the 60s for most
locations. Lows Monday night will drop into the 40s in outlying
areas and around 50 for the NYC. While cooler, this is still
several degrees above normal. Tuesday will be right around
normal with highs in the upper 50s to around 60. The day will
be accompanied by gusty W winds (up to 30 mph) with intervals
of clouds and sunshine as the upper trough moves across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Heights begin to rise with weak ridging Tuesday night as the
upper low continues to weaken and track north. Weak low level
cold advection will end toward Wednesday morning, and warm
advection then sets up during Wednesday. A warm front will be
approaching late Wednesday into Wednesday night. Moisture will
be limited with the front, and the best frontal forcing and
frontolysis is also to the north. The NBM and global guidance
keep the area dry for now, however with precipitation possible
just to the north a shift southward in the later guidance may
have light rain across portions of the region. With the area
likely warm sectored Thursday and Friday have leaned toward the
75th percentile for temperatures. A cold front will approach
later Friday into Saturday, and possible move through late in
the day. There are timing uncertainties this far out in time,
and with a negatively tilted upper trough and closed low
remaining well to the west. Best chances, although just slight,
for convection will be across the inland areas away from the
marine influence, and have added a slight chance Friday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pressure passes to the east today, while a cold front
approaches from the west tonight.

Widespread LIFR conditions this morning, with the only exception at
KSWF where MVFR conditions are being observed.

Some improvement is likely later today, however only to about MVFR
for NYC and interior terminals by early afternoon. Coastal terminals
may briefly improve to MVFR mid-afternoon Sunday but there is a
chance it remains IFR all day. Any MVFR conditions Sunday afternoon
drop to IFR or lower again this evening and overnight.

Isolated rain showers are possible early this morning. Another
chance of rain showers comes tonight, with the passage of the next
low. Some improvement tonight is possible in any showers.

Winds mainly E-ESE at 10 kt or less through the TAF period, with
direction VRB at times.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of category changes tonight and then improvements on
Sunday may be +/- a few hours.

Amendments likely for changing categories through the TAF
period.

 OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Late Tonight: IFR or lower possible. Chance of showers late.
Light and vrb winds becoming E.

Monday: MVFR or lower with a chance of shwrs, mainly early.
Winds shifting to the SW.

Tuesday-Thursday: VFR with W flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.

&&

.MARINE...
The dense fog advisory has been extend into the early afternoon
an E/SE flow continue to transport, warm, moist air across the
cooler waters. There is a good chance this will need to be
extended, or reissued later tonight. There is some uncertainty
with some drier low-level air working in late today into
tonight.

Otherwise, an weak easterly flow across the waters will result
in sub-SCA conditions. A cold front moves across the waters
Monday morning, and winds will increase behind the front to
around 20 kt Monday afternoon.

Marginal SCA gusts will be possible across all waters Tuesday,
and possibly into Tuesday night on the ocean waters. Gusts
across the forecast waters gradually diminish on Wednesday as
high pressure builds toward the waters. Winds and seas are
forecast to be below advisory levels Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NYZ071-073-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MET/DW
HYDROLOGY...MET/DW