000
FXUS61 KOKX 162345
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Appalachians will approach the area
tonight and slowly pass through on Monday. Low pressure remains
over eastern Canada and into the northeast Monday night into
Tuesday. High pressure builds in for Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and moves offshore Wednesday night. A warm front
slowly approaches Thursday. Low pressure impacts the region
Friday with a cold front passing through the area Saturday. Low
pressure remains nearby Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Updated for current conditions. Fog and stratus redeveloping,
mainly along the Connecticut coast, and the south fork of Long
Island.
A maritime airmass will remain entrenched thru tngt. Any
erosion on the nrn edge is expected to fill in this eve, with
the fog once again thickening near the coasts. Mid and high
clouds may be a limiting factor for fog density, so no advy will
be issued attm for land.
An arc of pcpn, with a few tstms, extended from MI to WV at 19Z.
This area of rain, associated with some dpva along with the sfc
front, brings increasing chances for pcpn late tngt into Mon, with
shwrs likely in the 6-18Z time period with wrn areas near the
earlier end and ern areas later. Pwats generally less than 1.5
inches, along with progged storm motion around 10 kt and limited
instability, should minimize the threat of heavy amounts of pcpn.
Instability looks to be elevated, so chances for tstms low with any
impacts limited to some locally heavier rain and isold lightning.
Conditions dry out late Mon as dry air sweeps in on swly flow. Wind
gusts around 20kt likely with deep mixing.
With ocean temps around 50, overnight lows in the marine environment
per the NBM appeared somewhat reasonable. Did limit the numbers
across ern LI where it looked like the radiational cooling climo
component was overdone.
Highs on Mon warmest in wrn areas and away from the immediate south
coasts due to the sly component wind. It is possible that highs max
out a little warmer than fcst across these areas due to the deep
mixing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/...
A WSW breeze is expected to continue Mon ngt, especially near the
coasts. Some of the sheltered interior areas could decouple,
resulting in colder temps. Despite this, went closer to the warmer
guidance of the NBM because of the expected wind. There may also be
some 3000-5000 ft cloud cover at times as well despite the
subsidence per the model time heights. No rain is expected with this
setup.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A nearly vertically stacked upper and surface low remain across
eastern Canada Tuesday with a cyclonic flow, and with some lingering
low level moisture fair weather cumulus are likely.
Temperatures will be near seasonal normals.
Heights begin to rise Tuesday night as the upper low weakens and
track north, and a more amplified ridge builds to the west, into the
Great Lakes region by Wednesday morning. Weak low level cold
advection ends toward Wednesday morning, and warm advection then
sets up during Wednesday. A warm front will be approaching late
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Moisture will be limited with the
front, and the best frontal forcing and frontolysis remains to the
north. There is some uncertainty in the global guidance as to
whether or not any precipitation will occur with the frontal forcing
Wednesday night into Thursday, and leaning toward the NBM
probabilities will keeping the area dry. The warm front now looks to
remain to the south of the region into Friday as the more amplified
ridge slows the eastward progression of the next system. Still
leaned toward the 50th and 75th percentiles for temperatures
Thursday into Saturday. Still bringing in chances for precipitation
late Friday, only slightly slower than the previous forecasts, and
continue to mention a slight chance of thunder inland with weak CAPE
and surface based instability. Also mentioned convection Saturday
afternoon across the region as the cold front approaches although
CAPE and instability will be more elevated. The front will be slow
to move through the region as the upper low remains well to the
west, and precipitation may be possible through Sunday with the
potential for a wave to develop Sunday along the offshore cold
front.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front approaches from the west tonight, passing across the
area Monday morning.
Mainly VFR or MVFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to
rapidly deteriorate over the next 1-2 hours to IFR/LIFR and
remain through Monday morning. Another round of showers comes
early Monday morning mainly after 8Z, with the passage of the
cold front/low pressure system. As winds increase behind the
cold front Monday anticipate some improvement in visibilities to
VFR levels after 15Z and VFR ceilings after 18z. Coastal
terminals, namely KISP/KBDR/KGON may take a bit longer to
improve into the afternoon. VFR expected for all terminals after
20Z.
Winds mainly E-ESE at 10 kt or less through Monday morning will
begin to turn more southerly behind the cold front then around
to the west-southwest in the afternoon.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Timing of category changes this evening/tonight may be +/- a
few hours.
Amendments likely for changing categories through the TAF
period.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday night: VFR.
Tuesday-Thursday: VFR with W flow.
Friday: VFR then MVFR with a chance of showers in the
afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.
Fog will continue to impact the waters into Mon. A dense fog
advisory remains in effect for the ocean until 15Z Mon.
Elsewhere, an advy may need to be issued if dense fog coverage
becomes extensive overnight. Otherwise, winds and seas blw sca
lvls thru Mon. Seas could hit sca lvls on the ocean Mon ngt with
a persistent WSW flow.
With a gusty westerly flow behind departing low pressure Tuesday
wind gusts and possibly seas may be near SCA levels across the ocean
waters east of Fire Island Inlet. As high pressure builds into the
waters gusts and seas will be diminishing through the day. On the
non ocean waters winds and seas will be below SCA levels Tuesday.
Then with high pressure over the area Wednesday, and moving offshore
Wednesday night, winds and seas across all the forecast waters will
remain below advisory levels Tuesday night into Friday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected this week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some of the most vulnerable locations may approach minor flood
levels on Mon, particularly the second high time cycle in the
aftn. With light wind fields however, confidence is too low to
issue a statement attm.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...12/MET
NEAR TERM...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...12/MET
HYDROLOGY...12/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...