000
FXUS61 KOKX 171147
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
747 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region today. An area of low
pressure will remain over eastern Canada and into the northeast
tonight into Tuesday. High pressure builds in for Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and moves offshore Wednesday night. A warm front slowly
approaches Thursday. Low pressure impacts the region Friday with a
cold front passing through the area Saturday. Low pressure remains
nearby Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track this morning. Fog and stratus will remain
across a good part of the forecast area this morning as a
maritime airmass remains over the area. An SPS remains up this
morning for all coastal areas as areas of fog is reducing
visibilities to less than 1 mile at times.
Precipitation associated with a a cold front west of the region
has started to move into the local area. These showers will
continue to gradually move towards the area, with the highest
POPs expected across NE NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. Best
chance of showers will be from this morning through about
16z-18z, then drier conditions start to work into the area for
the remainder of the afternoon/evening as the flow becomes more
S/SE. Some gusts to 20 mph will become likely by late afternoon.
Highs today for much of the area will remain in the 60s, however a
few spots in the NYC/NJ metro areas could touch 70. Further east,
across the forks of LI and eastern CT, temperatures may struggle to
reach 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure starts to build into the area tonight, however
an upper level trough remains over the area. Expect dry conditions,
however there could be some mid level clouds around. Winds will be
from the W/SW, and it could be breezy at times.
The upper level trough remains over the area for a good part of the
day, before finally lifting north late. The dry and breezy
conditions will continue, with gusts to near 25-30 mph especially
closer to the coast.
Temperature tonight will fall into the 40s, with highs on Tuesday in
the 50s. A few lower 60s will be possible in NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No real significant changes to the long term and stuck close to the
NBM during this period.
Heights begin to rise Tuesday night as the upper low weakens and
track north, and a more amplified ridge builds to the west, into the
Great Lakes region by Wednesday morning. Weak low level cold
advection ends toward Wednesday morning, and warm advection then
sets up during Wednesday as a warm front approaches Wednesday night.
Moisture will be limited with the front, and the best frontal
forcing and frontolysis remains to the north. There is some
uncertainty in the global guidance as to whether or not any
precipitation will occur with the frontal forcing Wednesday night
into Thursday, and leaning toward the NBM probabilities will keeping
the area dry. The warm front continues to look to remain to the
south of the region into Friday as the more amplified ridge slows
the eastward progression of the next system. Still bringing in
chances for precipitation late Friday and continue to mention a
slight chance of thunder inland with weak CAPE and surface based
instability. Also mentioned convection Saturday afternoon across the
region as the cold front approaches although CAPE and instability
will be more elevated. The front will be slow to move through the
region as the upper low remains well to the west, and precipitation
may be possible through Sunday with the potential for a wave to
develop Sunday along the offshore cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes across the area this morning. A trough moves
through this evening.
IFR or lower conditions are expected through this morning with
showers moving through ahead of the cold front through an hour
or so after daybreak. As winds increase behind the cold front
today anticipate some improvement in visibilities to VFR levels
after 15Z and VFR ceilings after 18Z. Coastal terminals
(KISP/KBDR/KGON) may take a bit longer to improve into this
afternoon. VFR expected for all terminals after 20Z.
Winds mainly E-ESE at less than 10 kt through early this
morning will begin to turn more SW behind the cold front then
around to the W in the evening as a trough moves through. Gusts
of 20 to around 25 kt are possible in the afternoon for most
terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories through this
morning. Certainty increases after the cold frontal passage
early this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday-Thursday: VFR with W flow.
Friday: VFR then MVFR with a chance of showers in the
afternoon.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Fog will continue to impact the waters this morning. A dense fog
advisory remains in effect for all waters until 15Z Mon. Otherwise,
winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria thru Mon. Seas could
come close to reaching criteria tonight with a persistent WSW flow,
however for now, will keep seas just below. Any SCA conditions
tonight looks to be marginal at best.
With a gusty westerly flow behind departing low pressure Tuesday
wind gusts should reach 25 ft at least on the near shore waters and
seas may reach 5 ft. Have gone with a SCA for Tuesday and Tuesday
evening for all waters, however thinking the majority of the 25 kt
winds will be right along the coastline where there will be better
mixing. Winds and seas fall Tuesday night, with high pressure over
the area Wednesday, and moving offshore Wednesday night, winds and
seas across all the forecast waters will remain below advisory
levels Tuesday night into Friday night. A strengthening southerly
flow out ahead of an approaching cold front may bring some gusts
close to or exceeding SCA criteria late in the day Saturday. Waves
build on Saturday on the ocean, and may approach 5 ft late in the
day Saturday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected this week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Some of the most vulnerable locations may approach minor flood
levels today, particularly the second high time cycle this
afternoon. It appears that most of the sites will remain just
below minor criteria, however one or two sites may just touch
the minor bench mark.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JP/MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...