000
FXUS61 KOKX 171758
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
158 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region today. An area of low
pressure will remain over eastern Canada and into the northeast
tonight into Tuesday. High pressure builds in for Tuesday night into
Wednesday, and moves offshore Wednesday night. A warm front slowly
approaches Thursday. Low pressure impacts the region Friday with a
cold front passing through the area Saturday. Low pressure remains
nearby Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak cold front is now over LI and CT, continuing to head east
with scattered showers ahead of the front mainly in CT.
Visibility has improved as well, but still perhaps isolated
spots of 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility over the next hour or two,
mainly within a couple of miles of the shores.
Drier conditions work into the area this afternoon/evening as
the flow becomes more SW. Some gusts to 20-25 mph will become
likely by late afternoon.
Highs today for much of the area will remain in the 60s, however a
few spots in the NYC/NJ metro areas could touch 70. Further east
across the forks of LI and eastern CT, temperatures probably
remain the 50s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure starts to build into the area tonight, however
an upper level trough remains over the area. Expect dry conditions,
however there could be some mid level clouds around. Winds will be
from the W/SW, and it could be breezy at times.
The upper level trough remains over the area for a good part of the
day, before finally lifting north late. The dry and breezy
conditions will continue, with gusts to near 25-30 mph especially
closer to the coast.
Temperature tonight will fall into the 40s, with highs on Tuesday in
the 50s. A few lower 60s will be possible in NJ.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No real significant changes to the long term and stuck close to the
NBM during this period.
Heights begin to rise Tuesday night as the upper low weakens and
track north, and a more amplified ridge builds to the west, into the
Great Lakes region by Wednesday morning. Weak low level cold
advection ends toward Wednesday morning, and warm advection then
sets up during Wednesday as a warm front approaches Wednesday night.
Moisture will be limited with the front, and the best frontal
forcing and frontolysis remains to the north. There is some
uncertainty in the global guidance as to whether or not any
precipitation will occur with the frontal forcing Wednesday night
into Thursday, and leaning toward the NBM probabilities will keeping
the area dry. The warm front continues to look to remain to the
south of the region into Friday as the more amplified ridge slows
the eastward progression of the next system. Still bringing in
chances for precipitation late Friday and continue to mention a
slight chance of thunder inland with weak CAPE and surface based
instability. Also mentioned convection Saturday afternoon across the
region as the cold front approaches although CAPE and instability
will be more elevated. The front will be slow to move through the
region as the upper low remains well to the west, and precipitation
may be possible through Sunday with the potential for a wave to
develop Sunday along the offshore cold front.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A cold front passes across the area, with a trough moving through
this evening, and another late Tuesday.
MVFR or IFR conds improve to VFR behind frontal passage this
afternoon. The front continues to advance east through the
region, with the wind shift making its way through the city
terminals already, and should move through KBDR, KISP, KGON over
the next couple of hours. Easterly winds ahead of front turn
WSW behind it, then around to the W in the evening as a trough
moves through. Gusts of 20 to around 25 kt are possible into
early evening for most terminals, and again Tue afternoon.
Clearing skies will lift cigs/vsbys thru 19 or 20z, with the
exception of KGON. A W/WSW flow then expected through the TAF
period. VFR expected for all terminals after 22z.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments likely for changing flight categories into early
afternoon.
Timing of improvement to VFR may be off by an hour or two.
Timing of gusts start/end may be off by a couple of hours.
Forecast confidence increases after the cold frontal passage early
this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tue-Wed: VFR. Westerly flow, gusts 20-25 kt in afternoon.
Thursday: VFR with southerly flow.
Friday: VFR. Light S/SE flow.
Saturday: MVFR or lower possible with chance of showers
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Fog will continue to impact the waters, and a dense fog
advisory continues on all waters through late afternoon except
NY Harbor and the ocean waters west of Fire Island Inlet.
Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria this
afternoon. Seas on the ocean could come close to reaching
criteria tonight with a persistent WSW flow, however for now,
will keep seas just below. Some gusts could reach 25 kt as well.
Any SCA conditions tonight looks to be marginal at best.
With a gusty westerly flow behind departing low pressure
Tuesday wind gusts should reach 25 ft at least on the near shore
waters and seas may reach 5 ft. Have gone with a SCA for
Tuesday and Tuesday evening for all waters, however thinking the
majority of the 25 kt winds will be right along the coastline
where there will be better mixing. Winds and seas fall Tuesday
night, with high pressure over the area Wednesday, and moving
offshore Wednesday night, winds and seas across all the forecast
waters will remain below advisory levels Tuesday night into
Friday night. A strengthening southerly flow out ahead of an
approaching cold front may bring some gusts close to or
exceeding SCA criteria late in the day Saturday. Waves build on
Saturday on the ocean, and may approach 5 ft late in the day
Saturday as well.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected this week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Based on observations from the most recent high tide cycle and
anticipated levels with a slightly higher astronomical tide for
the next high tide cycle, have issued a Coastal Flood Statement
for the south shore back bays of Nassau County for this
evening`s high tide cycle. A few sites should just touch or go
slightly over flooding benchmarks. The only other areas that
could come close would be the south shore of Queens, lower NY
Harbor, and the westernmost areas of LI Sound, however levels
are expected to remain just below flooding benchmarks.
Astronomical tides then lower for subsequent cycles, so no
flooding concerns after this evening.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331-
332-335-340-345-350-353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/JC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JP/MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BC/JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...