000
FXUS61 KOKX 191134
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
734 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will move southeast into the Western
Atlantic tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, a warm front will approach
from the west as its associated low pressure system moves into the
Great Lakes region. This warm front will move north of the area on
Thursday night into Friday. A strong cold front and wave of
low pressure will approach Saturday night into Sunday. High
pressure builds in early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast generally on track with just some minor adjustments
made to reflect current conditions. Did increase cloud cover a
bit, mainly north and west of NYC. Otherwise, an upper level
trough over the region will gradually shift eastward today. This
will allow upper level ridging to take place late in the
afternoon and tonight. At the surface, just south of the area
today will gradually shift offshore out into the Western
Atlantic this evening and overnight. With less clouds expected
today, and heights aloft starting to rise by mid to late
afternoon, temperatures today should top off in the upper 50 and
lower 60s. It will once again be a breezy day, with gusts into
the 20 mph range.
Tonight, with the high building a bit more offshore and upper level
ridging takes place, the pressure gradient will relax a bit. This
will allow winds to diminish and the gusts to come to an end. By
midnight, winds should become light and variable in most locations.
Lows will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Clouds are expected
to increase late tonight into early Thursday morning as a warm front
approaches from the north and west.
A weak mid level shortwave riding along the eastern side of the
ridge, could result in a isolated shower. Chance are too low to keep
in the forecast at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging continues on Thursday, with a much warmer day
expected as highs climb into the upper 60s and lower to middle 70s.
Closer to the coast, it will remain cooler with highs only in the
60s, with more of a marine influence in place. The day should start
off mostly cloudy, and become mostly sunny by afternoon.
The warm front then lift north of the region Thursday night, setting
up another warm day on Friday, as temperatures climb into the upper
70s and lower 80s across the interior. Closer to the coast, once
again, the marine influence should keep temperature cooler, with
highs only in the 60s and lower 70s. Conditions will remain dry
though the short term.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The warm front will become nearly stationary Friday night. With
onshore flow bringing in a moist air mass with dew points rising
into the 40s and 50s, there may be enough lift with the front for
some showers. Looking at some forecast sounding, precipitation may
be in the form of drizzle, so added a slight chance for showers or
patchy drizzle for Friday night.
Upper level riding late Friday night pushes east on Saturday,
allowing for height falls. Veering profile in forecast soundings
will mean warm advection continues, and highs will continue to be
above normal, ranging from the middle to upper 70s away from the
coast. Cooler conditions along the coast are expected thanks to
onshore flow. Any drizzle and fog should end by daybreak, though
they could linger for eastern areas into Saturday morning. However,
much of the morning on Saturday should be dry, with the associated
cold front remaining to the west. POPs increase during the afternoon
for western areas as showers move in ahead of the front.
A rainy/windy and cooler period likely from Sat
night into Sunday as a closed low to the west becomes negatively
tilted and potent leading shortwave energy approaches. A long SE-S
fetch and lack of a strong sfc-based inversion likely to result in
winds approaching or exceeding advisory criteria late Sat night into
Sunday, especially along the coast. A narrow corridor of strong
Atlantic moisture transport ahead of the front via a strong LLJ, as
well as enhanced lift ahead of a wave of low pressure along the
approaching front, also likely to result in pds of moderate to heavy
rain and some rumbles of thunder from late Sat night into Sunday
night.
The aforementioned closed low to the west will become the western
leg of a large omega block over eastern North American and the
western Atlantic, so expectations are that showers may linger into
Monday. High pressure builds in at the surface for Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure remains nearby through the TAF period with VFR
conditions.
W winds increase this morning 10 to 20 kt, with gusts starting
12Z-14Z today at 20-25 kt. Occasional gusts of 25 to 30 kt are
possible. Winds diminish 21Z-23Z and become light out of the
NW, then shift to the NE tonight. Winds may even become light
and variable tonight, especially for the terminals outside the
metro area.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
No unscheduled amendments expected.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: VFR. SE-S winds, 10 kt or less.
Friday: VFR. SE winds.
Saturday: VFR in AM, MVFR develops towards evening with showers
arriving.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the area waters
today as gusts will reach 25 kt today. Tonight, winds diminish,
starting off a period of sub-SCA conditions on the waters
through Friday.
SCA cond likely to develop on all waters late Saturday into Saturday
night ahead of an approaching strong cold front and wave of low
pressure. SE-S gales may be possible especially on the ocean and the
adjacent lower harbor/bay waters from late Sat night into
Sunday.
Winds diminish from west to east late Sunday into Sunday night as
waves on the ocean remain above SCA criteria.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for NJ as the combination of
dry conditions, low humidity, and gusty winds will result in
favorable conditions for the rapid spread of fires this
afternoon. RH values will drop to 20-30 percent and wind gusts
will reach 20 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend. A frontal
system could bring a 1-2 inch rainfall from Sat night into Sunday
night, with nuisance impacts the most likely outcome due to
antecedent dry conditions.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/JP
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP