000
FXUS61 KOKX 191449
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1049 AM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure over the area will move southeast into the
Western Atlantic tonight and Thursday. Meanwhile, a warm front
will approach from the west as its associated low pressure
system moves into the Great Lakes region. This warm front will
move north of the area on Thursday night into Friday. A strong
cold front and wave of low pressure will approach Saturday night
into Sunday. High pressure builds in early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Strato cu remains across much of the area in association with
the upper trough that will be moving to the western Atlantic
this afternoon as riding increases to the west and southwest.
The cloud deck has been slowly dissipating with daytime heating,
however low level moisture remains until later this afternoon.
Updated cloud cover through this afternoon, along with
temperatures and dew points.
An upper level trough over the region will gradually shift
eastward today. This will allow upper level ridging to take
place late in the afternoon and tonight. At the surface, just
south of the area today will gradually shift offshore out into
the Western Atlantic this evening and overnight. With less
clouds expected today, and heights aloft starting to rise by mid
to late afternoon, temperatures today should top off in the
upper 50 and lower 60s. It will once again be a breezy day, with
gusts into the 20 mph range.
Tonight, with the high building a bit more offshore and upper level
ridging takes place, the pressure gradient will relax a bit. This
will allow winds to diminish and the gusts to come to an end. By
midnight, winds should become light and variable in most locations.
Lows will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Clouds are expected
to increase late tonight into early Thursday morning as a warm front
approaches from the north and west.
A weak mid level shortwave riding along the eastern side of the
ridge, could result in a isolated shower. Chance are too low to
keep in the forecast at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upper level ridging continues on Thursday, with a much warmer
day expected as highs climb into the upper 60s and lower to
middle 70s. Closer to the coast, it will remain cooler with
highs only in the 60s, with more of a marine influence in place.
The day should start off mostly cloudy, and become mostly sunny
by afternoon.
The warm front then lift north of the region Thursday night,
setting up another warm day on Friday, as temperatures climb
into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the interior. Closer to
the coast, once again, the marine influence should keep
temperature cooler, with highs only in the 60s and lower 70s.
Conditions will remain dry though the short term.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The warm front will become nearly stationary Friday night. With
onshore flow bringing in a moist air mass with dew points rising
into the 40s and 50s, there may be enough lift with the front for
some showers. Looking at some forecast sounding, precipitation may
be in the form of drizzle, so added a slight chance for showers or
patchy drizzle for Friday night.
Upper level riding late Friday night pushes east on Saturday,
allowing for height falls. Veering profile in forecast soundings
will mean warm advection continues, and highs will continue to be
above normal, ranging from the middle to upper 70s away from the
coast. Cooler conditions along the coast are expected thanks to
onshore flow. Any drizzle and fog should end by daybreak, though
they could linger for eastern areas into Saturday morning. However,
much of the morning on Saturday should be dry, with the associated
cold front remaining to the west. POPs increase during the afternoon
for western areas as showers move in ahead of the front.
A rainy/windy and cooler period likely from Sat night into
Sunday as a closed low to the west becomes negatively tilted and
potent leading shortwave energy approaches. A long SE-S fetch
and lack of a strong sfc-based inversion likely to result in
winds approaching or exceeding advisory criteria late Sat night
into Sunday, especially along the coast. A narrow corridor of
strong Atlantic moisture transport ahead of the front via a
strong LLJ, as well as enhanced lift ahead of a wave of low
pressure along the approaching front, also likely to result in
pds of moderate to heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder from
late Sat night into Sunday night.
The aforementioned closed low to the west will become the
western leg of a large omega block over eastern North American
and the western Atlantic, so expectations are that showers may
linger into Monday. High pressure builds in at the surface for
Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A surface trough develops across the area today, then weakens
as high pressure builds in from the NW tonight.
VFR.
W winds increase by early afternoon to around 15kt, with gusts
20-25 kt. Winds diminish 21Z-23Z and become light out of the
NW, then shift to the NE tonight. Winds may even become light
and variable overnight, especially for the terminals outside
the metro area.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may vary between 270-290 this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday and Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR in AM, MVFR develops towards evening with showers
arriving.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and gusts were increased, mainly over the ocean waters,
to account for current conditions.
A Small Craft Advisory remain in effect for all the area waters
today as gusts will reach 25 kt today. Tonight, winds diminish,
starting off a period of sub-SCA conditions on the waters
through Friday.
SCA cond likely to develop on all waters late Saturday into Saturday
night ahead of an approaching strong cold front and wave of low
pressure. SE-S gales may be possible especially on the ocean and the
adjacent lower harbor/bay waters from late Sat night into
Sunday.
Winds diminish from west to east late Sunday into Sunday night as
waves on the ocean remain above SCA criteria.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for NJ as the combination of
dry conditions, low humidity, and gusty winds will result in
favorable conditions for the rapid spread of fires this
afternoon. RH values will drop to 20-30 percent and wind gusts
will reach 20 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend. A frontal
system could bring a 1-2 inch rainfall from Sat night into Sunday
night, with nuisance impacts the most likely outcome due to
antecedent dry conditions.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP/DW
MARINE...BC/JP/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP