000
FXUS61 KOKX 191759
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
159 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
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A weak surface trough will remain across the area this
afternoon, then weakens early this evening as high pressure
builds in from the northwest. The high builds offshore on
Thursday. Meanwhile, a warm front will approach from the west as
its associated low pressure system moves into the Great Lakes
region. This warm front will move north of the area on Thursday
night into Friday. A strong cold front and wave of low pressure
will approach Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds
in early next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Strato cu was slowly eroding across the southern and
southwestern areas as the upper trough moves into the western
Atlantic, and ridging increases to the west and southwest.
Updated for current conditions.
An upper level trough gradually shifts eastward into the western
Atlantic this afternoon. This will allow upper level ridging to
take place late in the afternoon and tonight. At the surface,
high pressure just south and west of the area will gradually
shift offshore out into the Western Atlantic this evening and
overnight.
Tonight, with the high building a bit more offshore and upper level
ridging takes place, the pressure gradient will relax a bit. This
will allow winds to diminish and the gusts to come to an end. By
midnight, winds should become light and variable in most locations.
Lows will range from the upper 30s to upper 40s. Clouds are expected
to increase late tonight into early Thursday morning as a warm front
approaches from the north and west.
A weak mid level shortwave riding along the eastern side of the
ridge, could result in a isolated shower. Chance are too low to
keep in the forecast at this time.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level ridging continues on Thursday, with a much warmer
day expected as highs climb into the upper 60s and lower to
middle 70s. Closer to the coast, it will remain cooler with
highs only in the 60s, with more of a marine influence in place.
The day should start off mostly cloudy, and become mostly sunny
by afternoon.
The warm front then lift north of the region Thursday night,
setting up another warm day on Friday, as temperatures climb
into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the interior. Closer to
the coast, once again, the marine influence should keep
temperature cooler, with highs only in the 60s and lower 70s.
Conditions will remain dry though the short term.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The warm front will become nearly stationary Friday night. With
onshore flow bringing in a moist air mass with dew points rising
into the 40s and 50s, there may be enough lift with the front for
some showers. Looking at some forecast sounding, precipitation may
be in the form of drizzle, so added a slight chance for showers or
patchy drizzle for Friday night.
Upper level riding late Friday night pushes east on Saturday,
allowing for height falls. Veering profile in forecast soundings
will mean warm advection continues, and highs will continue to be
above normal, ranging from the middle to upper 70s away from the
coast. Cooler conditions along the coast are expected thanks to
onshore flow. Any drizzle and fog should end by daybreak, though
they could linger for eastern areas into Saturday morning. However,
much of the morning on Saturday should be dry, with the associated
cold front remaining to the west. POPs increase during the afternoon
for western areas as showers move in ahead of the front.
A rainy/windy and cooler period likely from Sat night into
Sunday as a closed low to the west becomes negatively tilted and
potent leading shortwave energy approaches. A long SE-S fetch
and lack of a strong sfc-based inversion likely to result in
winds approaching or exceeding advisory criteria late Sat night
into Sunday, especially along the coast. A narrow corridor of
strong Atlantic moisture transport ahead of the front via a
strong LLJ, as well as enhanced lift ahead of a wave of low
pressure along the approaching front, also likely to result in
pds of moderate to heavy rain and some rumbles of thunder from
late Sat night into Sunday night.
The aforementioned closed low to the west will become the
western leg of a large omega block over eastern North American
and the western Atlantic, so expectations are that showers may
linger into Monday. High pressure builds in at the surface for
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A weak surface trough will remain across the area this
afternoon, then weakens early this evening as high pressure
builds in from the NW. The high builds offshore on Thursday.
VFR.
WNW winds around 15kt with gusts 20-25 kt will continue this
afternoon. Winds will diminish by early this evening and become
light out of the NW, then gradually veer to the NE tonight.
Many locations will simply become light and variable overnight,
especially for the terminals outside the metro area. A light
southerly flow develops Thursday afternoon with local seabreeze
enhancements.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may vary between 280-310 this afternoon.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon-Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR in AM, MVFR or lower develops towards evening
with showers arriving.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in showers in the morning, then
VFR in the afternoon.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Gusts over the open waters were under 25 kt, however, nearshore
gusts were occasionally reaching 25 kt. Cancelled the small
craft advisory for the remainder of the afternoon, and will
mention the nearshore gusts in the forecast.
Tonight, winds diminish, starting off a period of sub-SCA
conditions on the waters through Friday.
SCA cond likely to develop on all waters late Saturday into Saturday
night ahead of an approaching strong cold front and wave of low
pressure. SE-S gales may be possible especially on the ocean and the
adjacent lower harbor/bay waters from late Sat night into
Sunday.
Winds diminish from west to east late Sunday into Sunday night as
waves on the ocean remain above SCA criteria.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for NJ as the combination of
dry conditions, low humidity, and gusty winds will result in
favorable conditions for the rapid spread of fires this
afternoon. RH values will drop to 20-30 percent and wind gusts
will reach 20 mph.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend. A frontal
system could bring a 1-2 inch rainfall from Sat night into Sunday
night, with nuisance impacts the most likely outcome due to
antecedent dry conditions.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/MET
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BC/JP/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP