000
FXUS61 KOKX 191957
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak surface trough weakens early this evening as high
pressure builds in from the northwest. The high builds offshore
on Thursday. Meanwhile, a warm front will approach from the
southwest as its associated low pressure system moves into the
western Great Lakes region. This warm front will move north of
the area Thursday night into Friday. A cold front with a wave of
low pressure approaches on Saturday, moving through Saturday
night into early Sunday. High pressure builds in early next
week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper closed low and negatively tilted trough continues to
move to the northeast of the region as an upper ridge builds
into the eastern Great Lakes into the central Appalachians. A
weak surface trough dissipates this evening as surface high
builds in from the northwest. With nearly clear skies and winds
becoming light ideal radiation cooling is expected. Mid and high
clouds do increase a little late tonight across the interior
as weak warm frontal forcing sets up. There will be a wide
range of temperatures across the region with the coldest
temperatures across the interior, and the warmest in the urban
NYC area. The Long Island Pine Barrens may see overnight lows
near freezing.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A high amplitude ridge builds toward the area Thursday into
Thursday night, then across the region Friday, with the ridge
axis moving to the east late in the day. At the surface high
pressure moves offshore during Thursday as low and mid level
warm advection increase. A warm front approaches during the day
and likely lifts north late Thursday night into early Friday.
The area will then be warm sectored Friday as 850mb temperatures
rise to 12C to 14C. Mainly used the MOS GFS guidance for
temperatures Thursday, and the a blend of the 50th to 75th NBM
percentiles for Friday as temperatures will be well above
normal, especially inland, away from the southerly marine
influence coastal locations, as deep mixing develops by the
afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Heights fall to start the period with the exit of an upper
ridge and the entrance of a closed low trough swinging into the
Upper Great Lakes.
At the surface, the warm front that lifted through on Friday
lingers near or just north of the region Friday night into
Saturday. BUFKIT soundings indicate the increased low-level
moisture from the onshore flow may be sufficient to instigate
some spotty light rain showers or drizzle overnight into
Saturday morning under a canopy of low stratus. Any drizzle and
fog should end by daybreak, though they could linger for eastern
areas into Saturday morning.
Despite the gradually lowering cloud deck, the bulk of Saturday
appears dry as an attendant cold front and developing frontal
wave approach late in the day. Ahead of this, temperatures climb
from the 50s into the low-to-mid 70s away from the coast, and
about 10 degrees cooler for coastal areas with the maritime
influence (water temps remain in the 40s and lower 50s).
Guidance has trended faster with the frontal passage, with 12z
runs of global models moving the boundary through from west to
east late Saturday into early Sunday. A narrow corridor of
Atlantic moisture transport ahead of the front via increasing
LLJ, as well as enhanced lift ahead of a wave of low pressure
along the approaching front, results in a band of showers, and
possibly a few embedded thunderstorms, moving through the area
late Saturday evening and night. With the LLJ strengthening to
around 40 to 50 kt just ahead of the front, this will allow
increasing SE flow at the surface, with a few gusts likely in
the 30 to 40 mph range Saturday night, especially with any
convection ahead of the front. Given a fairly progressive flow,
the rain moves through and exits by Sunday morning. Total
rainfall largely remains under an inch, with a quarter to three
quarters of inch expected.
Winds lighten and veer westerly behind the front, with drying
conditions Sunday and Monday as the trough continues to advance
east over the region. The cyclonic flow likely aids development
of some daytime cloud cover as surface high pressure builds in
from the Mid- South. Temperatures next week will be a bit cooler
behind the front, highs mostly in the 60s into midweek.
With the quicker frontal passage, used a 3:1 combination of
ConsALL and NBM for winds Saturday into Sunday. Otherwise,
national blended guidance was largely followed.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak surface trough across the area weakens early this
evening as high pressure builds in from the NW. The high builds
offshore on Thursday.
VFR.
WNW winds around 10-15kt with gusts around 20 kt will diminish
by early this evening and become light out of the NW, then
gradually veer to the NE tonight. Many locations will simply
become light and variable overnight, especially for the
terminals outside the metro area. A light southerly flow
develops Thursday afternoon with local seabreeze enhancements.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Winds may vary between 280-310 through early this evening.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday Afternoon-Friday: VFR.
Saturday: VFR in AM, MVFR or lower develops towards evening
with showers arriving.
Sunday: MVFR or lower possible in showers in the morning, then
VFR in the afternoon.
Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
With high pressure building into the waters tonight and moving
offshore Thursday, and a warm front moving through Thursday
night into Friday, winds and seas across the forecast waters
will remain below advisory levels tonight through Friday.
SCA cond likely develop on all waters late Saturday into
Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front and wave of
low pressure. Isolated SE-S gales may be possible especially on
the ocean and the adjacent lower harbor/bay waters late Sat
night.
Winds diminish from west to east Sunday morning, returning to
sub- SCA cond on sheltered waters. Seas lower under 5 ft on the
ocean by Sunday night.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for NJ as the combination
of dry conditions, low humidity, and gusty winds will result in
favorable conditions for the rapid spread of fires into early
this evening.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts through Saturday.
A frontal system may bring up to an inch of rainfall late
Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, with brief nuisance
flooding possible in urban and poor drainage areas. Given
antecedent dry conditions, no significant hydrologic impacts
expected through mid next week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR/MET
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET