000
FXUS61 KOKX 221151
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will work slowly north and stall tonight, stalling
near or just south of the area today. A cold front along with
a frontal wave will then move across the area Saturday night
into Sunday morning. A weak secondary cold front will pass
through Sunday night, with high pressure to the west slow to
build in thereafter through mid week as weak low pressure
lingers along the New England coast. Another low pressure system
may impact the area toward the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An E-NE flow continues ahead of a warm front over southern NJ,
with low clouds and patchy fog. The front will slowly advance
Low clouds and patchy fog continue over the area early this
morning. Indications are that the fog should burn off this
morning and that partial sunshine should return to area from NYC
west this afternoon. This will allow temps to rise to the upper
60s and lower 70s mainly west of the Hudson. Warmer air S of the
warm front may make it to the doorstep of urban NE NJ but
should fail to enter the area. Farther east, clouds will hold
max temps to the lower/mid 60s.
Most precip with the advancing front should arrive tonight. A
few orographically forced light showers may still be possible
mainly inland this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front advancing from the west will bring bands of showers
and possibly some tstms tonight. Capped thunder probs at slight
chance prob/isold coverage for most of the area for this
evening except NE NJ, with chance prob/sct coverage closer to
the warm front. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook brings only a
marginal severe risk to the western edge of the CWA, and this
appears reasonable given onshore flow and the warm front to the
south halting just to the SW. No enhanced tstm wording used in
the grids yet, but couldn`t rule out a weakening band of showers
and embedded gusty tstms just barely making it into western
areas not too long after dark.
Showers expected for the entire region tonight, and could be
locally heavy especially across SW CT and parts of the lower
Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Fog may return tonight
ahead of these showers and could become locally dense,
especially along the coast and in the higher elevations.
Have sided with a slower progression of the approaching front
overall, meaning that likely/cat PoP should prevail into Sunday
morning for most of the area, and into the afternoon for SE CT
and the forks of Long Island, where rain could also be heavy at
times in the morning. Temps on Sunday should be similar to
those fcst for Sat.
A potent mid level shortwave trough pivoting through the area
around an upper low to the west Sunday night should help push a
cold front through, with chance of showers mainly for the
interior. Another shortwave trough pivoting through should bring
another round of showers on Monday, mainly in the afternoon and
across the interior. Cooler conds expected as well, with mid
50s for highs well inland, upper 50s most elsewhere, and lower
60s only in/around NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large upper level trough with a weakening surface low lingers over
the area through much of the beginning of the week. This will likely
result in continued chances of precipitation, generally in the form
of rain showers, Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.
The upper level trough flattens out as high pressure moves into
the area from the southwest late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
This should result in fairly dry conditions for the middle of
the week. Beyond this, models diverge in how they handle the
following system, but a potential coastal low develops south of
the area and approaches sometime in the Thursday to Friday
timeframe which may result in some rain. Kept PoPs at slight
chance/chance for now to indicate uncertainty in timing and
strength of the system.
Temperatures will be generally seasonable for late April through
the long term forecast. Highs each day will be in the upper
50s to mid 60s, with lows generally in the 40s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front south of the terminals moves slowly northward and
into the NYC metro terminals mid to late afternoon, and then
stalls. A wave of low pressure moves across the area tonight and
into early Sunday morning.
E winds around 10 kt become SE this morning, with gusts, up to
25kt, developing around midday and into the afternoon. Early
gusts may be more occasional before becoming frequent late
afternoon and into Saturday evening. As low pressure moves into
the region winds become light and variable late tonight, and
then become westerly 10kt or less. LLWS likely 00Z to around
05Z, and as late as 12Z at KGON.
Conditions remains mainly IFR, with areas of LIFR possible this
morning. Timing of improvement to VFR, and how long VFR lasts,
is uncertain, and there is a chance that ceilings east of the
NYC metros remains at MVFR through the day, especially at KGON.
Conditions lower back to IFR and LIFR with showers this evening,
an isolated thunderstorm is possible, but with low confidence
and isolated, not included at this time. Conditions begin to
improve at the western terminals toward 12Z Sunday with a cold
front passage.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments for timing of flight category changes IFR to
possibly LIFR early this morning, with improvement to VFR
expected for several hours, 16Z to 21Z, although not confident
on how long VFR will last. Return of MVFR ceilings late
afternoon may be earlier than forecast with a chance of showers,
then lowering to IFR by 00Z Sunday. An isolated thunderstorm
will be possible 22Z to 02Z, and mainly at KEWR and KTEB.
LLWS, 15045kt, from 00Z to 05Z may continue an hour or two
later.
The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR haze potential forecast is
YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: MVFR to IFR with showers early, improving to VFR around
14Z at the NYC metros, remaining IFR to MVFR to the east until
midday, then improving to VFR.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR. W-NW winds G15-20 kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
For today, there is the possibility of locally dense fog
impacting mainly the ocean water and Long Island south shore
bays. Since fog overnight has been patchy at best have held off
on issuing an advisory.
SCA conditions are possible late today and tonight ahead of an
approaching cold front and wave of low pressure. Seas look to
come up to around 5 ft on the ocean waters, with gusts
approaching 25 kt.
Ocean seas elevated to near 5 feet should continue into day time
Sunday and possibly Sunday night.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend. A frontal
system could bring 0.75" to 1.25" rainfall from Sat night into
Sunday morning, with locally higher amounts of around 1.50"
possible across parts of S CT. Nuisance impacts are the most
likely outcome due to antecedent dry conditions.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding may be possible with tonight`s high tide
cycle tonight along the south shore bays of Nassau County. A
statement or advy will be issued to address this.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
335.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT
Sunday night for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET/MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...