000
FXUS61 KOKX 221450
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1050 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front will meander near or over parts of the area today
before a cold front along and frontal wave move across the
region tonight into Sunday morning. A weak secondary cold front
will pass through Sunday night, with high pressure to the west
slow to build in thereafter through mid week as weak low
pressure lingers along the New England coast. Another low
pressure system may impact the area toward the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Visibilities and ceilings have climbed relatively quickly as
the fog and low stratus burns off this morning. A warm front
draped across central New Jersey meanders nearby through this
afternoon, while an attendant cold front over west-central
Pennsylvania advances east. West of the Hudson River or so,
temperatures should be able to rise into the low-to-mid 70s
under a mix of sun and clouds. East of this though, the SE flow
off the waters will keep the clouds and cooler conditions in
place much of the day, with low-to-mid 60s as highs.
A few orographically forced light showers may be possible mainly
inland this afternoon, otherwise the region remains dry until
later this evening just ahead of the advancing cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front advancing from the west will bring bands of showers
and possibly some tstms tonight. Capped thunder probs at slight
chance prob/isold coverage for most of the area for this
evening except NE NJ, with chance prob/sct coverage closer to
the warm front. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook brings only a
marginal severe risk to the western edge of the CWA, and this
appears reasonable given onshore flow and the warm front to the
south halting just to the SW. No enhanced tstm wording used in
the grids yet, but couldn`t rule out a weakening band of showers
and embedded gusty tstms just barely making it into western
areas not too long after dark.
Showers expected for the entire region tonight, and could be
locally heavy especially across SW CT and parts of the lower
Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Fog may return tonight
ahead of these showers and could become locally dense,
especially along the coast and in the higher elevations.
Have sided with a slower progression of the approaching front
overall, meaning that likely/cat PoP should prevail into Sunday
morning for most of the area, and into the afternoon for SE CT
and the forks of Long Island, where rain could also be heavy at
times in the morning. Temps on Sunday should be similar to
those fcst for Sat.
A potent mid level shortwave trough pivoting through the area
around an upper low to the west Sunday night should help push a
cold front through, with chance of showers mainly for the
interior. Another shortwave trough pivoting through should bring
another round of showers on Monday, mainly in the afternoon and
across the interior. Cooler conds expected as well, with mid
50s for highs well inland, upper 50s most elsewhere, and lower
60s only in/around NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large upper level trough with a weakening surface low lingers over
the area through much of the beginning of the week. This will likely
result in continued chances of precipitation, generally in the form
of rain showers, Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.
The upper level trough flattens out as high pressure moves into
the area from the southwest late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
This should result in fairly dry conditions for the middle of
the week. Beyond this, models diverge in how they handle the
following system, but a potential coastal low develops south of
the area and approaches sometime in the Thursday to Friday
timeframe which may result in some rain. Kept PoPs at slight
chance/chance for now to indicate uncertainty in timing and
strength of the system.
Temperatures will be generally seasonable for late April through
the long term forecast. Highs each day will be in the upper
50s to mid 60s, with lows generally in the 40s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A warm front is pushing north and was located across central NJ
as of about 14Z. A wave of low pressure then moves across the
area tonight and into early Sunday morning.
Cigs have begun to improve across the southern terminals to VFR
(KEWR/KJFK as of 14Z). Elsewhere, cigs remain mainly IFR and
there should be some slow improvement as the warm front
continues north. There remains a chance that ceilings east and
north of the NYC metros remain at MVFR through the day,
especially at KGON/KSWF. Conditions then lower back to IFR and
LIFR with showers this evening, an isolated thunderstorm is
possible, but with low confidence and isolated coverage, not
included at this time. Conditions begin to improve at the
western terminals toward 12Z Sunday with a cold front passage.
E winds around 10 kt become SE with increasing gusts, up to
25kt, developing around midday and into the afternoon. Early
gusts may be more occasional before becoming frequent late
afternoon and into Saturday evening. As low pressure moves into
the region winds become light and variable late tonight, and
then become westerly 10kt or less. LLWS likely 00Z to around
05Z, and as late as 12Z at KGON.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments for timing of flight category changes to VFR
expected for several hours through midday, and then again late
afternoon as ceilings then lower to IFR by 00Z Sunday. An
isolated thunderstorm will be possible 22Z to 02Z, and mainly at
KEWR and KTEB.
LLWS, 15045kt, from 00Z to 05Z may continue an hour or two
later.
The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR haze potential forecast is
YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
Sunday: MVFR to IFR with showers early, improving to VFR around
14Z at the NYC metros, remaining IFR to MVFR to the east until
midday, then improving to VFR.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR. W-NW winds G15-20 kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
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Areas of patchy fog may persist into late morning before
improvement. A few gusts on the LI Sound and the ocean waters
east of Moriches Inlet may exceed 25 kt today, expanding to
remaining ocean waters this evening ahead of an approaching
cold front and wave of low pressure. Seas come up to around 5
ft on the ocean waters during this time.
Winds subside behind the frontal passage overnight, but ocean
seas remain elevated near 5 feet into the daytime Sunday and
possibly Sunday night.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through the
middle of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend. A frontal
system could bring 0.75" to 1.25" rainfall tonight into Sunday
morning, with locally higher amounts of up to 1.50" possible
across parts of S CT. Nuisance flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas is the most likely outcome due to antecedent dry
conditions.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding may be possible with tonight`s high tide
cycle tonight along the south shore bays of Nassau County. A
statement or advy will be issued to address this.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Sunday for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
335.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT
Sunday night for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ355.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET/MW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...