000
FXUS61 KOKX 221749
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
149 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front will meander near or over parts of the area today
before a cold front and frontal wave move across the region
tonight into Sunday. Another cold front passes through Sunday
night, with high pressure to the west slow to build in
thereafter through mid week as weak low pressure lingers along
the New England coast. Another low pressure system may impact
the area toward the end of the week.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front remains draped near or just south and east of the
region across north-central New Jersey as of 1730z. A bit
north of this boundary, visible satellite and surface obs
indicate the stratus deck has managed to hang on across southern
Connecticut.
The front meanders northward into this evening as an attendant
cold front over west-central Pennsylvania advances east. Already
seeing convection develop ahead of this front in Central PA,
and this activity will work its way east, likely weakening as it
approaches the coast later this evening.
West of the Hudson River or so, temperatures should be able to
approach 70 or so under the mix of sun and clouds. East of this
though, the cloud covers and SE flow off the waters will keep
cooler conditions in place much of the day, with upper 50s and
lower 60s as highs.
A few orographically forced light showers may be possible mainly
inland late this afternoon, otherwise the region remains dry
until this evening just ahead of the advancing cold front.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front advancing from the west will bring bands of showers
and possibly some tstms tonight. Capped thunder probs at slight
chance prob/isold coverage for most of the area for this
evening except NE NJ, with chance prob/sct coverage closer to
the warm front. SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook brings only a
marginal severe risk to the western edge of the CWA, and this
appears reasonable given onshore flow and the warm front to the
south halting just to the SW. No enhanced tstm wording used in
the grids yet, but couldn`t rule out a weakening band of showers
and embedded gusty tstms just barely making it into western
areas not too long after dark.
Showers expected for the entire region tonight, and could be
locally heavy especially across SW CT and parts of the lower
Hudson Valley mainly after midnight. Fog may return tonight
ahead of these showers and could become locally dense,
especially along the coast and in the higher elevations.
Have sided with a slower progression of the approaching front
overall, meaning that likely/cat PoP should prevail into Sunday
morning for most of the area, and into the afternoon for SE CT
and the forks of Long Island, where rain could also be heavy at
times in the morning. Temps on Sunday should be similar to
those fcst for Sat.
A potent mid level shortwave trough pivoting through the area
around an upper low to the west Sunday night should help push a
cold front through, with chance of showers mainly for the
interior. Another shortwave trough pivoting through should bring
another round of showers on Monday, mainly in the afternoon and
across the interior. Cooler conds expected as well, with mid
50s for highs well inland, upper 50s most elsewhere, and lower
60s only in/around NYC.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large upper level trough with a weakening surface low lingers over
the area through much of the beginning of the week. This will likely
result in continued chances of precipitation, generally in the form
of rain showers, Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.
The upper level trough flattens out as high pressure moves into
the area from the southwest late Tuesday and into Wednesday.
This should result in fairly dry conditions for the middle of
the week. Beyond this, models diverge in how they handle the
following system, but a potential coastal low develops south of
the area and approaches sometime in the Thursday to Friday
timeframe which may result in some rain. Kept PoPs at slight
chance/chance for now to indicate uncertainty in timing and
strength of the system.
Temperatures will be generally seasonable for late April through
the long term forecast. Highs each day will be in the upper
50s to mid 60s, with lows generally in the 40s each night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A warm front is pushing north and was located south of the NYC
terminals at 17Z. A wave of low pressure then moves across the
area tonight and into early Sunday morning.
Cigs have improved to VFR or MVFR at all terminals. As the
afternoon progresses, conditions then lower back to IFR and
LIFR with showers this evening. A thunderstorm is possible, but
with low confidence and isolated coverage north and west of NYC,
have kept it out of the TAFs except at EWR and TEB from 01-04Z. Conditions
begin to improve at the western terminals toward 12Z Sunday
with a cold front passage and at the coastal terminals after 15Z.
E winds around 10 kt become SE with increasing gusts, up to
25kt, continuing through the afternoon. Gusts will subside by
early evening. As low pressure moves into the region winds
become light and variable late tonight, and then become westerly
10kt or less. LLWS likely 00Z to around 05Z, and as late as 12Z
at KGON.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Amendments for timing of flight category changes to IFR by 00Z
Sunday are possible. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible
00Z to 05Z Sunday, and mainly at KEWR and KTEB.
LLWS, 15045kt, from 00Z to 05Z may continue an hour or two
later.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
Sunday: MVFR to IFR with showers early, improving to VFR around
15Z at the NYC metros, remaining IFR to MVFR to the east until
midday, then improving to VFR.
Monday and Tuesday: VFR. W-NW winds G15-20 kt.
Wednesday: VFR.
Thursday: MVFR or lower in showers.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Areas of patchy fog may persist into late morning before
improvement. A few gusts on the LI Sound and the ocean waters
east of Moriches Inlet may exceed 25 kt today, expanding to
remaining ocean waters this evening ahead of an approaching
cold front and wave of low pressure. Seas come up to around 5
ft on the ocean waters during this time.
Winds subside behind the frontal passage overnight, but ocean
seas remain elevated near 5 feet into the daytime Sunday and
possibly Sunday night.
Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters through the
middle of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the weekend. A frontal
system could bring 0.75" to 1.25" rainfall tonight into Sunday
morning, with locally higher amounts of up to 1.50" possible
across parts of S CT. Nuisance flooding of urban and poor
drainage areas is the most likely outcome due to antecedent dry
conditions.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding may be possible with tonight`s high tide
cycle tonight along the south shore bays of Nassau County. A
statement or advy will be issued to address this.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
Sunday for NYZ179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
335.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ332.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Sunday night for
ANZ350.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT
Sunday night for ANZ353.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Sunday
for ANZ355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MW
NEAR TERM...BG/DR
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET/MW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...BG/MW
HYDROLOGY...BG/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...