000
FXUS61 KOKX 241137
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build toward the area into Wednesday,
while a series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A
weak low pressure trough will then move across Wednesday night
into Thursday. High pressure returns briefly Thursday night.
Deepening low pressure passes to the south Friday into Saturday
night. Another low deepening low to the west impacts the region
Sunday into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track. Made only minor adjustments to fit/trend
from 10Z observations.
Clouds still linger across some interior spots and across the
forks of Long Island, and that should remain the case for
today. In fact, after a mostly sunny morning elsewhere they may
expand farther south this afternoon with approach of a mid
level shortwave trough to provide lift. Downslope WNW flow
should help temps to rise to the lower/mid 60s, then SW sea
breezes should develop along the coast this afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clouds should linger tonight in weakly cyclonic low level flow,
especially inland NW of NYC where additional lift via a passing
mid level shortwave and the left exit region of an approaching
mid level jet streak will be present after midnight, which may
also spark an isolated rain or snow shower in Orange County.
Issued frost advisory for northernmost tier counties NW as
temps fall to the mid 30s; elsewhere lows should fall to the mid
40s in NYC, and the upper 30s/lower 40s in the suburbs and
along the coast.
A series of additional upper level jet streaks and mid level
vort maxima pivoting around a closed low over ern Canada may
provide another chance for diurnal showers across SE CT Tue
afternoon and then mainly NW of NYC Wed afternoon.
Temps in this air mass not expected to deviate much for Tue-Wed,
though temps late Tue night/early Wed morning may be a touch
colder outside of NYC, with another round of frost advisories
encompassing more of the interior possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper low remains across southern Canada Wednesday night into
Thursday night. A shortwave moving into the upper low will
amplify a trough through the central states Friday into
Saturday, and then evolve into a negatively tilted trough that
will affect the area Sunday into the beginning of next week.
There will be some weak upper ridging across the area Thursday
into Friday. Meanwhile, at the surface a weak low, or surface
trough, moves through the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure builds remains to the north into the weekend,
moving east Sunday. This high will influence the track of a
deepening low that will move south of the area Friday into
Saturday night. With the uncertainty used the NBM probabilities,
with low end chance and slight chance across the area Friday
into Saturday night. The uncertainty the continues into Sunday
and next week with the evolution of surface low pressure
associated with the upper trough becoming negative, and where
the surface low will track, likely remaining well to the west of
the area. Once again, mainly used the NBM probabilities, and
capped at high end chance, lowering from the likely NBM
probabilities Sunday and Sunday night.
Temperatures through the extended period will be near seasonal
normals and used the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR as high pressure slowly builds in, with a weak surface
trough developing late morning into the afternoon. The exception
to VFR is at KGON with IFR in stratus and fog, improving to VFR
14Z, possibly as late as 15Z.
NW winds 10 kt or less back more westerly late this morning and
early afternoon. Sea breezes probably develop, affecting mainly
KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. Winds become NW this evening, and light and
variable at the outlying terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There may be occasional gusts to around 15 kt as winds back to
W this afternoon, except at KJFK with a sea breeze. Low chance
that the sea breeze reaches KEWR or KLGA late in the day, toward
22Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. A chance of showers in the afternoon and at
night.
Thursday: VFR. A slight chance of showers along the coast, and a
chance inland.
Friday: VFR, becoming MVFR with a chance of showers late in the
day and at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sea at 10Z had fallen just below 5 ft at 44025, so cancelled
SCA on the ocean west of Moriches Inlet. SCA continues til 15Z
farther east, with 5-ft seas still in progress farther offshore
but not impacting the near shore waters.
Wednesday night through through Thursday night winds and seas
remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters with a
weak pressure gradient. An approaching, and deepening, low
pressure system to the south will increase an easterly flow
across the waters during Friday and Friday night with ocean seas
building to over 5 feet during Friday. Wind gusts on the ocean
waters will be marginal at SCA levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no anticipated hydrologic concerns through the entire
forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET