000
FXUS61 KOKX 241418
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1018 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build toward the area into Wednesday,
while a series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A
weak low pressure trough will then move across Wednesday night
into Thursday. High pressure returns briefly Thursday night.
Deepening low pressure passes to the south Friday into Saturday
night. Another low deepening low to the west impacts the region
Sunday into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast on track. Some clouds still linger across some
interior spots and across the forks of Long Island, and that
should remain the case for today. In fact, after a mostly sunny
morning elsewhere they may expand farther south this afternoon
with approach of a mid level shortwave trough to provide lift.
Downslope WNW flow should help temps to rise to the lower/mid
60s, then SW sea breezes should develop along the coast this
afternoon.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clouds should linger tonight in weakly cyclonic low level flow,
especially inland NW of NYC where additional lift via a passing
mid level shortwave and the left exit region of an approaching
mid level jet streak will be present after midnight, which may
also spark an isolated rain or snow shower in Orange County.
Issued frost advisory for northernmost tier counties NW as
temps fall to the mid 30s; elsewhere lows should fall to the mid
40s in NYC, and the upper 30s/lower 40s in the suburbs and
along the coast.
A series of additional upper level jet streaks and mid level
vort maxima pivoting around a closed low over ern Canada may
provide another chance for diurnal showers across SE CT Tue
afternoon and then mainly NW of NYC Wed afternoon.
Temps in this air mass not expected to deviate much for Tue-Wed,
though temps late Tue night/early Wed morning may be a touch
colder outside of NYC, with another round of frost advisories
encompassing more of the interior possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper low remains across southern Canada Wednesday night into
Thursday night. A shortwave moving into the upper low will
amplify a trough through the central states Friday into
Saturday, and then evolve into a negatively tilted trough that
will affect the area Sunday into the beginning of next week.
There will be some weak upper ridging across the area Thursday
into Friday. Meanwhile, at the surface a weak low, or surface
trough, moves through the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure builds remains to the north into the weekend,
moving east Sunday. This high will influence the track of a
deepening low that will move south of the area Friday into
Saturday night. With the uncertainty used the NBM probabilities,
with low end chance and slight chance across the area Friday
into Saturday night. The uncertainty the continues into Sunday
and next week with the evolution of surface low pressure
associated with the upper trough becoming negative, and where
the surface low will track, likely remaining well to the west of
the area. Once again, mainly used the NBM probabilities, and
capped at high end chance, lowering from the likely NBM
probabilities Sunday and Sunday night.
Temperatures through the extended period will be near seasonal
normals and used the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mainly VFR as high pressure slowly builds in, with a weak
surface trough developing late this morning into the afternoon.
The exception to VFR is some pockets of MVFR at KHPN and KISP
this morning.
NW winds under 10 kt or less back more westerly late this
morning and early afternoon. Sea breezes likely develop,
affecting mainly KJFK/KISP/KBDR/KGON. Winds become NW this
evening, and light and variable at outlying terminals.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
There may be occasional gusts to around 15 kt as winds back to
W this afternoon, except at KJFK.
Low chance that the sea breeze reaches KEWR or KLGA late in the
day, toward 22Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. A chance of showers in the afternoon and at
night.
Thursday: VFR. A slight chance of showers along the coast, and a
chance inland.
Friday: VFR, becoming MVFR with a chance of showers late in the
day and at night.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas blw sca lvls thru Wed. Wednesday night through
through Thursday night winds and seas remain below advisory
levels across the forecast waters with a weak pressure gradient.
An approaching, and deepening, low pressure system to the south
will increase an easterly flow across the waters during Friday
and Friday night with ocean seas building to over 5 feet during
Friday. Wind gusts on the ocean waters will be marginal at SCA
levels.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no anticipated hydrologic concerns through the entire
forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET