000
FXUS61 KOKX 241720
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
120 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly build toward the area into Wednesday,
while a series of weak upper level disturbances move across. A
weak low pressure trough will then move across Wednesday night
into Thursday. High pressure returns briefly Thursday night.
Deepening low pressure passes to the south Friday into Saturday
night. Another low deepening low to the west impacts the region
Sunday into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains in on track for this aftn. Clouds across the
interior and across the forks of Long Island, and that should
remain the case for today. In fact, the cloud cover may expand
across the entire area this afternoon with approach of a mid
level shortwave trough to provide lift. Downslope WNW flow
should help temps to rise to the lower/mid 60s, then SW sea
breezes should develop along the coast this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clouds should linger tonight in weakly cyclonic low level flow,
especially inland NW of NYC where additional lift via a passing
mid level shortwave and the left exit region of an approaching
mid level jet streak will be present after midnight, which may
also spark an isolated rain or snow shower in Orange County.
Issued frost advisory for northernmost tier counties NW as
temps fall to the mid 30s; elsewhere lows should fall to the mid
40s in NYC, and the upper 30s/lower 40s in the suburbs and
along the coast.
A series of additional upper level jet streaks and mid level
vort maxima pivoting around a closed low over ern Canada may
provide another chance for diurnal showers across SE CT Tue
afternoon and then mainly NW of NYC Wed afternoon.
Temps in this air mass not expected to deviate much for Tue-Wed,
though temps late Tue night/early Wed morning may be a touch
colder outside of NYC, with another round of frost advisories
encompassing more of the interior possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper low remains across southern Canada Wednesday night into
Thursday night. A shortwave moving into the upper low will
amplify a trough through the central states Friday into
Saturday, and then evolve into a negatively tilted trough that
will affect the area Sunday into the beginning of next week.
There will be some weak upper ridging across the area Thursday
into Friday. Meanwhile, at the surface a weak low, or surface
trough, moves through the region Wednesday night into Thursday.
High pressure builds remains to the north into the weekend,
moving east Sunday. This high will influence the track of a
deepening low that will move south of the area Friday into
Saturday night. With the uncertainty used the NBM probabilities,
with low end chance and slight chance across the area Friday
into Saturday night. The uncertainty the continues into Sunday
and next week with the evolution of surface low pressure
associated with the upper trough becoming negative, and where
the surface low will track, likely remaining well to the west of
the area. Once again, mainly used the NBM probabilities, and
capped at high end chance, lowering from the likely NBM
probabilities Sunday and Sunday night.
Temperatures through the extended period will be near seasonal
normals and used the NBM.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A weak surface trough develops this afternoon. High pressure
will otherwise build in through Tuesday with VFR conditions
through the TAF period.
W-WSW winds this afternoon 10 kt or less except for south facing
coastal terminals with a SSW-S sea breeze. Winds will weaken after
sunset, becoming SW-W through the night.
A light NW flow is expected Tuesday morning increasing to 10 kt or
less by afternoon. Winds may back towards the W or SW in the
afternoon near the coast, but a S sea breeze looks unlikely.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
A few gusts around 15 kt possible at KEWR and KTEB this
afternoon.
Wind direction at KLGA may be variable 18-20z.
Low chance that the sea breeze reaches KEWR and KLGA early evening
around 22z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
Tuesday Afternoon-Night: VFR.
Wednesday: VFR. A chance of showers in the late afternoon into the
night.
Thursday: VFR. Shower possible.
Friday-Saturday: Chance of MVFR. Showers possible late Friday into
Saturday. E wind gusts 15-25 kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas blw sca lvls thru Wed. Wednesday night through
through Thursday night winds and seas remain below advisory
levels across the forecast waters with a weak pressure gradient.
An approaching, and deepening, low pressure system to the south
will increase an easterly flow across the waters during Friday
and Friday night with ocean seas building to over 5 feet during
Friday. Wind gusts on the ocean waters will be marginal at SCA
levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no anticipated hydrologic concerns through the entire
forecast period.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...12/BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...12/BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET