000
FXUS61 KOKX 252004
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in from the west through Wednesday morning,
giving way to a weak area of low pressure that moves across the
region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The area of low
pressure moves southeast on Thursday, followed by high pressure
Thursday night. The high retreats to the northeast through the
weekend. A series of lows will then move near to southeast of
the region this weekend into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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A large upper low centered just north of the Great Lakes this
evening will continue to fill and lift slowly northward into
Wednesday. At the same time, weak surface high pressure its
south will build in across the area through morning. Any clouds
and sprinkle/showers early this evening will quickly come to an
end with the loss of daytime heating and dissipation of a
surface trough across the area.

Light and variable winds tonight with clear skies will allow for
good radiational cooling. Areas of frost are once again likely
across portions of interior SW CT, the Lower Hudson Valley, and
NE NJ, where a Frost Advisory is in effect. Patchy frost will be
possible across adjacent outlying areas as will as the Pine
Barrens region of Long Island.

Lows will range from the lower to mid 30s across the interior
and Pine Barrens Region of Long Island, to the mid 40s across
the NYC metro.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure over the area in the morning gives way to a trough
of low pressure approaching from the eastern Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley states. This coupled with another day of weak flow,
local seabreezes, and steepening lapse rates will allow for
chances of showers to gradually increase from west to east on
Wednesday, but mainly during the afternoon and nighttime hours.
Rainfall amounts will generally be a tenth of an inch or less by
the time all is said done. Instability is marginal and for the
time will leave out the mention of thunder.

Due to the cloud cover, highs will once again approach 60,
remaining several degrees below normal. However, lows Wednesday
night, will be warmer for the same reason, ranging from around
40 inland, to around 50 across the NYC metro.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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he airmass will be transitioning from continental to more maritime
for late this week into this weekend. Rain is in the forecast much
of the long term period.

The winds will be light Thursday into Thursday night but will gain a
greater easterly component. The forecast has a chance of rain
showers Thursday with mainly dry conditions for Thursday night
through Friday.

The easterly winds pick up in intensity Friday night through the
weekend as a series of lows pass near to the southeast of the
region. The weather forecast models vary with their depiction of the
position and track of each of the low pressure systems. However, the
coherent signals amongst the models show rain to be likely at times
along with cooler than normal temperatures. Winds could be quite
gusty along the coast.

Exact details with timing of rainfall and rain amounts will vary
with each weather forecast model and there are still remarkable
differences which will also have resultant differences in
temperatures as well.

The forecast models convey the low to move north and east of the
area Monday into Tuesday of next week. Rain chances will lower but
temperatures are not forecast to change too much with low pressure
still not too far away to the northeast of the area.

Blended NBM with consensus of raw model data to make temperatures
cooler for the weekend and into next week with the low pressure area
and unsettled weather. NBM appears to be too warm considering the
rainfall and breezy easterly surface winds in the area.
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&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A trough over the area dissipates early this evening with high
pressure building in behind it. Generally VFR through the
forecast period. Any showers will end by late this afternoon.

SW winds shift to the W then N and NE overnight at 10 kt or less. An
occasional gust to 15 kt is possible in the metro terminals, but is
more likely for KEWR until around sunset. Winds at all terminals may
become light and variable overnight. Winds then turn S or SE on
Wednesday with the high shifting offshore, speeds remain 10 kt or
less. KLGA may remain more NE through much of Wednesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts to 15 kt possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday: VFR. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon into the
night with MVFR possible.

Thursday: VFR. Possible rain showers and MVFR, mainly east of NYC
terminals during the day.

Friday: Mainly VFR. E wind gusts 15-20 kt.

Friday Night-Saturday: Increasing chances of rain showers.
Possible MVFR or lower at times. E wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain. E to SE winds 15 to around 20 kt
sustained with gusts 25 to around 30 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory levels
through Friday as high pressure builds toward the waters
through tonight. A weak area of low pressure moves through the
waters Wednesday night into early Thursday.

There will be an increase in easterly flow Friday night with
eventual return to SCA conditions on the ocean late Friday night
with otherwise conditions on other waters remaining below SCA
thresholds. SCA seas likely to stay on the ocean for the whole
weekend with SCA wind gusts on all waters likely for the weekend
as well. For Sunday and Sunday night, much of the waters could
potentially reach gale force with their wind gusts.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Widespread rain looks likely for this weekend into early next week
with a few inches of rain accumulation possible. The rain looks to
be spread across multiple days. Though, there could be at times some
locally heavy rain. It is difficult to determine specific hydrologic
impacts at this point in time besides minor flooding in the poor
drainage and low lying areas which would be possible with repeated
episodes of heavy rain.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW