000
FXUS61 KOKX 252313
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
713 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west through Wednesday morning,
giving way to a weak area of low pressure that moves across the
region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The area of low
pressure moves southeast on Thursday, followed by high pressure
Thursday night. The high retreats to the northeast through the
weekend. A series of lows will then move near to southeast of
the region this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Some adjustments were made to cloud coverage over the next few
hours to better match observed trends. Otherwise, no other
significant changes were made to the forecast database. The
forecast is on track.
A large upper low centered just north of the Great Lakes this
evening will continue to fill and lift slowly northward into
Wednesday. At the same time, weak surface high pressure its
south will build in across the area through morning. Clouds are
expected to gradually diminish in coverage later this evening
into overnight.
Light and variable winds tonight with clear skies will allow for
good radiational cooling. Areas of frost are once again likely
across portions of interior SW CT, the Lower Hudson Valley, and
NE NJ, where a Frost Advisory is in effect. Patchy frost will be
possible across adjacent outlying areas as will as the Pine
Barrens region of Long Island.
Lows will range from the lower to mid 30s across the interior
and Pine Barrens Region of Long Island, to the mid 40s across
the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure over the area in the morning gives way to a trough
of low pressure approaching from the eastern Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley states. This coupled with another day of weak flow,
local seabreezes, and steepening lapse rates will allow for
chances of showers to gradually increase from west to east on
Wednesday, but mainly during the afternoon and nighttime hours.
Rainfall amounts will generally be a tenth of an inch or less by
the time all is said and done. Instability is marginal and for
the time will leave out the mention of thunder.
Due to the cloud cover, highs will once again approach 60,
remaining several degrees below normal. However, lows Wednesday
night, will be warmer for the same reason, ranging from around
40 inland, to around 50 across the NYC metro.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
After an upper level shortwave exits Thursday morning into
early afternoon, there is forecast to be upper level ridging
rest of Thursday through Friday. Forecast has more upper level
toughing thereafter, with a highly amplified trough approaching
for Sunday night into early next week.
The increased meridional component Sunday night into Monday will
increase the precipitable waters, getting potentially up to
near 1.3 to 1.4 inches Sunday night into Monday. According to
OKX sounding climatology available from SPC, this value will be
well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Some model
data is indicating potential for elevated instability in this
same timeframe. The accompanying surface low will potentially
be the stronger one in the series of lows to move near or
southeast of the region. The enhanced lift and moisture will
make for a relatively higher chance of heavy rain at times
Sunday night into early Monday. Did not put any thunder into
forecast yet with model inconsistency, but there could be an
isolated embedded thunderstorm as well.
The airmass will be transitioning from continental to more
maritime for late this week into this weekend. Rain is in the
forecast much of the long term period.
The winds will be light Thursday into Thursday night but will gain a
greater easterly component. The forecast has a chance of rain
showers Thursday with mainly dry conditions for Thursday night
through Friday.
The easterly winds pick up in intensity Friday night through the
weekend as a series of lows pass near to the southeast of the
region. The weather forecast models vary with their depiction of the
position and track of each of the low pressure systems. However, the
coherent signals amongst the models show rain to be likely at times
along with cooler than normal temperatures. Winds could be quite
gusty along the coast with potential for gusts near 30 to 40
mph.
Exact details with timing of rainfall and rain amounts will vary
with each weather forecast model and these differences will
also have resultant differences in temperatures as well.
The forecast models convey the low to move north and east of the
area Monday into Tuesday of next week. Rain chances will lower but
temperatures are not forecast to change too much with low pressure
still not too far away to the northeast of the area.
Blended NBM with consensus of raw model data to make temperatures
cooler for the weekend and into early next week with the low
pressure area and unsettled weather. NBM appears to be too warm
considering the rainfall and breezy easterly surface winds in
the area.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A trough over the area dissipates this evening with high pressure
building tonight. The high gives way to a weak area of low pressure
moving across the region late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance for MVFR with
showers Wednesday evening.
Winds will diminish this evening and become light and variable at
outlying terminals. At NYC terminals, winds should become W-NW
around 5 kt tonight and then N-NE into early Wednesday morning.
Winds will become SE middle to late Wednesday morning and continue
into the afternoon and evening around 10 kt or less.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Some variability in wind direction possible this evening at KEWR and
KLGA. Winds should become W to NW at JFK this evening, but timing
may be off by 1-2 hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Wednesday Night: A chance of showers with MVFR possible.
Thursday: MVFR possible in the morning, chance of a shower early.
Slight chance of a shower east of NYC terminals in the afternoon.
Friday-Friday Night: VFR during the day, then MVFR or lower possible
in increasing chance of showers at night. E wind gusts 15-20 kt at
night.
Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. E wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain. E to SE winds 15-20 kt gusting 25-30
kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory levels
through Friday as high pressure builds toward the waters
through tonight. A weak area of low pressure moves through the
waters Wednesday night into early Thursday.
There will be an increase in easterly flow Friday night with
eventual return to SCA conditions on the ocean late Friday night
with otherwise conditions on other waters remaining below SCA
thresholds. SCA seas likely to stay on the ocean for the whole
weekend with SCA wind gusts on all waters likely for the weekend
as well. For Sunday and Sunday night, much of the waters could
potentially reach gale force with their wind gusts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rain looks likely for this weekend into early next week
with a few inches of rain accumulation possible. The rain looks to
be spread across multiple days. Though, there could be at times some
locally heavy rain. It is difficult to determine specific hydrologic
impacts at this point in time besides minor flooding in the poor
drainage and low lying areas which would be possible with repeated
episodes of heavy rain.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005.
NY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ002.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/DW
HYDROLOGY...JM/DW