000
FXUS61 KOKX 261527
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1127 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region moves off the northeast coast today.
A weak area of low pressure moves across the region tonight into
Thursday morning. High pressure builds into the area behind the
low, and remains Thursday night. High pressure exits offshore
on Friday as a frontal system approaches from the west, moving
through the region Saturday. A second area of low pressure
develops in the Southeast this weekend, impacting the region
into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Forecast is generally on track. Increased POPs a bit farther
east as an areas of showers over northeast and north central New
Jersey makes its way into northwest New Jersey and into New York
City and Nassau County over the next hour or so.
Upper low pressure remains centered north of the Great Lakes
today and sends a weak shortwave across the region today. At the
surface a weak trough or area of low pressure across central
and western Pennsylvania was producing light rain showers. As
this low moves slowly eastward the chances of showers increases
from west to east. High pressure moving off the northeast coast
will slow the progression of the low. Thunder is not expected
with little to no instability, and minimal CAPE.
With increasing cloud cover, and a southeasterly flow
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The evolving upper low north of the Great Lakes region remains
tonight into Thursday and becomes a negative open trough. The
surface trough/low continues to track slowly east tonight into
Thursday, moving east of the region late Thursday as an upper
ridge and surface high build into the region. The chance for
showers will remain tonight into Thursday, with no thunder as
instability and CAPE remain minimal. With clearing expected
Thursday high temperatures will be near seasonal normals. The
high moves off to the northeast Thursday night as low pressure
begins to approach to the southwest.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An active spring pattern sets up in the long term period, with
multiple rounds of rain expected.
The front half of Friday remains dry, with weak high pressure
retreating to the northeast as a mid-level shortwave and surface
low approach from the south and west. Increasing cloud cover in
the afternoon should give way to scattered rain showers by
evening, which likely continues overnight into much of Saturday
as a weak frontal wave develops along the coast.
Meanwhile, a more potent disturbance dives south across the
Central US. Ensembles continue to signal a deepening area of low
pressure along the East Coast Sunday into Monday as the trough
becomes negatively tilted.
Conditions may dry briefly Sunday as the one system departs and
the second is a bit slow to approach. Global models continue to
bounce around though with specific solutions, and Sunday
afternoon may end up predominantly dry before the intensifying
low arrives late Sunday into Monday. Capped PoPs at chance (50%)
Sunday afternoon given this trend. A strong jet oriented
overhead will aid divergence aloft and the potential for heavy
rain, and an increasing LLJ will enhance the potential for some
gusty winds, especially on Monday.
NBM probabilities for 2" or greater of rainfall from the system
have nudged up slightly compared to yesterday`s cycles, with a
widespread 25-50% likelihood. This instills a bit more
confidence of a higher QPF event than we`ve seen recently. WPC
added a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Days 4-5
(Sun/Mon), which seems reasonable at this point. The storm
itself exits by Tuesday, though the upper low lingers nearby
into the middle of next week, maintaining the chance for showers
and cloud cover.
The persistent onshore flow and wet weather will keep
temperatures through the period below normals for the time of
year. Other than previously noted, national blended guidance was
followed with subtle adjustments.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure shifts offshore this morning, giving way to a
weak area of low pressure that moves across the region tonight.
MVFR cigs at KISP. KBDR, and KGON should mix out by 16Z.
Mainly VFR through the afternoon, with isolated showers
through much of day, especially for the NYC and Lower Hudson
Valley terminals. Gradually lowering cigs give way to MVFR
conds with scattered rain showers tonight. IFR conds possible
after 6z Thu.
Winds will veer to the SE by this afternoon with local
seabreeze enhancements.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Wind shifts may be off by an hour or two.
IFR conds possible, especially after 6z Thu.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
Thursday: MVFR/IFR in the morning as showers taper. Slight
chance of a shower east of NYC terminals in the afternoon.
Friday-Friday Night: VFR during the day, then MVFR or lower possible
in increasing chance of showers at night. E wind gusts 15-20 kt at
night.
Saturday: MVFR or lower in rain. E wind gusts 20-25 kt.
Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain. E to SE winds 15-20 kt gusting 25-30
kt.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory levels through
Friday with high pressure over the waters today, and a weak
area of low pressure that passe through the waters tonight into
Thursday. High pressure then returns Thursday night and moves
northeast Friday.
Low pressure passing through the waters late Friday into
Saturday will lead to an increasing easterly flow.
SCA conds return this weekend as ocean seas build to 5 ft by
early Saturday morning, and remain elevated into early next
week. E gusts 25-30 kt develop on most waters on Saturday,
potentially continuing through the remainder of the weekend as
another area of low pressure approaches and moves through into
early next week.
A period of gales is possible, especially on the ocean, Sunday
into Monday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected with showers today into
Thursday.
A series of systems impact the region late Friday into early
next week, bringing several rounds of rain that may be locally
heavy rain at times.
Hydrologic impacts are possible, with minor flooding in urban, poor
drainage, and low-lying areas the most likely solution at this time.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR/MET
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DR/DW
MARINE...DR/MET
HYDROLOGY...DR/MET