000
FXUS61 KOKX 281826
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
226 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure approaches the area from the southwest today, and
impacts the area tonight and Saturday. A stronger low passes through
the region Sunday night. The low then meanders over the
northeast into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Minor adjustments made this update to account for latest
observations and trends.

Clouds will lower and and thicken through the day as a warm
frontal wave along the Carolina coast tracks slowly north.
Increasing lift ahead of the low will bring chances for rain to
the southwest portions of the forecast area by the end of the
day. Most other areas are expected to remain dry.

The NBM looked reasonable for temps and was used for the fcst.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The low will continue gradually nwd tngt. With an increasing pres
grad ahead of the low, ely component winds will strengthen.
Strongest winds should be LI and coastal CT. Areas of rain will also
develop overnight as mid lvl frogen increases. The periods of rain
along with brisk ely winds will then continue thru the day on Sat.

Mid lvl dry air increases thru the day on Sat, so pcpn intensity
should decrease accordingly, perhaps winding down as a hvy dz
particularly ern areas.

The low dissipates in the region, possibly right over LI, Sat
ngt into Sun, as stronger low pres over the Southeast begins to
take over. This low is progged to track over the area Sun ngt as
a 980s low. The 00Z models are in good agreement thus far with
the track, but some changes are possible as the event is still a
few days away.

Based on the current track, a round of mdt to hvy rain can be
expected late Sun thru Sun eve, with perhaps some embedded tstms,
before the area gets dry slotted aft midnight. Winds fairly lgt in
this scenario due to the low track.

The strongest winds are on the ern flank of the low, so a
significant wwd trend would present a wind threat to the area.

The NBM was used for temps thru the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Closed 500mb low and attendant surface low slowly shift from the
Great Lakes Region Monday and Tuesday into the Northeast on
Wednesday before exiting east on Thursday. Have left in low chances
of showers on Monday although the day could potentially be dry all
day as the best combination of moisture and lift will be to the
west. It`ll be breezy, with high temperatures 60-65, which is below
normal. With the low shifting east, have chances of showers for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Left in slight chance of showers for Thursday
as the system heads out to sea. Highs only 55-60 for Tuesday and
Wednesday, then a little warmer for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure remains in control today, then low pressure
approaches from the SW tonight.

VFR today. Flight categories lower to MVFR tonight with rain
moving in, possibly as early as 22Z but likely after 00Z for the
NYC terminals. Categories continue to lower overnight to IFR.
Eastern terminals will take longer for categories to drop to
MVFR and IFR.

Light rain showers move in tonight becoming more steady
overnight. Visibilities expected to decrease to less than 3SM
in steadier rain after 6Z, mainly for western terminals and
slowly expending to eastern terminals through Saturday morning.
Light to moderate rain continues through much of the day on
Saturday, possibly becoming more showery by the afternoon for
the NYC terminals.

E/SE winds 10-15kt with some gusts upwards of 20-25kt this
afternoon. Winds increase this evening. Frequent gusts 20-25 kt
are expected this evening increasing to 30-35 kt gusts between
6-12Z Saturday. Gusty E winds continue through much of the day
on Saturday before slowly weakening into the late afternoon.

LLWS possible after around 09z Sat as E winds at 2KFT
potentially reach 40-45kt for a few hours. Not confident enough
to include in the TAFs at this time.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts this afternoon might be only occasional. Timing of rain
and MVFR onset tonight may be 1-2 hours off. Timing of
additional category changes may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday: Rain with MVFR/IFR. E wind gusts near 25-30 kt for
most terminals except KSWF which will be closer to 25 kt. Gusts
eventually subside at night.

Sunday: MVFR or lower. Rain, slight chance of thunderstorms at
night. SE wind gusts near 20 kt during the day. SE-SW wind gusts
near 20 kt at night.

Monday: Slight chance of rain showers and MVFR during the day.
Otherwise VFR. SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: Chance of rain showers and MVFR, mainly during the day.
SW wind gusts 15-20kt.

Wednesday: Chance of rain showers and MVFR during the day. W/NW
gusts 15-20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
SCA hoisted on the ocean zones west of Moriches Inlet as seas at
the offshore buoys were around 5 ft with gusts around 25 kt.

Strengthening winds tngt into Sat ahead of low pres. A sca for
all areas tngt. For Sat,a gale wrng on the ocean, a sca for the
harbor, and a gale watch elsewhere. Winds decrease Sat ngt, then
increase a bit late Sun ahead of another low. Because the low
is expected to track over the waters however, winds are expected
to stay at least blw gale. Seas on the ocean will stay abv sca
lvls Sat ngt thru Sun ngt.

A lingering swell will keep ocean seas elevated above 5 ft into
Tuesday. Otherwise, winds ramp up on Monday with a WSW flow
developing on the backside of the storm. SCA conds expected on all
waters on Monday. Winds then diminish Monday night with frequent
gusts below 25 kt by midnight.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A storm system will produce around an inch of rain late today
and Sat. A few pockets of heavier rainfall are possible. Some
minor poor drainage flooding will be possible in these areas.

An additional inch to inch and a half of rainfall is possible
mainly late Sunday into Sunday night. Mainly minor
nuisance/urban flooding would be the extent of hydrologic
impacts.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A strong SE flow due to a deepening low pressure on Sunday may bring
high tide levels Sunday evening to minor flood benchmarks. The main
concern at this time appears to be for the south shore Back Bays and
SW CT coast along the Western Long Island Sound. Tides are
relatively low astronomically, so approximately 2 to 3 ft surge is
needed to bring water levels to minor flooding at these locations
Sunday evening.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-340-345-350.
     Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon
     for ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12/JC
NEAR TERM...12/DW
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...12/JC
HYDROLOGY...12/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...