000
FXUS61 KOKX 011130
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
730 AM EDT Mon May 1 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks north of the area today then meanders over
the Great Lakes before slowing moving over the northeast through
the middle of the week. An upper level low then lingers over the
area through the end of the week. High pressure begins to build in
over the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 982 low was analyzed over the Adirondacks at 9Z. The low will
continue to track nwd this mrng.
Drying from S to N can be expected this mrng with a dry air
intrusion and subsidence. Some remaining fog across ern areas
will scour out as winds increase out of the W behind the low.
Pops have been limited to slight chance for the remainder of the
mrng.
Breezy today with gusts in the 20-30 mph range behind the
departing low. Deep mixing should bring temps to around 60. The
NBM looked reasonable and was followed.
Despite subsidence aloft, some mid lvl forcing by aftn along
with steep lapse rates are progged to trigger some shwrs,
especially wrn areas. All areas should go bkn-ovc this aftn.
There is some weak SBCAPE modeled for the entire area, so some
low topped tstms possible. Due to coverage and timing
uncertainty, along with the limiting factor of subsidence, tstms
were not included in the fcst attm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Some stronger forcing comes thru tngt. This could trigger some
more shwrs despite the relatively less favorable nighttime
period due to the strength of the energy associated with the
approaching upr low. Lapse rates aloft should still be steep as
well. Additional shwrs can be expected on Tue as the h5 low
spins over upstate NY. NBM pops are categorical for much of the
area. Due to the good model agreement, followed the NBM pops.
There is again a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE on Tue so isold-sct
tstms cannot be ruled out. Decreasing chances for pcpn Tue ngt
with the loss of daytime heating.
Temps will be blw climo thru the period. The NBM with some local
adjustments was used.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little change is expected with the upper low on Wednesday as it
is progged to meander over the northeast. Showers and potentially
low topped convection should develop in the afternoon with
steepening lapse rates with the cold pool aloft. Any enhanced
convection could produce some thunder and perhaps some small
hail. Subsequent forecasts may need to add a chance of thunder
if probabilities increase. Highs again will only be in the 50s.
The upper low moves off the New England coast on Thursday, but upper
level troughing and low heights remain into the end of the week.
While probabilities are lower, a few showers remain possible,
especially in the afternoon each day. Temperatures may be slightly
higher to end the week, but still below normal in the upper 50s to
near 60 degrees.
High pressure then attempts to build in from the west over the
weekend as ridging builds over the Midwest. This should result in
drier conditions, and a warming trend. NBM temperatures on Sunday
have the region reaching 65-70 for highs.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A broad area of low pressure remains over the region today into
tonight.
VFR. Shra possible late today and tonight, but probably doesn`t
lower flight categories. An isolated tstm cannot be ruled out as
well, but probability of occurrence is too low to include in
TAFs.
W-WSW winds back SW this morning at 15-20kt with gusts 25-35kt.
Winds diminish late aftn/early evening with gusts ending by
midnight.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Occasional peak gusts up 35kt possible through this afternoon.
Shift to SW and end time of frequent gusts may be off by 1-2
hours.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Showers likely mainly in the morning with
a chance of MVFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt.
Wednesday - Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and MVFR at
times.
Friday: VFR in the morning. Chance of afternoon showers with
MVFR possible.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.MARINE...
Increasing W winds this mrng with sca cond today on all waters
as low pres exits. Winds decrease this eve, but seas on the
ocean remain aoa 5 ft thru Tue. The sca was extended thru the
day on Tue on the ocean, and may need to be extended thru Tue
ngt. Seas subside on Wednesday with conditions on all waters
remaining below SCA levels thru the end of the week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Residual minor flooding can be expected this mrng. Otherwise, no
additional hydrologic impacts are expected through next weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...